Get to know the Providence guard who could be in play for Phoenix at No. 22.
Editor’s note: The NBA Draft is on June 26 and with the Suns possessing their first round pick (No. 22), it would behoove us to get to know what picks are available and who to scout as we prepare for the draft. Enter Damon Allred, Bright Side’s resident college basketball scouting expert.
Time to dive into the 2024 NBA Draft through a Phoenix Suns lens, beginning with a guard who can potentially be the stabilizer in the rotation both on the ball and away from it. Meet Providence guard Devin Carter.
Vitals
6-foot-3, 195 pounds, ~6-foot-7 wingspan, 22 years, three months, and eight days on draft day (more accurate measurables to be taken at the combine, which he got an invite to).
Background
Taking it all the way back to high school, Carter’s senior season at Doral Academy in Florida was cut short due to a shoulder injury, so he spent a postgraduate season at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire before starting his collegiate career.
When he finished his season at Brewster, Carter was ranked No. 87 overall in the 2021 class, according to 247Sports. He elected to sign with South Carolina over other offers such as Georgia Tech, Florida Atlantic, and Richmond.
Carter played consistent reserve minutes as a freshman in Columbia (18.7 minutes per game over 30 games, seven starts), but he decided to transfer to Providence and commit to head coach Ed Cooley.
He flashed in a bigger role as a sophomore for Providence (32 minutes per game in 33 starts), but he didn’t quite look like an NBA-ready player yet. And after the season (21-12), Cooley would leave to become the head coach at Georgetown (9-13).
Kim English replaced Cooley and would play a big part in Carter taking a big step forward as a junior, empowering the guard as a shooter and creator. When Bryce Hopkins — who nearly led the Friars in usage the season prior — went down for the season with an injury, Carter’s leap was brought to the forefront.
Before the injury, Carter was averaging 16.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists (3.2 turnovers), and 1.4 steals per game over 13 games.
After Hopkins went down, Carter averaged 22 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists (2.4 turnovers), and two steals per game over 20 games.
For his efforts on a team that nearly made the NCAA Tournament despite not much help outside of himself, Carter was named Big East Player of the Year. He led the conference in points per game (19.7) and was 12th in assists per game (3.6).
He is also the son of Anthony Carter, who played 13 seasons in the NBA from 1999-2012 and is now an assistant on Taylor Jenkins’ Memphis Grizzlies coaching staff.
Film Breakdown
Carter did everything for the Friars in 2023-24. From skying for boards and pushing the pace to using his post game in the half court to cashing deep 3s in a pinch, it seemed like he was always there when Providence needed someone.
Carter even will run around off ball before setting a screen to get a teammate going downhill toward the rim, akin to the screen Devin Booker set off ball to open up Deandre Ayton’s Valley-oop in the playoffs three years ago.
He flashes elite defense at the point of attack, but he really excels as a helper, providing extra digs to mess with an opposing player’s rhythm or soaring through the air for a two-handed volleyball swat. He has a great nose for where to be at the right time.
Carter does struggle at times to get through screens, but the way he approaches them makes it look like it might be a schematic plan for how the Friars guarded ball screens. In any case, it wasn’t successful a good chunk of times.
His best stuff comes when he can turn disruptive plays into opportunities for his own team, as he was one of the nation’s best players in transition. It was the play type through which he generated the most points all season.
At other times, he can get bogged down in the half court when defenses can close off driving and passing lanes. Longer, pressuring defenses can be the key to slowing him down, but he also has the strength to just go through guys who aren’t better prepared.
He’s tough as hell, able to take beatings inside whether he’s posting up, crashing the glass or attacking the paint. I’ve watched him play through several different physical issues.
His shot looks good, and he gets into a wide base even off the dribble, meaning he has a balanced and controlled release. He gets good elevation on fadeaways.
Key Stats
Because of the coaching from English that included some restructuring of his shooting form, Carter’s 3-point shooting jumped up from 28.8% on 2.8 attempts per game over his first two seasons to 37.7% on 6.8 attempts per game as a junior.
Looking closer at where the 3s came from in the more efficient junior season, it comes as no surprise that his off-catch looks would be the most effective, coming in at 40.2%, but his guarded shots hit more often (44.9%) than the open looks (32.7%), funny enough.
His pull-up 3s fell at a respectable rate of 34%, giving encouraging signs that he can shoot it well on or off the ball.
Additionally encouraging is Carter’s 65.9% mark at the rim, which includes 25 dunks. That efficiency of 1.32 points per shot is good for 82nd percentile in Division 1, according to Synergy. He got there 5.3 times per game, which is quite impressive given the 6-foot-3 frame.
But is this enough to run the show on his own further down in the rotation?
His 1.271 points per possessions plus assists mark ranks in the 85th percentile in Division 1, and it’s over an astounding sample size of 627 possessions (19 per game), according to Synergy.
Carter had a sky-high usage rate of 28.1%, but he rocked an assist percentage to turnover percentage of 23.3% to 14.1%, meaning yes, he can handle the pressure without worrying about a derailment.
Suns Fit
Assuming Phoenix does plan to build around its six core players that they’re in long-term position with contractually — Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale — Carter would fit in nicely as the top guard outside that grouping.
He can stabilize the offense for any lineups that don’t include Booker or Beal, and he could potentially fit into Allen’s slot with the starters to provide shooting and defense in situations where the shift calls for that.
Range
ESPN’s Jonathan Givony ranked Carter at No. 17 in his latest board update, The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie placed him at No. 15 and The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor compared Carter to Bruce Brown while placing him at No. 14, just inside the lottery.
I’m not quite as high as the other three, ranking Carter at No. 18 currently on my own board, but all four of us having the Providence standout inside the top 20 should indicate that he would be a home-run selection if Phoenix can nab him at No. 22, where its pick currently stands in the June 26 Day 1 of the 2024 NBA Draft.