When the Pac-12 released its preseason coaches poll in early February, you had to scroll pretty far down to find Arizona in ninth place. Utah, the Wildcats’ opponent this weekend, was picked 10th.
Those teams are in first and second place, respectively, in the Pac-12 with two weekends left in the regular season.
“Any coach will tell you, it really doesn’t mean a whole lot,” UA coach Chip Hale said this week of the preseason poll. “Anything that you do on preseason rankings, you either take too much credit for what the team did last year, or you’re just going on who’s got guys coming back.”
Arizona (30-17, 17-7 Pac-12) goes into the penultimate weekend of conference play with a 2-game lead on Utah (30-16, 15-9). Right behind them are Oregon State (36-12, 14-9) and Oregon (32-15, 14-10), and OSU comes to Tucson next weekend.
The Wildcats have won four in a row—most recently beating ASU 5-3 in Phoenix on Tuesday—since a 3-game skid. Overall, they’ve won 20 of 24 since starting 10-13.
A lot of things have factored into Arizona’s performance the last six weeks. The pitching staff has the best ERA in Pac-12 play (3.40) and leads the nation in both strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.63) and walks per nine innings (2.5). Mason White is tied with Pac-12 Player of the Year frontrunner Travis Bazzana of Oregon State for the conference lead in RBI (59), and the overall batting order has massively cut down on strikeouts after being addicted to whiffing early in the season.
Speaking of that order, the likely starting nine this weekend includes a pair of young players who were not expected to be regular contributors this season. True freshman Andrew Cain is hitting .343 in Pac-12 play and leads the team in average exit velocity, while redshirt freshman TJ Adams has more than filled in admirably in left field in the absence of Easton Breyfogle.
“TJ has been probably the biggest surprise for us because losing Easton was a huge deal,” Hale said. “His speed, his defense, everything that he was doing for us when he got sick and then coming back and finally getting the bat going again and them pulling the hamstring. TJ has filled in unbelievably and added another facet to our team with the right-handed power.”
Adams, from Mesa, hit his first college home run in the win at ASU. He had a large cheering section at the game, the byproduct of his mother getting her Master’s degree that morning.
“It was a dream come true,” said Adams, who is 10 for 21 in the past six games.
A backlog of outfielders caused Adams to redshirt in 2023, which gave him extra time to fix what hitting coach Toby DeMello called a “loopy” swing.
“We call it the barrel turn and his barrel would kind of dump a little bit,” DeMello said. “We wanted him to just be a little more direct, where he wouldn’t struggle with the high fastball and really shorten his lengthen zone. It got a little too uphill.”
Though a smaller sample size, Adams’ 14.9 percent strikeout rate is better than five other current starters and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .424 is second-best among the regulars.
“It was just being patient, wait for my time and just once you get it, just take advantage of it,” Adams said.
Scouting the Utes
Utah is arguably a bigger surprise than Arizona because the Utes were 9-20-1 in Pac-12 play last season. But the Utes are extremely veteran, with all but one regular in the lineup a junior or senior, and that group has combined for a conference-best 81 stolen bases on 105 attempts.
Arizona has allowed 31 steals in 45 tries.
“I think we’ve done a good job of throwing guys out,” Hale said. “We have to keep (runners) close (at first base). It’s one of our points of emphasis this week. That is a big part of their game. Veteran guys who know what they’re doing on the bases, so we need to shut that down.”
The Utes also have one of the top contenders for Pac-12 Pitcher of the Year in senior left-hander Bryson Van Sickle. He is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA, 2.68 in eight conference starts, and eight of closer Micah Ashman’s 11 saves have come in league play.
An off series format
Because it shares Smith’s Ballpark with the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees, Utah’s home games get second billing as far as start times. As a result, the opener and middle game will be at 10 a.m. PT (11 a.m. in Salt Lake City) in order for the facility to be turned over to the Bees for night games.
But Sunday’s finale will be at 6 p.m. PT, as the Bees will play in the afternoon, meaning more than 24 hours between games.
Hale said the early starts will cause Arizona to invert its preparation, lifting Friday and Saturday evening rather than the morning of games.
“The Saturday day to the Sunday night, that’s completely different,” he said. “I feel like we’re playing Sunday Night Baseball in the Major Leagues. So maybe we’re getting some guys ready for the future.”
Latest NCAA projections
Both D1Baseball and Baseball America have Arizona projected as the No. 2 seed in a regional hosted by UC-Santa Barbara, which is projected to be the No. 15 and No. 16 national seeds, respectively.
With an RPI of 34, the Wildcats’ chances to host a regional seem slim. But their remaining six regular season games can all provide significant boosts to their resume, with the three at Utah (No. 70) considered Quad 2 games and the final series with Oregon State (No. 15) in the Quad 1 category.