It’s officially the postseason so every game could be the last for the Arizona Wildcats (19-13, 10-8 Big 12). They take on the NAU Lumberjacks (26-7, 16-2 Big Sky) tonight at 6 p.m. MST in a rematch of a game won by the ‘Jacks in Flagstaff in the third week of November.
With just over 30 games now in the books for both teams, here’s a look at some numbers that determined how and why they ended in the Women’s Basketball Invitation Tournament, what might happen on Thursday night, and what happened last time the pair faced off.
Nov. 20, 2024
That’s the date that Arizona went to NAU and lost to the ‘Jacks. There were several important numbers on that day. Below are some of the most critical to the outcome.
92 The number of points the Wildcats gave up to the Lumberjacks. That’s a huge number for women’s college basketball. It’s even bigger for a team like Arizona which has traditionally been one of the better defensive teams in the country.
29 That’s the number of times NAU went to the free throw line. The Lumberjacks got 11 more attempts than the Wildcats, including going to the line nine times in the second quarter and 12 times in the fourth. They hit 22 of their shots from the stripe.
25 Arizona was whistled for a season-high 27 fouls against California on Nov. 27. Before that, the Wildcats’ season high was 25, which was set on Nov. 10 against UC San Diego and matched in this game against the ‘Jacks.
17 The winning margin for NAU. It wasn’t just that Arizona lost on the road to a solid team. The Lumberjacks ran away with it.
14 The number of minutes Breya Cunningham was on the floor before fouling out. The clock read 3:17 in the first quarter when she picked up her first foul.
She was dominating in early play, scoring seven points on 3 for 4 shooting and a free throw. She also had a rebound, a steal, and a block. She grabbed two more rebounds and made another free throw over the final minutes of the frame. Her second foul came at 9:04 in the second quarter, and she went to the bench until the 5:45 mark. Less than 90 seconds later, she had been whistled for the third time.
10 The number of 3-point shots made by the Lumberjacks was the main reason for both the margin of victory and NAU’s point total.
0 The number of minutes played by Jada Williams. She sat out the first of several games she has spent on the sidelines dealing with foot pain.
Ratings
Her Hoop Stats: The stats service has Arizona at No. 63 in its ratings system. NAU is No. 78. The Lumberjacks are the 51st-best team in the HHS offensive ratings, well above Arizona at No. 95. However, UA has a bigger advantage on the defensive side, ranking 40th compared to Northern Arizona at No. 166.
Massey Ratings: The Massey Ratings place Arizona at No. 46 and NAU at No. 89. The Wildcats are No. 64 on offense and No. 23 defensively. NAU is No. 44 offensively and No. 295 defensively.
NET Rating: Arizona is 58th in the NET. NAU is No. 94.
Projections and Probabilities
Her Hoop Stats: The service gives Arizona a 67.7 percent win probability at home. The Wildcats are given a +5.9 margin of victory. The point total is 148.3 with the Wildcats getting 77.1 points and the Lumberjacks 71.2.
Massey Ratings: Massey gives the Wildcats an 80 percent win probability at home. The most likely score is 77-66.