When considering whether Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is worth drafting in fantasy football for the upcoming 2023-24 season, his current ESPN average draft position (ADP) raises intriguing questions.
Ranked 26th among quarterbacks with an average overall pick of 167.8, he finds himself in a cluster of up-and-coming QBs. This article delves into the factors to weigh when deciding whether to target Murray over players like Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Mac Jones. It also explores reasons to avoid and target him and suggests potential quarterback pairings to optimize your fantasy roster.
Is Kyler Murray Worth the Risk in Fantasy Football?
Reasons to Avoid
Murky Return Date
Murray tore his ACL in Week 14 last year, making his return date murky going into this season. He could miss several games, but the target return is still unknown. Another factor that could contribute to Murray’s return date is the Cardinals projected poor record this season. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, they aren’t favored in a single game this season.
Odds for each game week 1-18 (@DKSportsbook).#Cardinals are not favored once.#Chiefs are favored in every game. pic.twitter.com/MCRyawd8zy
— uSTADIUM App (@uSTADIUM) August 15, 2023
Suppose Arizona is clearly out of the playoff hunt by mid-season (which many analysts and Vegas agree is the most likely outcome) when Kyler Murray is set to return. Why wouldn’t the Cardinals take it even slower with Murray’s return and bring him back even later this season – perhaps not at all – to ensure they have a coveted top draft pick in next year’s 2024 NFL Draft?
There’s a non-zero chance that Murray isn’t on the field this season.
He Takes up Another Roster Spot
It’s essential to know your league settings as a factor to consider when deciding whether to select Murray. If you have one or two IR spots, it could make more sense to take a late-round pick on Murray, hoping his return is sooner rather than later. However, if there’s no IR, it could not be worth the opportunity cost to roster Murray the entire season.
The quarterback position is one of the deepest in fantasy in terms of being able to find serviceable starters on the waiver wire. If you have a reliable starting quarterback, you’re better off bolstering your depth at other positions with high-upside flyers.
Reasons to Target
Rushing Upside
Murray’s dynamic dual-threat ability is a significant reason he’s a coveted quarterback option in fantasy football. Throughout his first four seasons, Murray has showcased remarkable consistency regarding rushing yards and touchdowns. Averaging 551 rushing yards per season, he provides a reliable baseline of points from his rushing alone.
Additionally, his rushing and above-average passing skills give Murray a substantial upside. He can potentially deliver those big “boom” games that can single-handedly swing matchups in their favor. Last season, Murray had over 24 fantasy points in three out of ten weeks.
Fantasy Football Is a Weekly Game
Last season, on a points-per-game basis, Murray finished sixth amongst quarterbacks, averaging 19.99 points in ten full games. It’s fair to expect a little bit lower numbers when Murray does return due to a little less rushing as he comes back from injury, as well as the departure of DeAndre Hopkins.
However, even with some regression, Murray could finish as a top-ten quarterback on a points-per-game basis when he’s back as the Cardinals starter. Most importantly, Murray might be at his peak in the fantasy playoffs.
Quarterbacks to Pair With Murray
If you already have a reliable QB1 that you spent relatively high draft capital on, then spending another pick on a quarterback doesn’t make sense. It’s best to pair Murray with a quarterback in the low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 range.
Given Murray’s volatile and unpredictable season as a relatively high-risk upside pick, it makes sense to add a dependable veteran quarterback that you more or less already know what you are getting in terms of their floor. Players in this range that fit the criteria include Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Geno Smith, and Aaron Rodgers.
Main Photo: Rob Schumacher – USA Today Sports
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