Breaking down the chances the Suns keep or move Kevin Durant this summer.
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The question everyone in the Valley is asking: What now?
We’ve already covered the various ways the Phoenix Suns might escape Bradley Beal’s contract nightmare in previous posts on Bright Side. For the purposes of this piece, we’re assuming Phoenix finds a way — via trade (please God), stretch provision (highly likely), or another creative exit (Bitcoin deposited in an offshore account by Mat Ishbia) — to move on from Beal.
The topic now is to deal with a different domino that needs to fall to move on from this quagmire. He is the’s the off-season’s slimmest and grumpiest, I just wanna hoop domino in Kevin Durant.
At 36 years old, Durant is still a top-20 player in the NBA. But he’s also on the last leg of his deal, and the Suns are staring down a future with limited draft capital, no young core, and very little financial flexibility.
So, what are the odds the Suns move KD this off-season? What could they get back? And how likely are each of these paths? Well, FanDuel doesn’t have the odds. So I made up my own!
1. Keep Kevin Durant for One More Season
Estimated Chance: 25%
The most pragmatic option might be to stand pat. With Durant under contract and still elite, the Suns could give it one more try under a moderately retooled roster and a new coaching staff. His salary will come off the books at the end of the year, clearing cap space, and giving Phoenix some breathing room in the 2026 off-season to sign players they actually want rather than taking back 90% in salaries they kind of want in a Durant trade.
Upside:
- Maintains competitive relevance this year with the hope a new coach and a new system bring
- Still maintains some Durant trade value if a great offer comes at the deadline from a team desperate for that one last final piece
- Avoids selling low in a limited market if the offers just aren’t there right now
Downside:
- Aging star, declining team, he may be worth even less at the trade deadline
- No draft picks to soften a future fall
- Houston owns or controls many of Phoenix’s future picks, making a collapse even more damaging
- If KD doesn’t get an extension, how does he respond?
Projected Roster:
- PG: Free agent veteran minimum
- SG: Devin Booker
- SF: Kevin Durant
- PF: Ryan Dunn/Royce O’Neale
- C: Nick Richards/Bol Bol
- Bench: Built on the margins
2. Trade Kevin Durant for the ‘Valley’ Suns, Part 2: Revenge of the ‘Valley’ Suns
Estimated Chance: 15%
This is from the heart of a fan who thought we should have kept the band together. We are not talking about the G-League Valley Suns, but the team that donned the Valley jerseys en route to the 2021 NBA Finals and won 64 games a year later. Look at how many times the Boston Celtics failed with their young core until they developed into champions. My fanboy heart is already nostalgic for the ‘Valley’ Suns.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
If the Knicks view Durant as the missing piece for a championship run, this is the most logical way to start reshaping the future with a previously established identity and chemistry, which the Suns have lacked since trading for Durant. The Valley Suns 2.0 could compete now, they would play hard, the defense would be stellar, and the city would fall in love again. Would they win it all? No, but damn do I miss that feeling of loving my team and the players who wear the jersey.
Trade Partner: New York Knicks
- Durant → Knicks
- Return: Mikal Bridges, filler, and a top-8 protected first from the Wizards in 2026
A Durant-for-Mikal trade would be poetic and strategic. Bridges is beloved in Phoenix, still great at everything he has always done, and fits in any timeline. New York loves a superstar, and the Suns get a fresh restart with Booker and Mikal, as the core, and a chance to develop depth again in the future. Imagine the defensive possibilities of Mikal and Dunn playing side by side! The Jailer and The Warden. Book ’em, Devin.
Hear me out…Chris Paul is a free agent. He still comments on Book’s social media posts with fire emojis, which are the modern version of “I still love you, bro.” He played in all 82 games last year for the Spurs and is still an on-court coach. He was also the fire behind the original Valley Suns. He would come at a very low salary, and it’s perfect for CP3 to return to a city that loved him.
Bonus points behind the fact that they’ve already leaked that the Valley jerseys are coming back next year. Let’s get the band back together!
Pros:
- Reunites a competitive, beloved core
- Restores team chemistry
- Re-energizes the fanbase with energy, effort, and defense returning to the Valley
Projected Roster (Post-Knicks Deal):
- PG: Chris Paul
- SG: Devin Booker
- SF: Mikal Bridges
- PF: Ryan Dunn/Royce O’Neale
- C: Nick Richards/Bol Bol
- Bench: Suns #29 pick used on a PG
3. Full Rebuild: Trade Durant and Booker
Estimated Chance: 3-5%, depending on the team
A very unlikely scenario, but worth discussing. I love Book, the city loves Book, but if Phoenix decides the current model is to broken to fix, which they may quickly realize. They could go nuclear: trade both KD and Book, and regain picks, and build from the ground up. This kind of reset would require ownership buy-in and some serious front-office precision decisions that may require a 3rd or even a 4th team, but here we go.
Potential Trade Partner: Houston Rockets (5% chance)
- Durant & Booker → Houston
- Return: Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Şengün, and all of Phoenix’s own picks back, plus extras
Alternate Partner: San Antonio Spurs (5% chance)
- Durant & Booker → Spurs
- Return: #2 and #14 picks in 2024, 2025 pick swap rights, Devin Vassell, and future picks
Spiciest Possibility: Trade for #1 Overall Pick in 2025 Draft (3% chance)
- Durant & Booker → Dallas
- Return: 2025 #1 pick (to take Cooper Flagg) plus more picks and whatever random players they have to cobble together to make it work with additional teams involved
- This would be a long-term bet on drafting a generational star
Pros:
- Regains control of the future
- Clears cap space and builds through the draft
- Long runway for development
Projected 2025 Rookies Drafted with each trade:
- San Antonio: Dylan Harper (PG) at 2, Rasheer Fleming (PF) at 14, Ryan Kalkbrenner (C) at 29
- Houston Rockets: Kasparas Jakuciounis (PG) at 10, best available at 29
- Dallas: Cooper Flagg at 1, best available at 29
- Bench: Youth movement + flexibility
4. Trade Durant at the 2025 Deadline
Estimated Chance: 10%
This is a wait-and-see approach. Let Durant start the year, showcase his value, and pivot if the team under performs. The risk here is obvious. Durant’s value could dip due to injury or regression, but the potential return could increase if contenders get desperate.
Pros:
- Potentially more suitors in-season that are willing to give up more draft picks if they feel they are really close heading into the trade deadline
- Could recoup strong value from desperate playoff teams
Final Thoughts
The Suns can’t afford to misstep. With a depleted pick cupboard and a narrowing window, the decision on Durant will define the franchise’s next five years. Running it back offers short-term hope. Trading KD for assets offers a strategic pivot. Going full rebuild is bold, unlikely, but not impossible.
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