TEMPE — Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said it best heading into the bye week.
“The season starts now.”
With seven weeks remaining in the regular season, the Cardinals at 6-4 control their own divisional destiny by holding one-game lead in the NFC West.
According to The Upshot’s 2024 playoff simulator at the New York Times, which takes into account more than 50,000 simulations, Arizona has a 63% chance to make the postseason.
It’s safe to say the turnaround appears ahead of schedule. The Cardinals made it through the toughest part of the schedule and return off a bye likely needing four or five wins to secure the NFC West title — or at the very least a Wild Card spot.
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There is a buzz surrounding this football team that has been missing for some time outside of the first half of 2021.
And we all know how that year went.
That’s why this next three-game stretch is so important, beginning with Sunday’s game against division rival Seattle Seahawks. Arizona faces Seattle and Minnesota on the road before hosting the Seahawks.
I know a lot of eyes are focused on how the season ends with tilts against San Francisco and Los Angeles, but the last thing the Cardinals can do is afford to drop one on the road this week.
A loss to the Seahawks opens the door that much more for Seattle to stay in the NFC West title race. A Seahawks win could even put them atop the division by week’s end if San Francisco and Los Angeles fall this week.
According to The Upshot simulator, an Arizona win brings the Cardinals’ chances of winning the NFC West to around 80%. A loss drops the odds to around 50%.
That would mean the Seahawks would, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals while handing Arizona its first divisional loss of the year. That spotless divisional mark that gives the Cardinals a leg up on everyone else would be no more.
It’s on the Cardinals to firmly plant their flag as a playoff contender and end a trend that has continued through the past two regimes.
Since 2021, Arizona is 1-5 against the Seahawks. The quarterback for that lone win? Now-retired Colt McCoy.
The impact of earning a second win against Seattle in the last seven tries would be massive for the Cardinals. The 3-0 divisional mark would also guarantee it would finish no worse than .500 in that department.
That could be a deciding tiebreaker if the NFC West comes down to the wire, especially given how only the Rams currently have an above-.500 mark at 2-1. The 49ers (1-3) and Seahawks (1-2) can’t say the same.
Already sporting a lowly 17% chance at making the postseason, per The Upshot’s playoff simulator, the Seahawks would see that number drop to 4% with a loss to the Cardinals.
A clean sweep for Arizona in the next three weeks would put the Cardinals in an enviable spot with 97% odds to make the playoffs with four games remaining.
Even without a sweep, the springboard these next three games can be for the Cardinals cannot be denied ahead of two should-win games against Carolina and New England that follow.
But toss in just one loss to Seattle in that scenario and things take a turn with a 19% chance at the division.
A lot can still happen the rest of the way.
Getting the job done early would make things that much less interesting down the home stretch, where the playoffs begin to feel more like a formality than a possibility.