Why the Bradley Beal buyout still hasn’t happened

The Suns are ready to move, but perhaps Bradley Beal isn’t.

We find ourselves in a familiar holding pattern, one that echoes the tense days before Kevin Durant was traded to the Houston Rockets.

Once again, anticipation hangs heavy in the air. The Phoenix Suns have yet to pull the trigger on what many around the league believe is inevitable: the buyout of Bradley Beal. It’s no secret. Everyone sees it coming. The only question now is when.

The assumption, of course, is that the Suns will stretch the buyout amount across the next five seasons, a financial maneuver aimed at softening the blow on the cap sheet, especially during these next two crucial years. Dead cap space is never ideal, sure, but being trapped in the second apron while trying to retool and rebuild around Devin Booker is far more restrictive, both strategically and financially.

So then, the obvious question. If everyone sees it coming, if all signs point toward a buyout, why hasn’t it happened yet? What’s the holdup? Why not rip off the Band-Aid and move forward?

My assumption is that it comes down once again to the man who holds the carts. Bradley Beal.

Bradley Beal is owed $110.8 million over the next two seasons, and he has no interest in giving any of that back. From his standpoint, why would he? But from the Suns’ side, it’s clear they’re trying to negotiate a lesser buyout figure, hoping to find some middle ground before pulling the trigger.

Yes, Phoenix could simply waive him and eat the full $110.8 million while getting nothing in return. But that’s where the CBA steps in. You can only stretch a player’s remaining salary if the resulting dead cap doesn’t exceed 15% of the team’s total salary cap. In this case, stretching the full amount wouldn’t be allowed under those terms.

So technically, the Suns could just absorb the full hit over the next two years. But in a world of bad options, that’s arguably the worst one.

So what’s really happening here?

The Suns are likely trying to get Bradley Beal to accept a buyout worth around $96.8 million, roughly $14 million less than what he’s owed. That figure isn’t random. It’s strategic. If Phoenix can land on that number, they’d be able to stretch the remaining amount over five years and still stay within the league’s 15% dead cap limit, even with Nassir Little and E.J. Liddell already on the books from previous stretch-and-waives.

In short, Beal would have to eat $14 million for the Suns to make this work. And that’s the holdup.

Because Beal isn’t going to leave money on the table without a clear next step. He wants a suitor, a team ready to sign him once the ink dries. But the problem across the league right now? That market just isn’t there. There aren’t a lot of suitors lining up with the role, minutes, and money Beal would want. And the money is the key.

Yes, in theory, a team could pay Bradley Beal the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to make up the difference he’d lose in a buyout. That would make the math work for him and allow the Suns to stretch the remaining amount under the cap constraints.

The problem? The teams he actually wants to play for don’t have that kind of room.

The Milwaukee Bucks? They only have $3.6 million left of their mid-level.

The Los Angeles Clippers? Just $5.4 million remaining.

The Miami Heat? $5.7 million, give or take.

At this moment in time, according to Salary Swish, 17 teams are hard-capped, either at the first apron or the second. Only two teams in the entire league, the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets, currently have any real cap space remaining. And once you’re over the cap, the rules are clear: you can’t just hand a player $20 million. Your tools are limited. Exceptions shrink. Flexibility disappears.

And that’s the stalemate. Beal’s not budging without a guaranteed landing spot, and the contenders he’s eyeing don’t have the means to offer what he’s looking for. Not financially, at least. So, unless he widens his net or lowers his ask, this thing stays stuck in neutral.

So yes, Bradley Beal technically holds the cards, but what he’s discovering is that they aren’t a pair of aces. It’s more like a jack and a joker. He’s staring down the reality that, no matter how badly he wants a clean break with a contender, he’s not going to make the kind of money he once thought was guaranteed over the next two years.

He might have to sacrifice $7 million just to suit up in Los Angeles. And honestly? That’s the most likely outcome. My guess? He becomes a Clipper. They’ll throw him $5.4 million and in return, Beal gets a fresh start on a playoff team in a major market.

And the Suns? They finally get some breathing room. The flexibility to maneuver. Access to their mid-level exception. The ability to aggregate will return to the fold. Suddenly, that cap sheet we’ve stared at in disgust feels a little lighter. A little more manageable. A little more hopeful. And the moves will follow.

Because, for once, we’d not be held hostage by a player obsessed with playing cards.

Go fish, Brad.

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