Today’s fantasy outlook takes us to Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray entered the NFL possessing the all-important fantasy quarterback cheat code: rushing prowess. However, that began to disappear somewhat as the 2024 season progressed. Since 2020, Murray’s rush attempts per game have declined. During that season, he was at 8.3 attempts per game, and that number has declined each year since. In 2024, Murray’s rush attempts dropped to just 4.6 a game. Drafting a mobile quarterback has proven ideal in fantasy football roster construction. So, as we begin to formulate our 2025 draft plans, do we now consider Murray as less of a running threat?
Kyler Murray Fantasy Outlook: Wait on Quarterback Target
Fantasy Football Profile: Kyler Murray
2024 in Review
Last season, Kyler Murray finished as the overall QB10, scoring 297.2 total fantasy points. He passed for a career high 3851 passing yards, with 21 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. On the ground, Murray rushed for 572 yards and another five scores. He 68.8% completion percentage and 7.1 yards per attempt were both the second highest in his career. His rushing yardage total was a career best. Murray’s 18.1 fantasy points per game were ranked 12th among qualified fantasy quarterbacks.
Next, the Arizona Cardinals’ playcalling began to change in the latter part of the 2024 season. In the first ten weeks, their overall pass rate and neutral pass rate hovered around the 50% mark. After week 10, the Cardinals jumped to above the 60% mark in both categories. In addition, their pass rate over expected went from a -5.1% in the weeks 1-10, to +6.7% after week 10. We mention this because part of what makes Murray’s fantasy viable is his rushing ability. We need the existence of the rushing upside element for him to finish as a QB1 in 2025.
2025 Projection
Kyler Murray is projected to score 319 fantasy points on 3.856 yards passing for 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. On the ground, he forecasted to rush for over 500 yards and an additional five scores. Murray’s issue, in our opinion, is more the volatility in his weekly fantasy output. Last season, he had five top-five finishes, averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game over that span. However, he had nine games where he finished as a QB2 in weekly scoring. In addition, his fantasy points per game scoring average has dropped every year since his career best 23.7 2020 season.
Kyler Murray Fantasy Football ADP
In February, Murray was going off best ball draft boards as the QB10 with an ADP of 82.4. His best ball ADP now sits at 89, but he has moved up the rankings a notch to QB9. A couple of things here, first, at his current price tag, Murray will be worth the pick. He has a solid run game, a legit WR1 in Marvin Harrison Jr., and the overall TE2, Trey McBride. Second, despite the drop in rushing attempts per game, Murray, among quarterbacks, ranked top four in rushing yards and top seven in rushing touchdowns. 2025 is a great opportunity to buy the dip on the Murray and Arizona Cardinals offense!
Lastly, if McBride ranks as the overall TE2 and Harrison Jr. goes as a top 16 wide receiver, then you have to be in on Murray. Drafting a winning fantasy team is as much about nailing the later rounds as it is about not missing on your early round picks. Murray has a path to outperforming his ADP and being a terrific value at quarterback.
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