No. 12 Arizona had a successful inaugural season in the Big 12. While Big 12 softball will not have anyone forgetting the glory of the Pac-12 any time soon, it was a competitive league with some of the top pitchers in the country, and the Wildcats managed to outperform projections with a second-place finish.
Arizona won six of its eight series. Dropping two games to Texas Tech was not a surprise, but UCF’s upset of the Wildcats during the opening weekend of conference play was. Ultimately, it didn’t matter in the standings, though. Even if UA had swept the Knights, the Red Raiders would have won the league by a game. Arizona arguably has the best overall team in the Big 12, but TTU has the best pitcher and that still matters.
Did that first Big 12 weekend give the Wildcats’ potential opening opponent some confidence going into the tournament? If UCF takes care of business on Wednesday afternoon, both teams will find out. Arizona could play the Knights when Thursday rolls around.
The top five teams in the league standings get opening-round byes. That means Texas Tech, Arizona, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona State will rest on Wednesday.
“Any extra day of rest, of recovery, or even film always helps,” said Arizona centerfielder Regan Shockey. “I mean, it can never hurt, but I would say, whether we had to play on [Wednesday] or not, we would be just fine.”
Arizona will have its eye on the game between No. 7 UCF (32-21-1, 12-12) and No. 10 Utah (13-39, 5-19) on Wednesday. The Utes showed in the last few years that they could make a run in a single-elimination conference tournament, but they are not the same team they were in those years. They won just two conference series and were swept five times this season. The closest they got to being the team of the past two years was close losses to Oregon, LSU, and Washington, and a win over San Diego State.
While they would be the tougher matchup, the Wildcats should probably be pulling for the Knights to win. UCF went into Sunday’s game with an RPI of 29. While a loss is never desirable this time of year, it probably wouldn’t be much worse than a win over No. 128 Utah.
The unfortunate thing about being seeded second is that it matches Arizona with Iowa State if both teams advance on Thursday. While the Cyclones had a surprising finish at No. 3, it can largely be chalked up to scheduling.
ISU is not the kind of RPI booster that SEC teams will be facing in their tournament. It’s not even the kind of RPI booster that top teams in the Big Ten will face later in their tournament. The top four seeds in the Big Ten all have an RPI in the top 25.
ISU did not face Arizona or Texas Tech in league play this year. The Cyclones played just seven games against the RPI’s top 25 teams. That ties BYU and Houston for the fewest in the Big 12. ISU did poorly against those teams, going 2-5. It also lost three games against teams outside the top 150, more than anyone in the league except Utah.
Despite the historic conference tournament seed, those numbers mean Iowa State has an RPI of 64. In the Big 12, only Houston (80) and Utah (128) are worse. Arizona doesn’t have to win any games to get into the NCAA Tournament. It has done that work. However, if the Wildcats are going to host—especially through the Super Regionals—they cannot lose before the final.
Arizona has to get past its first game for that to be a concern, though. That likely means getting to .500 against UCF. That could be difficult.
A single-elimination tournament is tricky. The competition is much more volatile and upsets are more likely to happen. It’s why the winners of both the men’s and the women’s versions of the College World Series are more likely to be the best teams in the country than the winners of March Madness. One bad night against one bad matchup can end things.
In addition to its two road wins against the Wildcats, the Knights picked up 11 wins against teams in the RPI’s top 50. Five of those were against the top 25 teams in the NCAA’s selection rankings. The biggest came against No. 2 Florida on Mar. 26, but they also have wins over No. 13 Clemson and No. 20 Oklahoma State.
Most of the Knights’ big games came early in the season. They have played just three against the RPI top 25 over the final month of the regular season. By comparison, Arizona has played six over the same period.
The biggest concern for the Wildcats heading into any single-elimination tournament is that they have lost at least one game to every Big 12 opponent except Houston and Utah.
If the seeds hold, the Wildcats and Red Raiders will play for the title on Saturday. In that case, Arizona is the team that knows it can pull off the upset in a single-game format. The team has not been swept this year, including by Texas Tech.
The Wildcats won the first game between Arizona and Texas Tech with Devyn Netz emerging victorious over NiJaree Canady in a 2-1 contest. If they can reproduce the feat, they could be conference champions for the first time since 2017 and the first time ever in their new league.
Big 12 Tournament seeds and schedule
All times are Central Daylight Time. Subtract two hours for Mountain Standard Time. All games before the final will be on ESPN+. The final will be aired on ESPN.
Screenshot from Big 12 Conference press release