So, what has pick 16 yielded the last decade and what did they do in the NFL?
Let’s take a look at the last decade of 16th overall picks in the NFL Draft.
2020 – A.J. Terrell, CB – Atlanta Falcons: 14 games played
2019 – Brian Burns, Edge – Carolina Panthers: 31 games, 16.5 sacks
2018 – Tremaine Edmunds, LB – Buffalo Bills: 46 games, 223 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 2x Pro Bowl
2017 – Marlon Humphrey, CB – Baltimore Ravens: 61 games, 8 INTs, 2x Pro Bowl, All Pro
2016 – Taylor Decker, OT – Detroit Lions: 71 games, Signed 4-year $60 million contract extension
2015 – Kevin Johnson, CB – Houston Texans: 64 games only 25 starts, three teams in six seasons
2014 – Zack Martin, OG – Dallas Cowboys: 104 games, 6x Pro Bowl, 4x All Pro
2013 – E.J. Manuel, QB – Buffalo Bills: Bust
2012 – Quinton Coples, Edge – New York Jets: 62 games, 32 starts, 16.5 sacks
2011 – Ryan Kerrigan, Edge – Washington Football Team: 95.5 sacks, 4x Pro Bowl
When you look at the last decade, four players have been Pro Bowlers with the 16th pick. Burns and Terrell look promising, and Decker while not at the Pro Bowl level is probably close to D.J. Humphries level of dependability at the left tackle spot.
So, you have four studs or more, one long-term starter, two promising young players. That leaves three bad picks.
Johnson is still in the league, so while not a good pick, not a complete bust.
Coples had two years where he showed something, but has been out of the league since 2015. I would say that is a bust.
Then there is Manuel, who is a bust as well.
The 16th pick has been fruitful. You have two absolute elite players in Humphrey and Martin. You have high level Pro Bowlers in Edmunds and Kerrigan. I think we all agree it is too early on Terrell and Burns went from 7.5 to 9 sacks in year two, so he is trending in the right direction.
What do you think?