If the average career length for players is only three years, the average for head coaches can’t be much better. Long tenures for guys like Chiefs HC Andy Reid and Steelers HC Mike Tomlin obscure that for most head coaches, job security is a year-to-year proposition. In the last 15 years, NFL teams introduced 107 new coaching hires — a clip of seven per year. That means every three years, the league has essentially 66 percent turnover in the head coaching ranks.

Another batch of coaches is entering their final season on the job this year, but the good news is that it could be a relatively slower year for coaching changes. Firings tend to ebb and flow over three-year cycles, and with 15 new hires over the past two years, 2026 is shaping up to be an ebb. Looking around the league, there are just four coaches who are glaringly on the hot seat — guys who ended last year with open questions about whether they would be back until ownership gave a public vote of confidence.

But nothing sinks coaches quite like failing to meet expectations. And in a league where just 14 out of 32 teams make the playoffs and just one of those 14 ends the season feeling good about themselves, unmet expectations are common. A couple of coaches on the hot seat might turn things around this season, but history says by December they’ll be joined by a handful of others on the hot seat.

Here’s a look at which coaches could be in trouble if they fail to win enough games in 2025:

Defcon Red

Giants HC Brian Daboll

There might not be a coach under more pressure than Daboll this upcoming season. He arrived in New York with a reputation as a quarterback whisperer thanks to his work with Bills QB Josh Allen, and his first year reinforced that perception. The Giants made the playoffs and former QB Daniel Jones had the best season of his career, earning a multi-year extension the following offseason.

Unfortunately, Daboll couldn’t sustain that momentum over the next two years. Jones turned back into a pumpkin and the Giants stumbled to a 9-25 record over the past two years. Poor quarterback play has been a major weakness, but Daboll’s come under significant scrutiny for how he’s handled his coaching staff as well. This offseason, the Giants signed both veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, but the real hope is in first-round QB Jaxson Dart, who received Daboll’s stamp of approval during the pre-draft process this year. It’s not a stretch to say that Daboll’s future is tied to Dart’s.

Giants owner John Mara started fielding questions about Daboll’s job security last October, and the pressure from the fanbase and media to fire Daboll only ramped up as the season progressed (or regressed depending on your perspective). Through it all, Mara was true to his word that he wanted to be patient and give Daboll more time. Mara was undoubtedly influenced by his previous approach after firing each of Daboll’s three predecessors after two years or less, and there’s also been a push in ownership circles to curb the early firings that leave teams on the hook for reams of guaranteed salary. The Cardinals are still paying millions to Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury, as just one example.

Mara’s mindset is a mitigating factor when it comes to projecting Daboll’s future. How much more patience does he have in him? What does he think about Dart and the prospect of potentially handicapping his development by resetting with a new coach and scheme after a year? How is the rest of the roster and the work of GM Joe Schoen, who was hired alongside Daboll, assessed?

Does Daboll get any benefit of the doubt for a brutal opening schedule? New York opens with back-to-back road games against division foes Washington and Dallas, then hosts the Chiefs and Chargers at home. A Week 5 road trip against the Saints offers a slight reprieve, then it’s back into the breach (short week vs the Eagles, on the road against the Broncos, on the road against the Eagles, back at home against the 49ers). That slate has tempered a lot of optimism about the Giants even though they appeared to make some clear roster improvements this offseason.

It’ll be fascinating to track when Daboll turns to Dart as well. The team has been telling national and beat reporters that in an ideal world, Dart would redshirt the whole season while Wilson propels the Giants to being in the mix for a wildcard spot. Realistically, history says first-round quarterbacks play sooner rather than later, especially when jobs are on the line. Teams look for soft spots in the schedule like bye weeks and poor opponents to ease rookies into the lineup, but the Giants don’t have a bye until Week 14. The early schedule is unforgiving for a rookie passer, but that Week 5 matchup against the Saints looms as a potential debut for Dart, especially if the Giants are 0-4.

No matter when Dart enters the lineup, his performance from there will likely be viewed as a referendum on Daboll. The standard for Daboll to keep his job isn’t unattainable — he doesn’t necessarily have to make the playoffs with Dart, he just has to show signs of progress. In other words, he needs the vibes to be good. If the vibes are anything like the past two years, it feels unlikely Daboll will get another stay of execution from Mara.

