We’re almost a quarter of the way through the season.
Let’s start with the poll above. I’d suggest you vote now, then you can read the rest of the article, and if you feel your opinion has been changed, then you can explain what changed and why in the comments. All good? Now, proceed…
Overall record
The D-backs come into today with a record of 20-18. That win percentage would be a record of 85-77 for the full season, probably not be enough to make the post-season. But it is also two games better than the Diamondbacks were at the same point last year. They were only 18-20, and would not get back above .500 for more than two months, until July 12th. That they reached 89 wins at all is due almost entirely to the strong results in July and August, where Arizona went 35-17, before dropping back to .500 in September, and missing the playoffs by… Well, let’s not rehash the coroner’s report, shall we? But it certainly proved wrong all those proclaiming “season over”, when the team was 25-32 at the end of May.
It would be questionable to rely on the team being able to put together such a dominant spell over 120 games to come. Pessimists would point to the fact the D-backs have barely outscored the opposition, with a run-differential of just +5. Optimists would counter with the fact they’ve been without their MVP for the majority of the time, and have also lost both halves of their double-barrelled closer action to the injured list. They also have endured the second-toughest schedule in the major leagues to this point. “Yes,” counter the doomers. “And the team have barely even seen anyone in the bear-pit which is the NL West. It’s not going to get easier.”
Hitting
It was thought that the D-backs would probably end up taking a step back at the plate, after a record-setting season where the team led the majors in runs, more than forty better than anyone else. They have… though perhaps to a smaller degree than you’d think. The runs per game have declined from 5.47 to 5.03. But the OPS+ is only fractionally lower, having lost just three clicks, from 115 to 112. There’s reason to think the offense should regress in a positive fashion, to score more runs. Because their performance with runners in scoring position has been a lot worse this year:
2024: .285/.365/.487 = .852 OPS (#1 in MLB)
2025: .234/.315/.380 = .695 OPS (#21 in MLB)
A chunk of that may simply be luck. Our BABIP with RISP has dropped fifty points from .304 to .254. The latter figure is ahead only of three teams, so if that just headed back to the MLB average in the situation (.295), it would mean more D-back hits with RISP, and consequently more runs. Now, that regression isn’t guaranteed. It could be the low BABIP is due to a bad approach at the plate, leading to fewer line-drives (those are the engine which drive BABIP). Arizona does rank only 21st for line-drive rate, though is 7th in average exit velocity. I guess that means a lot of hard-hit ground balls. I also note that D-backs is showing excellent plate discipline. A 10.4% BB rate is second in the majors and up from 9.1% last year.
Pitching
This was expected to be a strength of the team coming in, with a rotation which, on paper, was the envy of most teams that hadn’t spent billions on free agents over the past couple of off-seasons. It hasn’t quite worked out that way. But it has improved, with the team’s ERA+ improving from and ERA+ of 91, to a figure of 96. Despite the obvious and known issues, in both the rotation and bullpen, Arizona’s ERA is still 0.2 runs lower than the total from last year. Their fielding independent ERA (FIP), however, has increased from 4.09 to 4.38, although the xFIP (FIP using “normal” home-run rate) has dropped. So, you pay your money and you take your choice of metrics.
The rotation is particularly improved – at least in terms of raw ERA. For our starting pitchers, it’s more than half a run better, dropping from 4.79 to 4.22. But again, the FIP has headed in the other direction, and a BABIP reduction of forty points does suggest the improvement may be somewhat illusory. However, they have also been giving up homers at a higher rate, and regression there will help. In the bullpen, things have got worse by both ERA and FIP: the former has increased from 4.41 to 4.78, the 25th-best figure, with the long ball a problem for them as well. But the narrative that Mike Hazen can’t build bullpens does not appear to be going away anytime soon.
Defense and base-running
The former has been a particular area of concern, with the Diamondbacks’ 22 errors currently =8th most. That’s quite a contrast to last season, when the team committed the fewest errors of any team. It may be a factor in the Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved metric, where Arizona has gone from +17 to a below-average figure of -2 so far. In terms of both Outs and Runs Above Average, as determined by Statcast, the team are on pace for only about half the number from last year. But Fangraphs own Def figure has Arizona looking likely to improve on 2024. Defensive metrics appear to be like cats. It’d be nice if they all went in the same direction, but I wouldn’t rely on it.
The team have been more active on the base-paths. They are 31-8 in stolen base attempts, which would prorate to 132-34. Last year, they were 119-30, so they are both trying it more often, and enjoying greater success. But who had Geraldo Perdomo (a perfect 9-0) and Josh Naylor (6-2) as the two players with most stolen-bases to date? They have been taking the extra bases at exactly the same rate (46%) as in 2024. However, the number of TOOTBLANs is up. I note that the percentage of base-runners who eventually score has dropped a couple of points. But this may be related to the lack of hits with RISP, more than poor base-running.
Conclusion
Jack did a similar analysis a week ago, asking whether the glass was half-full or half-empty. Of course, there’s reason to come to both conclusions, and the answer on which you decide probably says more about you than anything. Here, we have known optimists and known pessimists, and that’s fine. If we all agreed on everything, it’d be kinda dull! He concluded, “We’ll just have to wait and see how it turns out. That’s why they play the games,” and it’s impossible to argue with that. It’s not the 39 games played which will determine the outcome of the season: it’s what happens during the 123 remaining ones.
There’s a tendency for fans to be thoroughly reactive. Win a series, and the team are an unstoppable force, destined for the World Series. Lose one, and it’s “season over” time. The reality is, as always, somewhere in the middle. The D-backs are neither as terrible as that bad loss, nor as great as that awesome victory. Both are going to occur, in large quantities, over the course of the season. We would all do well to remember the words of the great baseball color commentator, Rudyard Kipling:
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;