Jack Borman of SB Nation’s Canis Hoops discusses his series prediction, the state of the Minnesota Timberwolves, and his X Factors ahead of Phoenix and Minnesota’s first-round clash.
We are now just a day away from the No. 3-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and No. 6-seeded Phoenix Suns squaring off for their first-round series. Bright Side reached out to one of our SB Nation brother sites Canis Hoops to get an alternative view on the team’s upcoming tango.
Thank you to Canis Hoops Site Manager and Editor-In-Chief Jack Borman for giving us his great insight! We asked Jack a myriad of questions about the upcoming series that should help Suns fans better understand what this first-round matchup looks like from someone who covers Phoenix’s opponent.
(The following answers have been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.)
1. Who do you think is winning the series and why?
Jack Borman: I have the Wolves winning the series in 7.
The Suns’ offense is as explosive as any in the league and will win them at least one game by simply overwhelming Minnesota’s defense with exceptional ball movement and shotmaking out of the pick-and-roll, but Phoenix’s defensive turnaround deserves a ton of credit, too. The Timberwolves have struggled to score against switching defenses, as they get bogged down, stop moving the ball, and turn the ball over too much, partly as a result of Head Coach Chris Finch’s reluctance to call plays in the half-court. Whether that last point changes or not in the playoffs, we’ll find out.
But Minnesota is much deeper than Phoenix and can play more multiple than the Suns can, especially defensively. The Timberwolves boast a historically elite defense with four truly world-class defenders in Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Anthony Edwards (when he’s locked in, which you would expect him to be in the playoffs). Beyond them, Kyle Anderson is a switchable, 6-foot-9 forward with a 7-foot-3 wingspan that can check Kevin Durant in small-ball lineups, and Naz Reid has taken a major leap defending 3s and 4s on the wing. Minnesota also has two of the top-seven defenders in terms of points per isolation allowed, according to Synergy Sports (min. 50 isos defended), in Anderson (0.703, fifth) and Gobert (0.728, seventh), who has been incredible when switched out onto the perimeter all season, regardless of whether he defends guards, wings, or bigs.
If you were to rank the 15 best players in the series, you could make a great argument that the Wolves have nine of them (Edwards, Gobert, Towns, Reid, McDaniels, Conley, Alexander-Walker, Morris, Anderson).
Phoenix is a pretty difficult team to play in a one-game setting, but their shooting numbers will stabilize over a seven-game series, and Minnesota has more cards to play when the series becomes a chess match. The Wolves can comfortably play big with two of Gobert, Towns, and Reid, go small with Towns or Reid at the 5, play drop, switch everything, blitz, and play a high wall coverage or zone.
Edwards and Towns will conjure up just barely enough offense for the Wolves to beat the Suns in 7 in what should be a fun back-and-forth matchup.
2. Who are your X factors for Minnesota and Phoenix respectively?
JB: Minnesota – Jaden McDaniels
McDaniels is hailed as a tremendous defender, which he has certainly earned through his first four seasons in the NBA; but he is also a pretty talented offensive player. However, the problem is that his confidence, and thus his offensive impact, has waxed and waned throughout his career. Given this inconsistency, teams try to hide their worst defender on McDaniels (or Conley). This will happen in this series as a result of the Suns loading up with two and sometimes three defenders on the ball and in the gaps to defend Edwards. McDaniels is going to get open looks and needs to knock them down; he shot just 34.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s this season after shooting 38.7% a season ago.
The Suns, as they did in each of the first three games, will likely start Booker on McDaniels, as the former Kentucky star has guarded the Wolves swingman for 37.1% of McDaniels’ time on the floor, per NBA.com. While the four-time All-Star has improved defensively, he is four inches shorter than McDaniels, who has a high release point. Jordan Goodwin (16.6%, remember him?), Durant (11.3%), Grayson Allen (9.1%), Eric Gordon (6.3%) and Beal (4.7%) follow Booker as McDaniels’ most frequent defenders. Outside of Durant, who only really guarded McDaniels when Towns was out, they’re all guards.
That is important, because Jaden is 6-foot-10, has a high release point, and generally has an easier time 1) getting to his spots and rising up over guards in the mid-range and from beyond the arc, and 2) finishing driving through them and finishing at the rim. McDaniels shoots 51.7% from the floor and 37.8% from deep while holding a 12.0% free throw rate against guards, but those numbers dip to 48.6%, 28.7%, and 9.3%, respectively, against forwards. McDaniels both staying out of foul trouble and maintaining his defensive level while also punishing the Suns’ guards offensively could swing this series for the Wolves, but it is a big ask given his shooting inconsistency this season. Timberwolves fans are certainly hoping that seeing exclusively guards in front of him will help bring more aggression out of him.
Phoenix – Royce O’Neale
O’Neale is the most important Sun in this series because of his ability to unlock what is arguably the most potent five-out lineup in the Western Conference. There is going to be a point in the series where Jusuf Nurkić inevitably gets in foul trouble (or really struggles to defend Gobert or Towns) and Vogel will want to go small, so opts for O’Neale instead of Drew Eubanks. How well O’Neale holds up defending whichever of the Timberwolves’ three bigs will be pivotal.
Minnesota was without Reid (and McDaniels) after the Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner broke his left wrist at Footprint Center last March, and that really showed in the playoffs. He has been an exceptional third scorer on nights Edwards or Towns struggle and has pretty consistently dominated poor defenders during his time in the Wolves’ rotation the past couple of years. If O’Neale can keep Reid in check like he has the first three times he’s played Reid (including his time with the Brooklyn Nets), the Timberwolves could be in trouble. Reid has scored just five points on 2/7 shooting and 1/4 from beyond the arc in 37.2 possessions with O’Neale as his primary defender. The same applies to Towns, although Durant would likely be his matchup in that case.