Titans HC Brian Callahan

Callahan’s first season was a rough ride. The Titans won just three games all year and earned the No. 1 overall selection — not at all what owner Amy Adams Strunk was expecting when she fired former HC Mike Vrabel and gave more personnel power to former GM Ran Carthon. There was heat on Callahan at the end of the season, but in the end, Carthon was the one who was axed as Strunk reorganized the personnel department yet again, with new GM Mike Borgonzi joining newly-promoted president of football operations Chad Brinker.

Neither was part of the process for hiring Callahan, leaving the second-year coach already on thin ice going into his second season. Showing some kind of improvement feels mandatory, particularly with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward arriving to shore up what was one of the biggest weaknesses for Tennessee last year: quarterback.

Whether it was Will Levis or Mason Rudolph, Tennessee’s quarterbacks turned the ball over far too much, combining for 21 interceptions and 15 fumbles. The team as a whole turned the ball over 34 times, contributing to one of the weirdest stats I’ve seen in a while. The Titans ranked No. 2 in total defense last year but No. 30 in scoring defense, primarily because of the turnovers leading to short fields and sometimes even return touchdowns.

Getting better play out of Ward is mandatory for Callahan, and the hope is that the team has helped the environment around him improve by shoring up the offensive line. Tennessee gave big bucks to LT Dan Moore Jr. in free agency, and while they paid top-tier money to a player who might be closer to average, Moore does represent an upgrade and stabilizing force compared to what the Titans had to lean on last year. Moore’s arrival lets OT JC Latham shift back to his natural side on the right, while the team also signed veteran G Kevin Zeitler to hopefully solidify an interior that includes another former first-rounder, G Peter Skoronski, and C Lloyd Cushenberry returning from a torn Achilles.

The improvements up front give the Titans a chance to be solid on offense, as does a skill group that contains WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard and RB Tyjae Spears, plus a collection of rookies the team hopes can contribute. Expecting this unit to be a top-10 offense is probably unrealistic but if they’re close to average, that should be good enough to start.

Much will depend on Callahan’s coaching. The arrival of Ward is going to be both a blessing and a curse for him, depending on how things go. Obviously the chance to get a talented young quarterback is good for Callahan’s prospects, as no coach in NFL history has consistently won without high-quality quarterback play. But it’s also going to shine more of a spotlight on his decisions, in a way that coaching Levis and Rudolph last year didn’t. If the end of the season comes and Strunk, Brinker and Borgonzi feel that Callahan is not the best person to develop Ward into a high-end starter, they will make a change.

Colts HC Shane Steichen

There are parallels that can be drawn between Steichen and Daboll. Steichen started off strong in his first year despite challenges at the quarterback position, losing rookie Anthony Richardson after just a handful of (promising) starts and finishing out with journeyman Gardner Minshew. The Colts won nine games and came within a play or two of winning the division before being bested by QB C.J. Stroud’s Texans.

Like Daboll, that momentum petered out in Year 2. The Colts still won eight games but the expected step forward from the team and Richardson did not materialize. The young passer was benched at one point for another journeyman QB, Joe Flacco, as Steichen decided the latter gave the team its best shot to compete for a playoff berth. After an underwhelming stretch from Flacco, Richardson returned to the lineup with many of the same problems as before. Two crippling losses in the final four games — one a collapse against the Broncos in what was virtually a playoff elimination game, the other a blowout at the hands of a three-win Giants squad — sealed the Colts’ fate.

Quarterback remains a concern, and we’ll get into more into that in a moment. But the way things fell apart for the Colts last year revealed major cultural cracks in the building. Starting midseason, there were players who talked openly about the need for more accountability. As the season progressed, more took public or anonymous shots at the organization, citing a lack of vision or other cultural failings. Former players like Pat McAfee absolutely shredded the current team with similar critiques.

As the head coach, all of that falls at Steichen’s feet, along with other criticisms about his play-calling and some of his public relations gaffes that left Richardson and others under fire in the media. That alone would have been cause for the pressure to ratchet up heading into Year 3. But the biggest warning sign for Steichen’s job security is the ascension of new owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon following the death of her father, longtime Colts owner Jim Irsay. New owners always mean big changes sooner rather than later, and while Irsay-Gordon has been heavily involved with the day-to-day of the team (including listening in on the coaching headsets during games), now she has final say.

