Who needs to be the ancillary force that sways the series?
The postseason begins in just two short days. The Phoenix Suns, after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in game 82 of the season, were rewarded with a week’s worth of rest prior to the start of their playoff run. It is a familiar foe that they will face, as Phoenix played Minnesota twice in the final nine days of the regular season. The result? The Suns went to 2-0 and completed a regular season series sweep of the Timberwolves.
In that week off, both teams were certainly strategizing and analyzing their method of attack against a familiar opponent. Hours were certainly logged by coaches watching game tape, reviewing ideal matchups, and determining how their offense and defense can be optimally deployed in the first round.
Every series needs an X-factor. How you define that is up to you, as the term is a subjective opinion about who can sway the series.
How many times have we seen a player like Andre Iguodala determine a championship for a team? It is through that lens that I like to view an X-factor. Your stars are your stars. You generally cannot win a series if they are not performing at their best. They are the foundation of your team, and if they are off, cracks are exposed and that foundation crumbles.
It is the ancillary players who will determine the outcome of this series. We experienced it over the past two postseasons when the secondary players lost their confidence and their ability to score. Remember Torrey Craig shooting 14.3% from three last season against the Nuggets? How about Mikal Bridges’ disappearing act against the Mavericks the season before?
For this series, there are two factors that I have my eye on. Two individuals need to show up in an effort for Phoenix to upset the third-seeded Timberwolves. Not surprisingly, they are the two starters who are not part of the Big Three.
Jusuf Nurkic
Big Nurk Daddy had a stellar season for Phoenix. He certainly exceeded my expectations, both in the total games played and in the attitude in which he played them. Much of the fodder when he arrived via trade this past September was that he was an emotional player who hung his head when results didn’t go his way. Couple that with his injury history and lack of availability, and many question whether or not obtaining him was the right move for the Suns.
I believe that he proved the naysayers wrong, although they’ll never admit it. He led the Suns in games played this season (76), scoring 10.9 points and grabbing 11.0 rebounds. He also had a career-high in assists with 4.0, and added 1.1 blocks. He was a solid addition, especially at $16.9 million a year.
Is vitally important in this series that Nurkic is productive. The Timberwolves are a big team. Rudy Colbert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid make up a trio of big bodies that are effective in their roles. The Suns, conversely, are long but not big. They are also not deep at the center position, either.
Drew Eubanks is more hot and cold than the weather report in Colorado. Thaddeus Young, who can bring some energy, is nearly 36 years old and hasn’t had much of a runway with Phoenix to showcase how effective he can be, even at 6’8”.
We witnessed it this past Sunday against Minnesota, as their game plan in the third quarter was to pound the interior with Rudy Gobert. The result? Nurkic got into foul trouble, the rebounds dried up when he went to the bench, and Minnesota mounted a run. Thankfully, the Suns were able to sustain their attempted comeback, but be sure that Minnesota head coach Chris Finch saw that tape and will sometimes deploy that strategy throughout this series.
Nurkic needs to play smart and not pick up the that he has to. One thing working against him is the fact that he committed the most fouls in the NBA this season at 254.
There is one strategy, Frank Vogel can deploy if Nurkic gets into foul trouble, and that is the small-ball tactic. Utilizing Kevin Durant as your center will surely open up offensive opportunities for Phoenix. Durant can pull Rudy out of the paint and into the perimeter, which will allow the rest of the team a free reign at the cylinder. The challenge? Defending Gobert. Minnesota will surely attempt to pound inside, take advantage of Durant’s slender build, and potentially get him in trouble as well.
Oh, a chess match indeed.
Grayson Allen
The secondary X-factor in the series is Grayson Allen. The Suns just received one of the greatest three-point shooting seasons in franchise history. Not too bad for a player who everybody thought was dirty and unreliable.
This is the 2nd time in NBA history a member of the Suns led the league in 3PT%.
The only other to do it? Craig Hodges in 1987-88. Hodges was traded to PHX mid-season and played 23 games in ’88 with PHX, shooting 49.1% overall on 175 attempts.
Allen attempted 445. https://t.co/6dQOhiCBsM
— John Voita (@DarthVoita) April 18, 2024
Grayson needs to continue his confident and effective shooting from beyond the arc in this series. As we witnessed throughout the season, he will have wide-open looks from deep. It is a result of having such elite top-end talent on the floor with him. Their gravity pulls defenders away from Allan, and he is left open to shoot. His quick trigger and accuracy have been deadly for Phoenix this season.
He needs to shoot at least five three-pointers game. Why? Because in 45 games in which he did, the Suns went 28-17. I like those odds. I like having him shoot.
The challenge with Allen is the same one we’ve had with players like Torrey Craig, Cameron Payne, and Josh Okogie. Players who were effective during the regular season morphed into black holes when the playoffs began. Their team needed them to provide scoring, and all they provided were empty possessions.
GA is a career 40.6% three-point shooter in the postseason, so we hope that trend continues into this run with the Suns.
The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA, despite what you may think after seeing them play the Suns this season. Is Phoenix a tough matchup for them? After losing three games to the Suns this season, I’m sure anybody would say, “yes”. But that does not take away their ability to be a big, long, passing-lane-clogging team. And if we know anything about the Suns this season, they like to throw the ball away in those passing lanes, don’t they?
The X-factors of Nurk and GA could sway a game or two in the series. And that is what Phoenix needs. As long as Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal all show up, playing the way that we know they can, the Suns have a chance.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below who your factors are.