Which team can exploit the weakness of of the other?
The No. 21 Arizona Wildcats are a team that appears to be in search of an identity. They are pitching at a much higher level than last season, but they are seeing some offensive struggles from players who normally produce a great deal. What do the numbers say about what they have and how they improve?
Arizona softball heads into an early week against the best pitching it has seen this season. The No. 21 Wildcats have improved in the circle by a considerable margin, but they still have some ground to make up to be on the same level as the No. 7 Stanford Cardinal.
NiJaree Canady and Regan Krause give this week’s opponent two of the top seven ERA in the Pac-12. Canady’s 0.59 leads the league, as does her 0.53 WHIP. Krause is sporting an ERA of 2.46, ranking seventh. Her WHIP of 1.40 is well behind her teammate, though. It’s also behind Arizona’s two primary pitchers.
Arizona isn’t a slouch in the circle. Sophomore Aissa Silva ranks fifth in the Pac-12 with a 2.22 ERA. Silva and teammate Miranda Stoddard give the Wildcats two of the best WHIP in the league with Silva’s 1.10 ranked fourth and Stoddard’s 1.21 ranked ninth.
The major difference between the two teams is how they have done in conference play. The Wildcats have seen their pitching numbers balloon since Pac-12 competition started.
In Pac-12 play, Arizona has been without the services of freshman Brooke Mannon for most of its games. Her appearance against California on Sunday was her first Pac-12 game. She was medically cleared to play after Saturday’s game and only for a specified number of pitches.
That has meant its pitching staff consisted of Silva, Stoddard, and Ali Blanchard for most of conference play. Blanchard got into one game, but a combination of walks and errors committed in the field led to her getting shelled.
Silva’s overall ERA of 2.22 turns into 3.88 against the Pac-12. Stoddard’s jumps from 3.22 to 5.68 while Blanchard’s increases from 2.33 to 4.50. Mannon’s appearance last Sunday gave her a 12.60 league ERA compared to 2.96 overall.
The problem for the Arizona bullpen is the same this year as it was last: home runs. Stoddard and Silva are first and tied for fourth in home runs surrendered this year. Stoddard has allowed 17 in 82.2 IP. Stoddard is allowing a round-tripper 0.21 times per inning. Silva has given up 10 in 82 innings of work, amounting to 0.12 HR per IP. Blanchard has given up five in just 15 innings pitched this season, so opponents are hitting 0.33 HR per inning when they face the 5th year pitcher.
Krause has some issues with the long ball, but it is not as severe as the challenges faced by the Arizona pitchers. The senior hurler is tied for tenth in the league with seven home runs in 68.1 IP. That works out to 0.10 per inning.
On the offensive side, the Cardinal aren’t on the same level as the Wildcats. Whether it’s contact hitting, hitting the ball out of the park, or driving in runs, Arizona has the upper hand.
Arizona freshman Regan Shockey ranks fifth in the Pac-12 with a .426 batting average. Her sophomore teammate Dakota Kennedy is right behind in sixth, averaging .406 this season.
The Cardinal does not have a player show up in the batting average rankings until No. 24 River Mahler. The sophomore is hitting .351 this year.
The difference isn’t just at the top, either. The Wildcats have seven players in the top 50 of the league’s batting average rankings. An eighth would be included but Arizona has been swapping Jasmine Perezchica and Kaiah Altmeyer in and out of the lineup in right field.
Altmeyer is only hitting .273, which is just outside the top 500. However, Perezchica is simply not getting enough plate appearances to qualify. She has 52 plate appearances in Arizona’s 31 games this season, which amounts to 1.7 PA per game played by the Wildcats. To qualify, players must have at least 2 PA per game. She is hitting .400, which would place her in the top 10 if she qualified.
In addition to Altmeyer, Tayler Biehl is the only other Wildcat who qualifies for ranking but falls outside the top 50 in the conference. Biehl started very slowly this season and is hitting just .176. However, she had a strong series at California last week, going 4 for 12 with two home runs, a double, and five RBI.
On the power front, Arizona has two players in the top 10 for home runs, Allie Skaggs (T2 with 9) and Carlie Scupin (T9 with 7). Sophomore designated player Olivia DiNardo is tied for 11th with six and freshman catcher Emily Schepp is tied for 19th with four.
The Cardinal do not go out of the park very often. Their two top HR hitters are Ava Gall and Aly Kaneshiro, who have five each. That puts them in a group of three tied at 16th in the Pac-12. Taryn Kern and Caelan Koch have four each, putting them with Schepp in a group of 10 players tied at 19th.
Arizona has two other players in the top 50. Biehl is tied at 29th with three and Dakota Kennedy is tied at 39th with two. Stanford has one more in the group of 50 with Jade Berry’s two long balls putting her in the same group as Kennedy.
As a team, Arizona has hit 33 home runs compared to Stanford’s 24. The Cardinal have made up for that by limiting the number of home runs they allow their opponents to hit. The Stanford pitching staff has only surrendered 13 home runs this year while Arizona has given up 33.
Scoring runs is not all about hitting the ball out of the park, though. Arizona will probably need to manufacture runs against Stanford. That makes every hit, every RBI opportunity, crucial. The Wildcats may have a frustrating number of runners left on base, but they are also doing a comparatively good job of getting those runners in to score.
Carlie Scupin is tied for the league lead with 36 RBI. Skaggs has 25, placing her seventh in the Pac-12. In conference play, it is Skaggs who leads. She is tied for first with 12 of her 25 RBI coming since league play kicked off. Biehl’s seven in Pac-12 competition is tied for eighth. Scupin falls to a 12th-place tie with six.
Mahler has been Stanford’s run producer since Pac-12 competition started. She has driven in seven runs in league play, placing her in a tie for eighth. She has 17 overall this season, putting her in a four-way tie for 27th.
No one else on the team has more than four against Pac-12 competition. Berry’s four puts her in a tie for 29th in Pac-12 play.
Last season, the series between these two teams was decided by Stanford’s ability to manufacture runs. The Cardinal swept with the three games decided by a total of seven runs. The Wildcats will need to take advantage of the few opportunities they get if they hope to return the favor this season.