And then on the offensive end, if O’Neale can knock down 3-pointers at a high clip, play make on the short roll in the middle of the floor, and throw smart extra passes to open up for his teammate’s 3-point looks and opportunities to attack close-outs, he is going to be a problem that Minnesota will have to solve.
3. How will Phoenix’s experience advantage play a part in this series?
JB: I don’t really think they have an advantage when it comes to playoff experience. The Suns have a wildly different team than last year and the core of this team hasn’t played together for very long. You can make the same argument for the Wolves, as they didn’t have Reid (wrist) or McDaniels (hand) in the playoffs last year, and Towns (calf) and Gobert (back) both played at significantly less than 100% in the first-round series loss to the Denver Nuggets.
Edwards has been a postseason star and offensive engine from the moment he stepped foot on the court in the Play-In Tournament two years ago, and the Wolves’ veterans have plenty of playoff experience between Conley (78 games), Gobert (54), Anderson (51), and Morris (48). McDaniels and Reid are certainly inexperienced after missing last year.
But at the end of the day, playoff basketball is basketball after all, and the Wolves’ rotation has spent more time playing together on the court over the last two seasons than the Suns’ rotation has. Minnesota can’t hide behind inexperience if they lose.
4. What can you take away from the team’s regular season matchups?
JB: That the Suns can win basketball games in very different ways. The Wolves’ two highest single-game defensive ratings came in the first (146.2) and third (133.0) matchups with Phoenix, and their worst single-game offensive rating (87.0) came in the second matchup. The Suns have generated a ton of open looks against the Timberwolves, regardless of who has been in the lineup and who hasn’t, and that is a real issue Minnesota can’t just chalk up to a single-game sample. It is safe to say that Conley has no chance to guard Beal and Towns has no chance to run around with Allen, so I don’t think we’ll see much of that as a result of what we’ve seen in the first three matchups. I’d expect to see Conley chase Allen, and Towns defend Durant with Gobert sinking off of Nurkić.
I am personally not that concerned about Edwards’ scoring inefficiency against the Suns, as they won’t be able to send two or three defenders at him successfully for a whole series. If Vogel opts to play this way, it will absolutely limit Ant’s scoring for stretches, but the two-time All-Star is too good and those around him are too smart to make mistakes that justify that style of defense for extended periods. Towns having missed a month will help in this regard; during KAT’s absence, Edwards saw a ton of different looks and showed real progress as a playmaker as he got more familiar with seeing two and three defenders.
McDaniels also limited Booker quite a bit as a scorer in the second and third matchups, and that should continue on some level. Minnesota will live with Booker beating them as a playmaker (like he did in the second game with 13 assists, albeit with seven turnovers), but not with him stacking efficient scoring performances. I feel confident that length (McDaniels) is a better choice than physicality (Edwards) when it comes to guarding Booker. If McDaniels can force him to consistently take contested shots or pass out of the mid-range, the Wolves will live with the results that come with a good process.
5. How has KAT returning from injury and ownership drama impacted the Wolves with the postseason nearing?
JB: While players certainly gravitate more toward Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore than Glen Taylor for pretty obvious reasons, that power struggle has had zero impact on the players and coaches. The Timberwolves destroyed the Nuggets in Denver in the first game after that fight went as public as it did, so it clearly was not an issue for them.
As for KAT returning, there were some clear offensive kinks to work out. The Timberwolves became a far more PnR-centric offense in Towns’ absence, often spamming spread PnR with Ant/Gobert, Conley/Gobert, and Ant/Reid to get the ball moving around the perimeter – very similar to how the Suns play when their offense is sharing it rather than taking the contested middies that plagued their fourth quarter offense before turning it around in April. Reid shot seven 3-pointers a game when Towns (5.3 a game) was out, so KAT will need to operate out of the corner more often and increase his 3-point shot frequency when he plays with the starting five. KAT can then get into more of his post-up and driving game when he’s empowered as the lead scorer in mostly bench lineups to start the second and fourth quarters.
Towns is most problematic when he’s driving into crowds (situations in which he almost always turns it over) or posting up 17 feet away from the basket. We saw both things happen in the regular season finale. But if Towns can trade a drive or two for a couple more 3-pointers and can post exclusively on the low block (where he is an elite post-up player, especially on the left block), as he did against the Atlanta Hawks in his first game back, he will have much more of an All-Star-caliber impact.
Wolves fans are certainly hoping the week of practice will help him get more comfortable spacing to the corner and help him regain some chemistry playing with the starters again because Minnesota will struggle to win if they don’t get an efficient, impactful version of Karl-Anthony Towns.
6. Who is the best player in this series and why?
JB: Kevin Durant. We all know that he averages the second-most points in NBA playoff history (29.4). He’s arguably the greatest scorer to ever pick up a basketball and is somehow only getting more efficient as he ages. But he doesn’t get anywhere near enough credit for how incredible of a defender he has evolved into throughout his career, especially since he left the Golden State Warriors. If I had a vote, I would’ve voted Durant Second Team All-Defense for the work he did defending the rim as a free safety in small-ball lineups, switching onto the perimeter and defending in isolation, and generally causing mayhem defensively with his never-ending wingspan.
Booker is second at this point, but Edwards is capable of outplaying him. Book’s floor is significantly higher than Ant’s, but the young gun has a higher ceiling given his ability to completely take over a game on both ends, whereas Booker can only do that offensively. Obviously, Booker is more consistently great offensively than Edwards, so he gets the nod. Keep in mind that Ant also likely thinks he should start over Book at the 2 for Team USA in Paris this summer, which could create an interesting little subplot in this series.