If the Colts stagnate or take a step back again in 2025, major changes are on the table. That could mean at head coach. It could mean at general manager, where Chris Ballard has overseen things for eight years with a 62-69-1 record, and it could mean at quarterback where the latest veteran Richardson has to fend off is former Giants first-round bust Daniel Jones. The two are competing for the starting job and there’s no deference to Richardson’s draft capital. Jones is probably the current favorite to win, and it’s less because he’s been tearing things up at camp and more because Richardson has continued to have the same issues, including inaccuracy and nagging injuries.

Steichen came to Indianapolis with a reputation for working well with quarterbacks, and if he ends up getting the Colts in the playoffs or at least in contention with Jones and Richardson, he’ll have earned another shot. If not, Irsay-Gordon will have her chance to put the stamp on the team.

Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel

So far in 2025, the Dolphins are the leading contender for my unscientific, somewhat arbitrary Worst Vibes Award. I don’t think Miami will be the worst team in football next year but the parade of headlines this year has been shockingly and unrelentingly bad. There’s been precious little good news and it’s hard to find a lot of people optimistic about the upcoming season, even from a fanbase that’s infamously sunny. A non-exhaustive list of vibe-killers:

Star WR Tyreek Hill pulled himself out of a game in Week 18, then proceeded to tell reporters postgame he was open to leaving the team to do what was best for his career.
While he and the team reached a truce and Miami has been insistent it’s not looking to trade Hill, things still feel off. Hill made headlines off the field again with a domestic incident in April, and QB Tua Tagovailoa said during camp that Hill needed to make an effort to repair relationships after his comments.
Once again, the Dolphins had more high-profile exits (S Jevon Holland, DL Calais Campbell, LT Terron Armstead) than notable additions this offseason. The team took the attrition on the chin and pled poor as a reason for not doing more to replace what it lost. The Dolphins are financially tied down by big contracts for Hill, Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle, OLB Bradley Chubb and others.
Less than a year after the Dolphins gave CB Jalen Ramsey a market-setting extension with multiple years left on his contract, the relationship between the two sides deteriorated so much that Miami felt like it had no choice but to trade the veteran corner. Specifically, there were reports that Ramsey and McDaniel weren’t seeing eye to eye.
Rather than give TE Jonnu Smith a new contract after his breakout season, the Dolphins traded him along with Ramsey to the Steelers for S Minkah Fitzpatrick. It shored up a weakness at safety but left gaping holes at cornerback and tight end.
Culture was a buzzword for the Dolphins going into the 2024 season, with an emphasis on becoming a more physical and resilient team. After 2024 featured most of the same pitfalls as 2023 and 2022, Chubb admitted during OTAs that players were basically lying when they said they had it fixed last year — but that things were finally different in 2025!
Miami has had two joint practices during camp so far, one against the Bears and one against the Dolphins. Chicago was clearly the more physical team in the first, and in the second, the Dolphins were called out beforehand by Lions LB Grant Stuard: “I don’t know if they’re ready, I’m gonna keep it a stack. I’ve played at other places and played against that team last year, and joint practiced against that team twice when I was in Tampa. I don’t know if they practice how we practice.” By all accounts, the Lions absolutely dominated practice.

None of this is good news for McDaniel, who seemed like a rising star after taking the Dolphins’ head coaching job in 2022. He immediately helped turn around Tagovailoa’s career with a cutting-edge offensive scheme that shredded teams. He was fresh and different, including his style and mannerisms which were unusual and unorthodox for an NFL head coach. Miami raced out to hot starts and finished top-six in total offense those two seasons. McDaniel’s record in three years is 28-23 with two playoff appearances.

But the same problems have continued to rear their head. McDaniel’s system is a finely tuned machine that falls apart without Tagovailoa at the controls — and Tagovailoa has missed 10 games over the past three years, including with repeated concussions. McDaniel’s offense also gets worse as the season goes on and the weather gets colder, earning a reputation as a finesse operation, not a physical one. The Dolphins have lost in the playoffs both years under McDaniel, and the culture of the team has become a weakness that’s been spotlighted more each passing year.

With that context and everything that’s happened so far this offseason, this upcoming season has the feeling of a train that’s close to careening off the tracks. If the Dolphins bottom out, does owner Stephen Ross consider major changes? There’s plenty to find fault with for GM Chris Grier, whose rebuilding strategy seems to have left the Dolphins with a capped ceiling that they have to expend tons of energy just to maintain. But could Ross justify a clean sweep with all the persistent problems McDaniel has been unable to shake so far as well?

