The Coyotes are among the teams that have demonstrated interest in acquiring Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on Monday’s 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link). With Arizona now sitting first in the Western Conference wild-card race and just two points back of the Winnipeg Jets for third in the Central Division, it appears GM Bill Armstrong is gearing up to shift out of rebuild mode and begin spending assets to acquire more veteran talent.
A 6-3-1 surge in their last ten games has the Flames still in the playoff hunt, but a report last month from Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic indicates it hasn’t changed the Flames’ plans of selling off most of their pending unrestricted free agents. The first in-season move to get a value pack for a pending free agent came last week, dealing defenseman Nikita Zadorov to the Canucks for a pair of draft picks. More recently, LeBrun indicated the Flames could look to move Hanifin with an extension in place after previously offering him an eight-year deal worth roughly $60MM – a $7.5MM cap hit – before talks ended due to the team’s early-season slide.
While teams are still calling on Hanifin’s defense partner, Chris Tanev, the former is the top trade chip the Flames have to offer from their blue line. His value among Calgary’s pending UFAs is eclipsed only by top-line center Elias Lindholm.
Through his first five seasons in Calgary, after they acquired him from the Hurricanes during the 2018 offseason, Hanifin notched 31 goals, 125 assists, 156 points, and a +33 rating in 359 games. That works out to 0.43 points per game, a mark he’s outpacing so far this year with five goals and 12 points in 24 contests. He’s averaging a career-high 22:53 and is on pace for an even-strength Corsi share above 50% for his ninth straight campaign. For now, his services come at a financial bargain, costing just $4.95MM against the cap – significantly under market value for a first-pair-caliber defenseman.
You’re likely not winning a championship with Hanifin as your number-one defenseman, but he has a track record of handling heavy minutes while still displaying two-way prowess. The Coyotes’ most significant weakness is far and away their blue line depth, and adding Hanifin to a growing group that’s seen strong performances from Sean Durzi and J.J. Moser this season could boost their playoff chances by a significant margin. MoneyPuck currently lists the Coyotes with 68.4% odds to make just their second postseason appearance since losing in the 2012 Western Conference Final to the Kings.
If Armstrong does move to acquire Hanifin, the 26-year-old would end up playing the role the Coyotes envisioned Mathew Dumba would hold this season. Signed to a one-year, $3.9MM contract late in the summer, Dumba has floundered in the desert, posting just four points in 22 games and a -8 rating, the worst among Arizona defenders. His ice time has steadily decreased since the beginning of the season, and he’ll soon be averaging below 20 minutes per game for the first time since the 2015-16 season.
Hanifin is also a left-handed shot, an area of need for the Coyotes. They currently have a surplus of right-shooting defensemen, which has forced players like Dumba and Troy Stecher to play on their off-side.
His acquisition cost won’t be cheap, especially if there’s an extension in place as part of the trade. The Coyotes have plenty of draft capital, though, owning a jaw-dropping ten second-round selections over the next three years. They’ve also retained all their first-round picks for the next three seasons. They also have a quickly-growing forward prospect pool, including 23-year-old Jan Jeník, who had 47 points in 51 games with AHL Tucson two seasons ago and reportedly sought trade options last summer.