Ten picks, but the big question is how many will sign?
Luke Dotson, LHP, Mississippi State
Dotson has some signability concerns, as he’s a draft-eligible sophomore. However, those concerns may be mitigated somewhat by the fact that he’s also been in the process of transferring to Texas. Doubtless the team has better intel on such things. He’s 6’4”, 210, and throws a fastball in the mid 90s which he can place at the top of the zone, a changeup, and a curveball in the high 70s that plays well off the fastball. He’s pitched exclusively in relief at Mississippi State, and struck out 13.5 per nine innings in his college career thus far. He profiles as a solid lefty reliever who is, if he signs, will be a solid bullpen piece soon and will be a quick mover. My prediction is that his signability comes down to whether or not he thinks he has a potential opportunity to be a weekend starter at Texas. If he does, it makes sense to go that route. If he’s locked into the bullpen, it’s hard to think that his stock would be any higher, but he’ll probably still cost somewhere in the $500-700k range to sign.
Montiel is a big lefty who had a couple rough years at Tulane before turning into a bullpen ace there this year. He worked 43.1 innings, struck out 54, and walked 14. He throws from a low three-quarters slot and looks like he would be a difficult task for a lefty. He also made some extremely athletic plays off the mound, as can be seen here. He’s another high upside reliever pick, and I’m curious to hear what Ian Rebhan says about him, as I think they may try to turn him into a starter, like they have done with Spencer Giesting.
Alex Galvan, RHP, Central Florida
Galvan is another big strikeout guy who fanned 11.3 per nine in his college career, which was split between Louisville and Central Florida. He’s 6’6”, 240, and played basketball in high school in addition to baseball. In fact, it’s easier to find high school basketball highlights than it is college baseball highlights. The Diamondbacks are getting a good all-around athlete who should get excellent extension on his pitches.
Blake Fields, OF, The First Academy (Orlando, FL)
The first academy may have been in Athens, but The First Academy is in Orlando, apparently. And Blake Fields is an athletic outfielder from there who has good projectability (6’, 200) but hasn’t put it into the full package. The hope is that he becomes a fast, strong-armed outfielder with some pop. Right now, he’s only one of those things. He’s committed to Houston, and might well go there, but that’s kind of up in the air.
Hayden Murphy, RHP, Auburn
Murphy is a big upside pick. He’s 6’4”, 200, and entered the season as an option for a weekend rotation spot on a talented Auburn roster. He wound up in the bullpen and struggled before he missed much of the season due to an apparent injury. That followed a 2024 where he struggled with bad BABIP luck. He’s one of the few players that have gotten substantially better results in summer ball. In almost as many innings as he’s had in college, he’s pitched to a 1.042 WHIP, striking out 11.9 per nine.
Collin Rothermel, RHP, Jacksonville University (FL)
Rothermel is a little undersized at 6’1”, 170, but has been durable through his college career, which has spanned Kansas State and Nova Southeastern in addition to Jacksonville. That many of his numbers improved when moving from Division II to Division I is a good sign. His fastball looks good. I’d assume there’s a good bit of reliever risk here, but this is another solid second half of the draft pick that could turn into something, but even if not, someone has to make the starts in A-ball just as they do in the big leagues.
Joel Sarver, RHP, UNC Charlotte
Sarver had an excellent season at UNC Charlotte after struggling mightily in his first two. He’s another high strikeout reliever.
Raul Garayzar, RHP, Arizona
Garayzar was a swingman for the Wildcats this year, making eight starts and working deep into games towards the end of the season. His best outing came against West Virginia, where he threw six shutout innings against a team that was, at the time, expected to host a regional. This is a potential steal of a pick.
Jacob Parker, OF, Purvis, MS
Parker is the less highly-regarded twin of JoJo Parker, who went to the Blue Jays in the first round. He was available in the 19th round not because of talent, but because he’s highly unlikely to sign. If he was regarded as signable, he would probably have gone in the second or third round. He’s a left-handed hitter with tremendous power, but with some swing-and-miss concerns. At the combine, he was the first batter to top 110 MPH exit velocity, and he did so with a swing that looked relatively easy, albeit with a large toe tap that some might not like. He’s likely ticketed to first base eventually, but there’s a chance of a corner outfield spot or third base.
Still, out of all of the picks, this is the one that I can say with the greatest confidence will not sign, unless it’s the next guy.
Ethin Bingaman, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Bingaman is another long shot to sign. He’s coming out of the same Corona program that put Seth Hernandez and Billy Carlson in the top-ten picks, and saw Brady Ebel selected 32nd overall. A two-way player, he was announced as a pitcher, so that’s likely how the Diamondbacks see him. He has a fastball that hits 95 and pairs that with a curveball and occasional changeup.
Who Will Sign?
All the college seniors will sign. That leaves Dotson, Fields, Parker, and Bingaman. If the Diamondbacks saved some from the top ten rounds, they may be able to sign one of the group, but I think three go unsigned. As Ian Rebhan said, the goal would be to sign everyone, but sometimes that just doesn’t work out.
Summary
While looking at the players picked may lead people to think that the Diamondbacks were focused on pitching, they took the best players they saw available. That happened to include a lot of pitchers. Those pitchers have upside; according to Rebhan, they all have potential starter upside. While I’ll not go that far, it does show how the organization views these guys.
I think there will be at least one contributor out of this group, probably in the bullpen. But considering that no picks later than the 11th round have reached the big leagues since Kevin Ginkel in 2016, that’s something. I particularly like the Dotson pick and the Garayzar pick, and if they somehow sign Parker, they arguably got the steal of the draft.
(This will be updated with James’s comments at a later point.)