The 2025-2026 NHL season is rapidly approaching. Training camps are starting soon, and it is time to start making some predictions for the season ahead. Leading up to the regular season, we will be predicting players’ points and other fantasy hockey-relevant statistics here at Last Word on Sports. Today, we begin with a core piece on the Anaheim Ducks.
Leo Carlsson’s Point Projection for 2025-26
The Ducks are heading into a new era, and much of the spotlight will be on third-year centre Leo Carlsson. After an impressive sophomore season, fans and fantasy hockey managers alike are wondering, what comes next? With coaching changes, new teammates, and Carlsson’s natural development curve, there’s reason to expect another step forward. To get there, we’ve combined traditional stats, advanced metrics, and player comparisons into one projection.
Setting the Stage
Leo Carlsson’s sophomore campaign gave Anaheim Ducks fans a glimpse of what the future could look like. The 2023 second-overall pick produced 20 goals and 45 points in 76 games despite limited ice time and a bottom-ranked power play. That combination of strong individual play and poor team environment makes Carlsson a fascinating case for projections. Furthermore, with Joel Quenneville behind the bench and Jay Woodcroft running the power play, the Ducks’ offensive structure and production should improve.
For fantasy managers, this is where the numbers get interesting. Carlsson already flashed a high shooting percentage and solid two-way awareness. The question is whether those numbers hold steady, negatively regress, or grow alongside his expected increase in minutes.
Usage is the Foundation
The first step in projecting production is ice time. Last season, Carlsson averaged just over 16 minutes per game, including 2:28 on the power play. With Quenneville’s history of leaning on his top centres, like Jonathan Toews, and Woodcroft’s proven record on special teams, a bump is likely. Therefore, we expect Carlsson to play about 17:30 a night in 2025-26. That includes close to three minutes on the power play.
This matters because more minutes create more raw opportunities. Even if his per-60 minute production stays the same, extra time on the ice drives his counting stats upward. For young players like Carlsson, opportunity is often the single biggest driver of year-to-year growth.
Shooting and Scoring Efficiency
Carlsson’s shooting profile is the second key factor. Last season, he scored 20 goals on 114 shots, good for a 17.5% shooting percentage. That number is well above the league average and hard to sustain over time. To stabilise the projection, we negatively regress his shooting percentage closer to 14–15%, which is more typical for young top-six centres with good shot quality.
Meanwhile, his ice time increase should bring his shot totals up to about 134. Combining volume and efficiency, the model forecasts 21 goals. That is essentially holding last year’s production while allowing for natural regression in conversion rate.
LOOK HOW LEO CARLSSON PICKS UP THIS PUCK ? pic.twitter.com/fQIbw91gQi
— NHL (@NHL) April 6, 2024
Playmakers and Linemates
Hockey is the ultimate team sport. Carlsson’s projections depend heavily on his wingers. Last season, he played significant minutes with Cutter Gauthier and Alex Killorn, a line that controlled scoring chances at just over 51% expected goals. Add Troy Terry to the mix on certain shifts, and Carlsson is surrounded by playmakers.
Because of that environment, his assist totals should climb. Last year, he finished with 25 helpers. This year coming, with similar linemates and improved finishing around him, we project 30 assists. It is a modest increase, but it reflects both better team scoring rates and Carlsson’s continued development as a distributor.
Ridiculous pass from Leo Carlsson. pic.twitter.com/dVEkjeqNir
— Félix Sicard (@Felix_Sicard) October 3, 2024
Power Play Opportunity
Special teams are where projections often swing. The Ducks’ power play was dreadful in 2024-25, ranking last in the league at just 11.8%. Despite that, Carlsson still managed seven points with the man advantage.
With Woodcroft expected to improve puck movement and zone entries, Anaheim’s power play should rebound to at least 15–16%. Combine that with Carlsson’s projected increase to nearly three minutes per game on the power play, and his output rises to around 11 power-play points. Even on a below-average unit, extra touches and more efficient structure should boost his totals.
The Other Stats
The true hockey nerds know that it is more than just goals and assists. Therefore, it is worth projecting the peripheral categories as well. Carlsson is unlikely to deliver heavy physical stats, but he should provide enough to matter and acknowledge.
- Faceoffs: He won 302 last season at 41.4%. Centres often improve with age, so projecting him around 355 wins at 43% is reasonable.
- Hits and Blocks: Not his calling card, but expect about 29 hits and 43 blocks, a small uptick with more minutes.
- Penalty Minutes: Carlsson isn’t overly physical or undisciplined, so he’ll likely stay in the 15–17 PIM range.
- Plus/Minus: Anaheim was a poor team last season, yet Carlsson finished at +6. With roster improvements and better coaching, we estimate +7 this year.
- Shorthanded Points: A bonus category — he notched two last season. With limited penalty-killing time, expect one
Final Projection: Leo Carlsson Point Projection
We projected Leo Carlsson’s 2025-26 season by blending last year’s usage and production rates with expected changes in ice time, shooting regression, power-play improvement, and age-based growth. To capture uncertainty, we ran a 10,000-season Monte Carlo simulation varying inputs like shooting percentage, PP efficiency, and games played. Blending usage, regression analysis, power-play context, and age-based growth curves, we arrive at a well-rounded forecast. In other words, this approach balances rigour and realism, giving readers a clear picture of Carlsson’s likely production and his possible upside
Leo Carlsson Point Projection (80 GP, 2025-26):
| Stat | 2024-25 Actual | 2025-26 Projection (Median) | 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 20 | 21 | 16 – 27 |
| Assists | 25 | 30 | 23 – 36 |
| Points | 45 | 51 | 40 – 62 |
| Plus/Minus | +6 | +7 | -3 – +15 |
| Power-Play Points | 7 | 11 | 6 – 15 |
| Short-Handed Points | 2 | 1 | 0 – 2 |
| Shots on Goal | 114 | 134 | 110 – 156 |
| Faceoffs Won | 302 | 355 | 310 – 395 |
| Hits | 24 | 29 | 18 – 40 |
| Blocks | 36 | 43 | 30 – 55 |
| Penalty Minutes | 14 | 17 | 10 – 24 |
| Average TOI | 16:14 | 17:30 | 16:45 – 18:15 |
The Last Word
Projecting Carlsson is about balancing excitement with realism. His rookie and sophomore seasons showed high-end skill, but also numbers inflated by shooting efficiency. However, when you factor in more minutes, better linemates, and improved special teams, the picture is clear. Carlsson should comfortably pass 50 points while providing steady value across secondary categories.
For fantasy managers, that makes him one of the most intriguing breakout candidates in the league. If Anaheim’s power play clicks faster than expected, his ceiling goes even higher.
Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
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