Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Anaheim Ducks taking on the Chicago Blackhawks. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions
Anaheim Ducks vs Chicago Blackhawks
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting (2024–25: Anaheim 2–1–0 vs Chicago)
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Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Setting the Stage
The Ducks enter the night at 2–2–0 following a frustrating 4–1 home loss to Carolina. Despite the defeat, Leo Carlsson’s continued breakout remains a bright spot, with six points over his last three games. Anaheim’s offence has found life under Joel Quenneville, showing layers of creativity but struggling to score first. Case in point, they’ve conceded the opening goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Chicago returns home at 2–2–2 after dropping a 3–2 shootout to Vancouver. The Blackhawks’ top six continues to evolve, with Connor Bedard leading the way at a point-per-game pace and Tyler Bertuzzi providing secondary spark. However, blowing a 2–0 lead against a travel-weary opponent raised concerns about Chicago’s defensive composure late in games.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s offensive rhythm has improved dramatically from last season. Quenneville’s group is generating quality chances off controlled entries and net-front screens, highlighted by a strong 5v5 expected goals rate (xGF/60 near 4.0). Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier continue to drive play, while Carlsson’s vision adds another layer to the attack. However, the Ducks’ special teams remain uneven. They’ve struggled to convert on early power plays while allowing goals off broken coverage. Petr Mrazek might get the start, and he will look to bounce back from a poor performance in San Jose about a week ago. The Ducks have conceded the first goal in all four games they’ve played so far, so Anaheim’s focus will need to be sharper from puck drop.
Leo. Carlsson. Ducks need a jolt, and get a lightning strike from the young Swede on the rush. Extremely smart play by Killorn in the neutral zone to get the stretch pass, feed Leo in space.2-1 Carolina, 9:32 P2 #FlyTogether
— Zach Cavanagh (@zachcavsports.bsky.social) 2025-10-17T03:25:29.920Z
Chicago Blackhawks Storyline
The Blackhawks’ early-season inconsistency continues to mirror their rebuilding identity, competitive but fragile. Spencer Knight has been solid in net with a .915 save percentage but hasn’t received consistent help in front of him. Chicago’s defensive structure, especially in the second period of games, has been porous. They allowed two unanswered goals to Vancouver after building a strong lead. On offence, Bedard’s six points in six games underscore his steady star trajectory, while Ryan Donato’s power play marker against the Canucks showcased improved puck movement. Yet, their late-game energy dips remain a concern heading into a matchup with a faster Anaheim side.
We promise, this pass from Connor Bedard is NOT as easy as he made it look.
: /NHL_On_TNT & /StreamOnMax
https://www.hbomax.com/sports/nhl
— NHL (Bot) (@notnhl.bsky.social) 2025-10-16T04:05:31.993804Z
The Model and Prediction Process
We combine four independent views of a game to estimate win probability. First, our in-house probabilistic model simulates the matchup 10,000 times using variabls such as team strength, recent performance, and advanced 5-on-5 metrics (expected goals for/against, shot share). Second, we pull an external model (MoneyPuck). Third, we convert sportsbook moneylines into implied win probabilities (after removing the bookmaker’s margin). Fourth, we add a second public model built from Advanced Hockey Stats. As you might guess, each source has its own strengths. Moreover, we learn weights from past games to emphasize the sources that have been most accurate lately. The weighted probability is then used to simulate scorelines and produce a final win chance and fair odds. After the game, we automatically log the result and update our evaluation so the blend can keep improving over time.
NHL Prediction
Our simulated 10,000-run model gives Anaheim an 80% edge on internal metrics alone, but the blended, four-source calculation lands at Anaheim with 59.8% to Chicago at 40.2%. The underlying tilt comes from Anaheim’s superior 5v5 process. They have an xGF/60 of 4.0 versus Chicago’s 1.9, and a Corsi-share north of 63%. Quite impressive. The Ducks’ forecheck and zone pressure rate rank among the top ten in the league, while Chicago still leans heavily on goaltending to bail out turnovers. Expect Anaheim’s pace and shot quality to wear down the Blackhawks’ middle pairings over sixty minutes.
NHL Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (59.8% win probability).
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 2–1 (67%)
Prop Bets of the Night
We wrap up this NHL Prediction with two model-backed plays that align with Anaheim’s expected edge. First up is Leo Carlsson and the Over 0.5 Points (-130). Carlsson has points in three straight and drives primary shot assists on the Ducks’ top power play. Our simulation gives him a 64% probability to record at least one point tonight. We also are looking at Anaheim Team Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115). Across 10,000 simulations, Anaheim scored four or more in 57% of runs. Chicago’s defensive metrics and late-game fatigue trends both push this toward the over. The overlap between Anaheim’s puck control and Chicago’s penalty-kill struggles make both props strong correlation plays.
2025–26 Season Betting Record: 4–3 (+0.92 units)
Main Photo Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
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