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Do teams need a true sub 4.40 burner to open up their passing games?

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Carolina Panthers v Atlanta Falcons
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images

Do the Cardinals absolutely need a sub 4.4 burner on offense in order to win in 2025?

Curiously, here were the top 3 ranked QBs in 2024 at 20+ yard passing efficiency under little to no pressure:

* Michael Penix Jr., ATL — Catchable Ball: 77%, Off-Target: 23% Rank: #1

* Anthony Richardson, IND — Catchable Ball: 76%, Off-Target: 24% Rank: #2

* Geno Smith, SEA — Catchable Ball: 73%, Off-Target: 27% Rank: #3

Top 3 receivers on ATL, IND and SEA:

ATL: Drake London (4.56), Darnell Mooney (4.38), Ray-Ray McCloud (4.53) = 2,969 yds, 15 TDs

IND: Alec Pierce (4.33), Michael Pittman Jr. (4.52), Josh Downs (4.48) = 2,435 yds, 15 TDs

SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.48), D.K. Metcalf (4.33), Tyler Lockett (4.40) = 2,722 yds, 13 TDs

Geno Smith’s receivers dropped 121 passes in 2024.

Bryce Young, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes 20+ yard throws with little to no pressure in 2024:

  • Young: Catchable Ball: 60%, Off-Target: 40% Rank: #10
  • Murray: Catchable Ball: 51%, Off-Target: 49% Rank: #24
  • Mahomes: catchable Ball: 50%; Off-Target: 47% Rank: #25

Surprising to see Bryce Young passing for higher 20+ yard percentages with clean pockets than Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes, isn’t it?

Young was impressively efficient versus the Cardinals during the Panthers’ 36-30 OT win:

  • Bryce Young: QBR: 81.9; RTG: 107.5
  • Kyler Murray: QBR: 57.7; RTG: 77.9

Top 3 WRs on CAR, ARI, KC:

CAR: Adam Thielen (4.45), Xavier Leggett (4.39), Jalen Coker (4.57) = 1,690 yds, 11 TDs

ARI: Trey McBride (4.54), Marvin Harrison Jr. (n/a), Michael Wilson (4.58) = 2,579 yds, 14 TDs

KC: Travis Kelce (4.61), Xavier Worthy (4,21), Noah Gray (4.62) = 1,898 yds, 14 TDs

Note: both CAR and KC have sub 4.4 burners and yet the Cardinals put up significantly more passing yards with their top 3 receivers than the Chiefs and Panthers.

Do teams need a true sub 4.40 burner to open up their passing games?

2024 Top 10 Leaders in 20+ and 40+ “Explosive” Passing Completions:

  1. SF —- 77 —- Kittle (4.52), Jennings (4.72), Sanders (4.48)
  2. MIN —- 74 —- Jefferson (4.43), Addison (4.49), Hockenson (4.70)
  3. DET —- 73 —- St. Brown (4.61), Williams (4.48*), LaPorta (4.59) * pre-draft following injury
  4. GB —- 73 —- Reed (4.45), Kraft (4.69), Watson (4.36)
  5. BAL —- 70 —- Flowers (4.42), Bateman (4.39), Andrews (4.67)
  6. BUF —- 67 —- Shakir (4.43), Coleman (4.61), Kincaid (4.71)
  7. TB —- 63 —- Evans (4.53), Otten (4.63), Godwin (4.42)
  8. PIT —- 63 —- Pickens (4.47), Freiermuth (4.72), Austin (4.32)
  9. ATL —- 62 —- London (4.56), Mooney (4.38), McCloud (4.53)
  10. JAX — 62 —- Thomas (4.33), Strange (4.70), Washington (4.49)

Speed at WR is certainly an asset. Interestingly, of the top 10 most explosive passing teams in 2024, the only sub 4.0 WR to lead his team in receiving was Jaguars’ rookie Brian Thomas. Nine of the 10 top passing offenses have a TE as one of their top 3 receivers. Only 2 sub 4.0 WRs were 2nd in receiving, while the other 2 were third. Of 30 top receivers, only 5 are sub 4.0 burners.

One may argue that a 4.3 burner can indeed open up his offense for all the other receivers. And that is certainly a valid point. But, in today’s NFL with defenses employing a hefty mixture of Cover 2 and Cover 3 schemes, the primary intent is to try to thwart “explosive” passing plays.

Here is an excellent 2-minute explanation by Solomon Wilcots of why Cover 2 has been trending big-time in today’s NFL. (click on link)

NFL 101: The Cover-2 Defense – YouTube

Cause and Effect of Cover 2:

Because Cover 2 defenses are so prevalent, offenses are countering by trying to attack the intermediate areas of the field behind the linebacker and in front of the safeties. This is why the majority of top yardage receivers in the game today are WRs and TEs who are often “flexed’ into the slot.

2024 NFL Top 10 Receiving Leaders:

  1. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
  2. WR Amon-Ra St, Brown, DET
  3. TE Brock Bowers, LV
  4. TE Trey McBride, ARI
  5. WR Malik Nabers, NYG
  6. WR Justin Jefferson, MIN
  7. WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL
  8. WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ
  9. WR Drake London, ATL
  10. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA

Note: All of these receivers were used heavily in the slot, including Ja’Marr Chase, who amassed over 400 yards from the slot in 2024.

Go Route Leaders:

Note: None of these WRs were on one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL.

ROTB Poll:

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