Folow the blue dots on the Cardinals’ path to pick #16
Yesterday, I presented a “follow the T30 Visit” path to what the Cardinals’ 1st round plan is apt to look like. The cheat sheet with the ROTB Poll results (258 members voting) is:
- Choice #1 at #16: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan (Excitement meter at ROTB: 8/10)
- Choice #2 at #16: Shemar Stewart, ED, Texas A&M (Excitement meter at ROTB: 6/10)
- Choice #3 (with a trade down): Josh Simmons, T, Ohio St (50% in favor at ROTB). or Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio St. (45% in favor at ROTB)
- Trade down if top targets are off the board: 78% ROTB approval
- Overall outline of the plan: 67%. ROTB approval
My votes:
- 7/8 excitement for Will Johnson
- 5/6 excitement for Shemar Stewart
- Not in favor of a trade down.
- But if Monti does trade down, I would favor G Donovan Jackson.
I want the Cardinals to stick and pick at #16.
I believe there will be several players available at #16 who are highly worthy of the selection.
After spending their first 1st round picks on offense in 2023 and 2024 and seeing as the Cardinals already have more star power on offense, I feel adamant about Monti taking a defensive stud at #16.
Today I am going to follow the Blue Dot Special path to the pick.
Two of PFF’s Big Board player analytics that I appreciate very much when it comes to defensive linemen are their Run-Stop Win Rate % and their Pass Rush Win Rate %. With each rating they assign a colored dot:
- Blue Dot: Excellent
- Gray Dot: Above Average
- Orange: Below Average
- Red: Deficient
Therefore, today I went searching for players who earned Blue Dots in both run stopping rates and pass rushing rates.
Here are the Blue Dot Specials (with PFF Big Board overall rankings):
Blue Dot Interior Defenders:
- 4 —- Mason Graham, Michigan
- 17 —- Kenneth Grant, Michigan
- 22 —- Derrick Harman, Oregon
- 23 —- Darius Alexander, Toldeo
- 25 —- Walter Nolen, Mississippi
- 36 —- T. J. Sanders, South Carolina
- 109 —- C.J. West, Indiana
Blue Dot Edge Defenders:
- 2 —- Abdul Carter, Penn St.
- 12 —- James Pearce, Tennessee
- 13 —- Mike Green, Marshall
- 16 —- Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College
- 32 —- Nic Scourton, Texas A&M
- 45 —- Princely Umanmielen, Mississippi
Notable players who missed the cut:
- 24 —- Mykel Williams, Georgia —- Gray Dot: PRWR
- 26 —- Shermar Stewart, Texas A&M —- Gray Dots: both RSWR and PRWR
- 37 —- Tyleik Williams, Ohio St. —- Gray Dot: PRWR
- 41 —- Landon Jackson, Arkansas —- Gray Dot: PRWR
- 49 —- Alfred Collins, Texas — Gray Dot: PRWR
- 62 —- Omarr Norman-Lott, Oklahoma —- Gray Dot: RSWR
Y’know, the way I figure it, at pick #16, why not select a Front 5 player who is excellent at both stopping the run and rushing the passer” Ya widd me dawgs?
Because guess what? This year, the Cardinals can!
Thus, my next step on the Blue Dot trail was to see which Power 5 defensive Front 5 players scored the highest percentages in run suuprt and pass rushing.
Blue Dot Power 5 Defensive Interior Run-Stop Win Rate %:
- Mason Graham, Michigan —- 12.0%
- Walter Nolen, Mississippi —- 11.9%
- C.J. West, Indiana —- 11.4%
- T.J. Sanders, South Carolina —- 8.8%
- Kenneth Grant —- 7.9%
Blue Dot Power 5 Defensive Interior Pass Rush Win Rate %:
- Derrick Harmon, Oregon —- 17.6%
- Mason Graham, Michigan —- 13.8%
- T.J. Sanders, South Carolina —- 12.6%
- Walter Nolen, Mississippi —- 10.9%
- Kenneth Grant, Michigan —- 9.4%
Blue Dot Power 5 Edge Run-Stop Win Rate %:
- Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College —- 10.1%
- James Pearce, Tennessee —- 10.1%
- Princely Umanmielen, Mississippi —- 8.6%
- Abdul Carter, Penn St. —- 7.6%
- Nic Scourton, Texas A&M —- 7.3%
Blue Dot Power 5 Edge Pass Rush Win Rate %:
- James Pearce, Tennessee —- 23.0%
- Princely Umanmielen, Mississippi —- 22.8%
- Abdul Carter, Penn St. —- 22.6%
- Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College —- 18.2%
- Nic Scourton, Texas A&M —- 17.0%
Players Who Made Both Top Fives:
DI —– (in alphabetical order)
- Mason Graham, Michigan
- Kenneth Grant, Michigan
- Walter Nolen, Mississippi
- T.J. Sanders, South Carolina
ED —-
- Abdul Carter, Penn St.
- Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College
- James Pierce, Tennessee
- Nic Scouton, Texas A&M
- Princely Umanmielen, Mississippi
Conclusion:
At Pick #16, the Cardinals should stick and pick one of these 9 Blue Dot Deluxe Defenders.
Assuming that Mason Graham and Abdul Carter are top 10 picks, the Final Four Blue Dot hopefuls for me are (in alphabetical order):
- Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College
- Kenneth Grant, Michigan
- Walter Nolen, Mississippi
- James Pearce, Tennessee
FYI —- CB Will Johnson’s Dots:
- Zone Coverage: Blue
- Run Defense: Gray
- Man Coverage: Orange
- Completion %: Gray
ROTB Polls:
How did you vote?