There’s a real debate to be had about McDaniel as a head coach, with fair and unfair critiques. He does things differently and it feels like there are just as many examples of how that’s been a positive in his first three seasons as a negative. The NFL is a results-based business, though, and the results this upcoming season will likely serve as a referendum on McDaniel’s quirky style.

Defcon Yellow

Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon

Gannon, like the other coaches in this category, isn’t necessarily on the hot seat right now. But he’s in a position where his seat could warm up quickly with poor results in this upcoming campaign. More than likely, that would make him one of the names to lead off the 2026 version of this column, but if the Cardinals really take a step back, it’s not completely out of the question he’d be let go.

That’s not what people in Arizona are talking about right now, though. The Cardinals are in Year 3 under Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort, hired at the same time to turn the team around after the failed tenure of former GM Steve Keim and HC Kliff Kingsbury. The first year was rough as Ossenfort tore the roster down to the studs and QB Kyler Murray missed a big chunk of time while recovering from a torn ACL. The two subsequent offseasons have been about building back that talent around Murray. Now it’s time to win. The Cardinals should be a team that pushes for at least a wildcard berth in the NFC and possibly even an NFC West title.

It seemed like the Cardinals might have been ahead of schedule last year, entering the bye in Week 11 at 6-4 and in first place in the NFC West. But Arizona wilted down the stretch, losing twice to the Seahawks, falling to the Rams and even slipping up on an East Coast road trip against the Panthers. While an 8-9 record was a significant step forward from 4-13 the year before, that finish contributed to a feeling that the team underachieved.

Making the playoffs is the logical next step. Ossenfort and Gannon have had three years to build the roster to their liking and instill what they want the culture to be. This is Year 3 in the same system for Murray, so he should have mastery of what OC Drew Petzing wants to do. The NFC West isn’t a cakewalk division but all three of the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks face major questions this year. This should be when it all comes together for the Cardinals, assuming no major injuries.

If it doesn’t, it’s not out of the question there could be some serious fallout.

Falcons HC Raheem Morris

When most coaches are hired, it’s to help turn around a previously bad team. But in Morris’ case, he was brought on because Falcons owner Arthur Blank believed former HC Arthur Smith was not maximizing a playoff-caliber roster. Morris was hired to be an upgrade and he wasn’t shy about discussing his expectations for the Falcons to not just compete but contend in 2024. He even hired a deeper-than-usual coaching staff because he expected Atlanta to be so successful that other teams would raid their staff.

That’s not how it panned out. The Falcons couldn’t find a consistent groove all year, ultimately finishing 8-9 and out of the playoffs. Morris fired DC Jimmy Lake and replaced him with former Jets DC Jeff Ulbrich, while on the offensive side of the ball the team formalized the transition from veteran QB Kirk Cousins to 2024 No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. Those two moves along with the addition of first-round pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce are fueling another wave of internal optimism in Atlanta.

Outside prognostications are more tempered but the internal view is the one that matters. Blank hired Morris instead of former Patriots HC Bill Belichick because he believed Morris was better equipped to turn the team into a contender. If the Falcons fail to deliver on that potential in 2025, it could lead the soon-to-be-83-year-old Blank to re-evaluate things once again.

Browns HC Kevin Stefanski

Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year winner and both came off seasons in which he led the Browns to the playoffs, which is an interesting commentary on how the Browns are viewed nationally. Last year was more of a slog. Quarterback issues submarined the season from the jump as Cleveland’s last-chance bet on Deshaun Watson fizzled when he tore his Achilles. With that contract still weighing the team down for two more seasons, the Browns look like they’re embracing a multi-year rebuild.

That means that expectations for Stefanski aren’t sky-high or anything, and there’s been zero sign from Browns management that he or GM Andrew Berry are on the hot seat. Owner Jimmy Haslam said in his last media appearance that he wasn’t faulting those two for the Watson disaster, calling that a collective mistake. Stefanski is well-regarded in the building and around the league for more than just his coach of the year awards. He’s viewed as a solid offensive designer and play-caller and a rare ego-less coach who’s capable of adjusting to a lot of extenuating circumstances.

Still, no one in the league is immune to losing for too long. The Browns won just three games last year and finished with the No. 2 pick. Ideally, Haslam would probably like to see some progress from those finishes, even if the organization is taking a long view of its competitive timeline.

