Two years ago Arizona football vastly exceeded preseason expectations. A year ago, the opposite occurred, as the Wildcats finished 2024 as one of college football’s biggest disappointments.
Heading into 2025, Arizona is expected to be among the bottom Power 4 programs, according to ESPN’s SP+ projections. The UA ranks No. 60 in ESPN writer Bill Connelly’s statistically-driven rankings, including 14th of 16 programs in the Big 12.
Arizona is projected to win an average 5.4 games overall and 3.4 games in the Big 12. SP+ gives Arizona a 2.9% chance to win the Big 12 title, which is tied with Colorado for 10th-best in the conference.
Arizona has a 46.9% chance of winning six games to reach bowl eligibility.
SP+ gives special weight to continuity on offense and defense. Connelly isn’t convinced Arizona has enough returning players on either unit, but especially so on offense.
Connelly writes that of Arizona’s 2024 defense, “only defensive end Tre Smith, nickel Dalton Johnson and linebacker Taye Brown did anything particularly disruptive, and of those 22 guys, only nine return.”
“Brennan needed a successful portal haul, and while the FCS-to-FBS transfers are sometimes hard to project, I like what he added,” Connelly writes. “The extremes of Arizona’s last two seasons have been dizzying, but the Wildcats have averaged seven wins and a No. 50 SP+ ranking the last two years; that’s probably too high a bar to clear this season, especially with six top-50 opponents on the schedule, but I don’t think it’s impossible.”