With the way the series between the two teams went earlier this season, No. 12 Washington would seem to have a big advantage heading into Thursday’s Pac-12 Softball Tournament quarterfinal matchup against No. 18 Arizona. It’s one reason the possibility of seeing No. 24 Oregon in the first game was so attractive.
The Huskies run-ruled the Wildcats by scores of 13-2 and 11-3 in the first two games before losing 2-0 in the final game. At least one prognosticator thinks the game will be a toss-up, though.
Warrennolan.com has the game as a 5-4 Washington win. The Huskies have a 54 percent win probability according to the stats site.
The Wildcats had to correct course after last weekend’s games played out. The Huskies were in third place heading into the final weekend of the Pac-12 regular season. They were on their way to Salt Lake City to play Utah, a team that was 8-13 in conference play.
In Palo Alto, second-place Stanford was hosting Oregon. The Ducks were in fourth place. It looked like they might need a sweep to jump UW. That didn’t seem likely.
Everything broke just right for the Ducks. They won one game against the Cardinal. Washington lost the first two games to Utah then had the third game canceled due to weather. The two teams were tied and Oregon held the tiebreaker.
“I think a lot of us were prepared to play Oregon, which a lot of I’m assuming the Pac-12 fans were assuming as well,” said Arizona second baseman Allie Skaggs. “But my opinion at the end of the day is we’re gonna eventually play great teams every single game, so honestly, it’s just another great matchup for us. So it doesn’t matter if we’re playing Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Stanford. We’re eventually going to have to be several good teams if we want to win the Pac-12 tournament.”
It’s true that they will have to face the top teams eventually if they want the title. However, the road will be tougher right from the get-go now. The series against UW in mid-March showed some of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Wildcats and the Huskies.
Washington comes in with a pitching rotation led by Ruby Meylan and Lindsay Lopez. Both have ERA in the top 10 of the conference. Meylan is third with a 2.04. Lopez is ninth at 2.85. Even freshman Sidne Peters isn’t far behind with her 3.43 placing 14th.
“Ruby throws hard,” Skaggs said. “So that’s one thing you just have to be on time for and not chase things out of the zone, because she’s obviously a pitcher that can expect to get you out if you’re gonna chase out of her zone. And Lindsay brings a little bit more of movement with her pitches, so she’s the one that will mix change quite a bit and kind of come in and out. Being a lefty I feel like helps, because we see a majority righties throughout the year. So they both bring some different, they’re competitive. And so it’s just up to us to kind of be disciplined in our own zones and we’ll be fine.”
The UW staff kept Arizona hitters off-balance in Tucson. The Wildcats did quite a bit of chasing out of the zone. They got just 14 hits over the three games while their staff surrendered 29. They were outscored 24-7.
Arizona can look at its final game against UW for a blueprint on how to win. They used a two-run home run by Olivia DiNardo to score. From there, the pitching kept the Huskies in check.
“If we show up and we’re the better team that day, we’re gonna win,” Skaggs said. “So I think we’re fairly evenly matched teams, so it’s just a matter of who shows up and who gets the clutch hits and who can pitch and keep the other team to less runs.”
All nine teams are trying to stretch their stay in the tournament. It’s a good way to prepare for the NCAA postseason that will start next week. The biggest difference between the conference tournament and the NCAA tournament is the single-elimination format.
“I think we’re gonna have to manage our pitching accordingly,” said Arizona head coach Caitlin Lowe. “And just come out hot in every game. I think that’s when we’ve had our best games throughout the entire year is when we set the tone early and often.”
Like five of their fellow Pac-12 teams, Arizona doesn’t have to worry about its NCAA life, though. That’s a return to normal after two years of worrying about whether they would get in at all.
The Wildcats snuck into the tournament with an RPI of 45 and a 39-22 record in 2022. They ran off five straight wins to get to the Women’s College World Series. In 2023, an RPI of 47 and a 29-25 record weren’t enough to continue the streak that had lasted for three-and-a-half decades.
While Lowe said she doesn’t think the team compares itself to the other Arizona teams that came before, it’s safe to say that players come to Tucson expecting to go to the tournament every year. That’s a tradition built by those who came before. This year, Arizona’s freshmen and sophomores will get to know what it actually feels like to experience that tradition.
If Arizona wins its first game in the tournament, it will face the winner between No. 1 seed UCLA and either No. 8 Oregon State or No. 9 Arizona State. That game will take place on Friday, May 10 at 7:30 p.m. MST/PDT.