Panthers HC Dave Canales

The Panthers finished last season on an upswing and there’s some positive buzz around the team for the first time in a long while. Canales took a big risk benching QB Bryce Young, the player he was hired to fix, after just two games last year, and it paid off. Young used his time on the bench to reset and when he re-entered the starting lineup later in the year, he looked like a different player. Instead of looking for a new quarterback, Carolina spent this offseason building around Young, reinforcing the defense and his receiving corps. Top decision-makers in Carolina aren’t talking about playoffs yet but the expectation is for the team to take a step forward.

What if that doesn’t happen, though? What if Young regresses and the Panthers fail to materially improve from the last couple of seasons? Owner Dave Tepper has a reputation as trigger-happy and meddlesome, a label he clearly doesn’t want to wear. But if the Panthers take a step back, that could have him reassessing the status of Young and Canales.

Bengals HC Zac Taylor

Taylor survived a 6-25-1 record in his first two seasons, and he’s acknowledged that for most other teams besides Cincinnati, that would have been it for him. But Bengals owner Mike Brown is infamously slow to fire head coaches and gave Taylor another shot. He rebounded to win 22 games in his next two seasons and reach the Super Bowl with QB Joe Burrow, earning him significant benefit of the doubt. Saying that Taylor is on the hot seat would not be an accurate read on the situation.

But there’s a pressure that comes with having Burrow at quarterback. He raises the floor for the whole organization, however, that comes with a demand for excellence from all the other parts of the team. The Bengals should be Super Bowl contenders every single season that Burrow is healthy and under center, and every year that’s not the case forces an evaluation of everyone around him. There are some signs that Taylor’s starting to feel a little bit of that heat.

After missing the playoffs each of the last two seasons, Taylor fired longtime DC Lou Anarumo, who was a part of his first coaching staff with the team, and replaced him with former Notre Dame DC Al Golden. Taylor has also revamped parts of how he handles the offseason and training camp in an effort to start the season faster, as a poor record in September has been a hallmark of Taylor’s tenure even in strong years. Those changes aren’t just to save Taylor’s job, they’re aimed at accomplishing his biggest task as a head coach, which is ensuring that the Bengals don’t waste the years they have with Burrow.

Once a coach starts firing his assistants, though, they start running out of people to blame if things don’t improve. Overall, Taylor still has a losing record as a coach at 46-52-1 despite four straight winning seasons. If the Bengals miss the playoffs again in 2025, there will be far more pressure on Taylor than the last time his job was in jeopardy given the stakes of the situation.

First Year Coaches

Impatient owners and the relentlessly high bar of competition in the NFL exact a steep toll on the coaching ranks. In the last 10 years, there’s been a one-and-done firing in all but two seasons:

2024: Patriots HC Jerod Mayo and Raiders HC Antonio Pierce (8 new hires)
2023: Panthers HC Frank Reich (5 new hires)
2022: Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett and Texans HC Lovie Smith (10 new hires)
2021: Jaguars HC Urban Meyer and Texans HC David Culley (7 new hires)
2020: (5 new hires)
2019: Browns HC Freddie Kitchens (8 new hires)
2018: Cardinals HC Steve Wilks (7 new hires)
2017: (6 new hires)
2016: 49ers HC Chip Kelly (7 new hires)
2015: 49ers HC Jim Tomsula (7 new hires)

The numbers suggest an overall attrition factor, as the years without one-and-dones have a lower number of hirings overall. With 11 first-year firings out of 70, history says that of the seven head coaches hired this past cycle — New England’s Mike Vrabel, Chicago’s Ben Johnson, Jacksonville’s Liam Coen, New York’s Aaron Glenn, Las Vegas’ Pete Carroll, Dallas’ Brian Schottenheimer and New Orleans’ Kellen Moore — one will not return for Year 2 on the job in 2026.

However, the league is aware of this trend too and has been working to address it. Coaching buyouts have been a subject of discussion at recent owners meetings with prominent voices like Cowboys owner Jerry Jones urging colleagues to curb the millions being spent to pay coaches not to work. That honestly could have been a factor in how the Cowboys handled their coaching situation with former HC Mike McCarthy, electing not to fire him despite years of speculation only to let him walk when his contract expired.

This current batch of coaches should have some outside pressures working in their favor when it comes to patience on the job. There’s some firepower in this group, to,o with names like Vrabel, Carroll and Johnson, which should influence owners to have some more patience. Still, dysfunctional environments have a way of staying dysfunctional, and some of these coaches have landed with teams that have been bad for a long time. I feel less confident than last year that a first-year coach will be fired but it’s impossible to rule it out given the trends.

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