His postseason breakthrough continues this season.
Introduction: Ketel Marte’s season review.
An unexpected question struck me – should I sign-up for Marte’s season review? I hesitated. I wasn’t sure why. But I knew to trust my gut. Justin did a great job on the 2023 season review, so my decision ended well!
Now, two months into the season, what are my perspectives on Ketel Marte?
Ketel Marte Belongs at Second Base.
A year prior to the move, in February of 2018, this AZ Snake Pit article looked at possible acquisitions of a center fielder. It narrowed the field from twelve to four candidates. Instead of those candidates, the Diamondbacks acquired center fielder Jarrod Dyson. However, AJ Pollock was the primary center fielder (109 games). Pollock’s 108 OPS+ was much better than Dyson’s 45 OPS+. Pollock became a free agent after that season.
In December of 2018 Jim McLennan considered whether in 2019 the Diamondbacks should move Marte to center field. He mentioned the possibility that that it might have been a red herring to improve the team’s bargaining position.
The Diamondbacks started to consider the possible move as follows:
“We think he’s probably the best athlete on the team. He’s told us that he’s very confident that he can do it [play center field]. I think those are two good starting points.” — Mike Hazen, December 2018
Then it happened. In the 2019 season Ketel Marte played 96 games in center field. It was unwise for the following reasons:
- Although Ketel Marte’s defense in CF was good (4 DRS in 687.2 innings), Jarrod Dyson’s defense in CF was better (6 DRS in 646.2 innings). Instead of moving Dyson around the outfield, preferable would have been to keep him in CF and keep Marte at second base.
- Ketel Marte earned an impressive 6.6 offensive bWAR. However, Ketel Marte could have reached the same number of plate appearances playing exclusively at second base.
Let’s fast forward to March 2023. When he moved back to second base, this AZ Snake Pit article predicted that after playing in the outfield, his defense at second base would be between zero and 2 DRS (much less than his previous greatness at second base). In 2023, Ketel Marte’s actual DRS at second base was +2, at the upper end of the prediction.
“Based on the two graphs, [in 2023] Ketel Marte’s infield defense DRS could improve to between zero DRS and two DRS.” — Makakilo, March 2023
In the first two months of 2024, Ketel Marte’s defense at second base ranked among the best in the Majors. His 7 DRS ranked second in the Majors (behind Marcus Semien). His 6 OAA ranked third in the Majors.
How Does Ketel Marte compare to Marcus Semien.
“In fact, if he can just keep improving his defense little by little, he has an outside shot at turning into Marcus Semien, who just came third in the AL MVP with a nearly identical offensive profile:…” — chronicles_of_the_desert, comment to Justin’s 2023 season review
Did defensive prowess explain the difference between Ketel Marte not being an All-Star and Marcus Semien finishing third in the voting for the AL MVP?
One reason to answer affirmative is that Marcus Semien was a Gold Glove finalist while Ketel Marte was not a finalist.
Another reason to answer affirmative is that in 2023, despite Marcus Semien winning a silver slugger award, a quick comparison shows Ketel Marte (purple numbers) as likely the better batter:
2023 Season, 10 BBE minimum. Data from Baseball Savant.
As an optimist, instead of lamenting the difference my thought is that after a reasonable off-season improvement by Ketel Marte, the two could be ranked as equals. One reason that equality could happen is that they are closely ranked. In January, MLB Now’s Top 10 Second Basemen Right Now ranked Marcus Semien as the third best second baseman in baseball and Ketel Marte as the fifth best second baseman in baseball.
In the first two months of 2024, Ketel Marte’s batting was better than Marcus Semien. Marte’s defense at second base ranked second in DRS and third in OAA (behind Semien). Details are shown in the following table:
First 48 games of the 2024 season. Data from Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, and The Fielding Bible.
At the current pace, Ketel Marte is on-pace to win a Silver Slugger. Adding an explanation point is that Ketel Marte had a 21-game hitting streak from 28 April to 22 May.
How does recent batting compare to his All-Star 2019, and his impressive 2021?
The 2019, 2021, and 2023 season reviews were generous with their praise of his performance. Ketel Marte had three outstanding seasons!
Despite his batting improvement in 2023, he fell short of 2019 and 2021. However, there were two signs that 2024 could be a career-best season.
- In 2023, his team-leading average exit velocity was a strong indication that he could perform better next season.
- His extraordinary performance (and hitting streak) in the postseason were a glimpse of his highest level of performance.
This season’s batting is on-pace to be a career-best season. Two statistics best show the comparison:
- 2019 149 OPS+, 7.2% Barrels/PA.
- 2021 143 OPS+, 6.7% Barrels/PA.
- 2023 128 OPS+, 5.7% Barrels/PA.
- 2024 142 OPS+, 7.9% Barrels/PA (through 21 May).
He showed his full potential in the 2023 post-season.
Although Ketel Marte’s basic offensive statistics ranked high during the regular season (2023), in the postseason he ranked #1 among the Diamondbacks. He won the MVP award for the NLCS series. He extended his postseason hitting streak, which is the longest ever in the post season. Details are in the following table.
2023 Season, 10 BBE events minimum. Data from Baseball Savant.
In 2023, Ketel Marte earned one Outs-Above-Average (OAA) and two Defensive-Runs-Saved (DRS). These metrics were above average. Looking at combined offense and defense, it is reasonable to rank Ketel Marte as the second-best Diamondback.
Ketel Marte is the last of the four musketeers playing for the Diamondbacks.
In 2021, the four musketeers were young and talented Diamondbacks; most were capable of playing multiple positions. They were Daulton Varsho, Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, and Carson Kelly. This season, only Ketel Marte will be playing for the Diamondbacks.
“Musketeers are cool! Four musketeers will swashbuckle into the Diamondbacks’ future.” — Makakilo, 2021
Summary.
Ketel Marte belongs at second base. In the first two months of 2024, Ketel Marte’s defense at second base ranked among the best in the Majors.
This season’s batting is on-pace to be a career-best season.
In the first two months of 2024, Ketel Marte’s batting was better than Marcus Semien. Marte’s defense at second base ranked second in DRS and third in OAA (behind Semien).
Ketel Marte is the last of the four musketeers playing for the Diamondbacks.