Don’t you just love when a plan comes together?
Around this time a year ago, Tommy Lloyd and his staff set out to rebuild an Arizona program that was lacking something. Not wins, of course, as it had piled up plenty in the previous season, albeit with a caveat:
None came in the NCAA tournament.
Arizona’s first-round exit at the hands of Princeton was as illuminating as it was upsetting. It was not as if the 15th-seeded Tigers had played out of their mind. There was no barrage of 3-pointers and no ref-fueled parade to the free throw line. No, Princeton pulled off the upset over the second-seeded Wildcats because Arizona had neither the will nor the way to match up with the plucky underdog.
Neither were acceptable reasons, not for a team with championship aspirations and Final Four expectations.
And yet, Lloyd was tasked with figuring out how to build a team that, while skilled and talented, was also tough and versatile.
He did exactly that.
Although the Cats have only won two games in this tourney, both over teams they were favored to beat, the way in which the victories occurred is a testament to Lloyd’s work.
Against Long Beach State the UA showed maturity and toughness when the offense sputtered some and the Beach not only hung around, but took the lead. While some fans may have had flashbacks to the prior year, the team kept its composure, coming out of halftime confident and ready to put the game away.
The next round saw the Wildcats face a Dayton team that again, while not as good as Arizona, presented a reasonable opportunity for an upset. Their slow pace combined with an athletic center and three-point shooters seemed like a recipe for defeat, and heading into halftime with a big lead on the ropes it may have felt one was coming.
Unable to pull away from the Flyers, Arizona was able to counter their opponent with a smaller lineup that helped restore order. Then with a great performance from Jaden Bradley off the bench, the Cats were ultimately able to put the game away.
Arizona’s depth was on full display, with Bradley as well as KJ Lewis and Mo Krivas producing off the bench. Having eight players who could be trusted in a tournament game gave Lloyd the ability to find a combination that would work, and find one he did.
A guest of Wildcat Radio 2.0 this week, Evan Miyakawa of EvanMiya.com said the idea that Arizona is deeper this season than in previous years is accurate, and in no subtle way.
Miyakawa’s system goes with what is called the Bayesian Performance Rating, which is used to measure a player’s impact on both ends of the court independent of role.
“How is a player impacting team performance when they’re on the floor,” he said. “When you look at all of Arizona’s rotation players, the worst rated player — there’s actually several that are kind of in a clump there — but Keshad Johnson is ranked the worst out of those eight, K.J. Lewis is just a little bit ahead of him on a per-possession basis.
“But Keshad Johnson still ranks inside the top 170 in the country in BPR. So all eight players for Arizona are inside the top 170 so that really speaks to their depth.”
Sure, this is just one guy’s metrics, but Miyakawa’s work has been highlighted all over the college hoops landscape, and chances are if you’re reading this column you’ve at least heard of him.
So eight of the top 170 players, that’s not bad.
Miyakawa pointed to Purdue, whose 8th-best player ranks outside the top 500. And with regards to Arizona’s Sweet 16 opponent Clemson, it’s even worse.
Not that Purdue, Clemson or everyone else doesn’t have quality players, because they certainly do. Just, Arizona’s strength is in not necessarily relying on any one player to have a great game in order to win and no matter the lineup, Lloyd has high-level players on the floor.
This was certainly not the case last season, as Miyakawa said Arizona’s eighth-best playerCedric Henderson was outside the top 500. The year before Justin Kier was eighth, and he was just inside the top 500.
The last two years everything needed to go right for Arizona, and it didn’t. They entered the tournament banged up and tired, lacked the experience or toughness to fight through rough patches and lacked the kind of depth needed to withstand a bad matchup.
This year that is not the case. Along with the requisite talent, Arizona appears to have the intangibles, the unseen-but-oh-so-important qualities needed to make a deep run. And while this doesn’t mean the Cats are destined to cut down some nets, it’s hard not to like their chances.
If Arizona is going to reach the Final Four and possibly beyond, their best players will need to play well. Just, Arizona has more best players than most which means they can better survive an off night from a starter, foul trouble or a difficult opponent.
And this time of year survival is what it’s all about. Being able to do so in different ways, well, that’s an advantage not all teams have.