The case for the Suns to blow it up grows louder by the ping-pong ball.
Many are wondering what lies ahead for the Phoenix Suns this offseason. With a new general manager, Brian Gregory, stepping into the role, we’re entering unfamiliar waters. There’s no track record to consult, no pattern of preferences to analyze. We don’t know what kind of players he values, how aggressive he’ll be on the trade market, or whether he leans more toward big swings or steady contact. Is he here to swing for the fences, or is he a “get ‘em on, get ‘em over, get ‘em in” kind of guy?
One of the central debates this summer revolves around the Suns’ ballooning payroll, the largest in NBA history. Some argue it’s time to detonate the current core. Trade Devin Booker. Trade Kevin Durant. Embrace the rebuild. Collect draft picks, reset the culture, and try to change the fate of a franchise that’s lost its way.
If you’re someone who supports that approach, then what happened on Monday afternoon only strengthens your case. Because if you’re going to alter the course of a franchise, it starts with star talent. And to get star talent, you need high-end draft capital. Not necessarily by tanking, but by getting lucky when it matters most.
Since the NBA reshaped its draft lottery odds in 2019, the correlation between the worst records and top picks has fractured. The math says the worst teams should benefit. Reality tells a different story.
That’s why the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards — who’ve combined to go 328–609 since 2019 — remain trapped in a purgatory of mediocrity. Despite their ineptitude, neither has landed a No. 1 pick in that span.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks, with a 1.8% chance, leapfrogged everyone to land the top overall selection. They should’ve been picking 11th.
We know this all too well, don’t we?
In 2018–19, the Suns finished with the second-worst record in the NBA at 19–63, in Deandre Ayton’s rookie season. It was supposed to be the gateway to a franchise-altering talent. Zion Williamson or Ja Morant. Picks No. 1 and 2. Phoenix had a 27.4% chance to land in that top two. The worst they could have done, mathematically, was sixth.
So, naturally, they landed sixth.
That pick was eventually traded down, bringing back Cameron Johnson and Dario Saric. Solid contributors, sure, but far from the generational stars who followed in the top two. A different bounce of the ping-pong balls, and the Suns’ entire trajectory might have changed. Another cruel “what if.” Another sliding door.
And that’s precisely why this matters now.
If you’re advocating for a full rebuild — if you believe the Suns should tear it down and stockpile picks — the lottery odds should be your ally. The system is designed to disincentivize outright tanking. You can bottom out, yes, but you can also end up in the right spot without burning your entire franchise to the ground.
It’s unfortunate for teams like Charlotte and Washington. Despite years in the basement, the lottery hasn’t rewarded them. Since 2019, they’ve accumulated losses like draft capital, and yet, no No. 1 pick to show for it.
Take a look at who’s actually landed the first overall pick since the new lottery odds went into effect. Compare those teams to their records from the season before. If this were the NFL, it would be cut-and-dry. The worst record picks first. But in the NBA? That’s not how this works.
So if that’s your modus operandi — if that’s how you think the Suns should proceed — there is a case to be made. To change your fate, you don’t have to bottom out. You just need a ticket to the show. But the Suns, burdened with the league’s highest payroll and stripped of their picks, didn’t even have that.
The goal, then, is to be competitive. Competitive enough. Because the NBA isn’t rewarding the teams that flatline. Not the ones who pack it in, drag through a season, and pray for ping-pong salvation. Those teams haven’t reaped the spoils. The odds don’t favor them, not anymore.
And maybe, in that sense, the whole thing is rigged. Not in the conspiratorial way, but in the subtle, structural way. A machine that feeds on effort, optics, and just enough chaos to keep hope alive…but rarely where it’s most deserved.
Tanking must be really stressful on a organization.
— Kevin Durant (@KDTrey5) May 13, 2025
The fundamental challenge with this approach lies in the Suns’ lack of control over their own draft capital. Instead, they’re forced to pin their hopes on other teams underperforming to improve their positioning in the draft. But that becomes increasingly difficult when you’ve just handed those teams a superstar like Devin Booker or Kevin Durant. In that light, the wisest course is a delayed rebuild, one initiated only when the Suns regain control of their own picks.
Until then, the best strategy is to ride this current wave for as long as it will carry you.
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