The odds were not in their favor
There was a small – very small – chance that the D-backs would pick first in the MLB draft next year. It used to be, teams used to pick strictly in order of their record the previous season. But that was considered to be an encouragement to tank repeatedly, and since the end of 2022, there has been a lottery carried out, with a franchise’s chance of getting the #1 pick merely dependent on their record. This becomes a percentage shot, with even the Diamondbacks, who missed out on the post-season by the narrowest of margins, having a chance at the first overall shot. Admittedly, this year, the chance was somewhere between slim and none: just under three-tenths of one percent.
The lottery ticket in question did not pay out. Instead, it went to the Washington Nationals, who came in with the fourth-best odds, at 10.2 %. The D-backs will instead pick in their expected slot, which is eighteenth in the first round. That’s the same spot where they were in the 2020 draft, when they selected Bryce Jarvis. To find the best player from the June draft who have gone in that spot, you have to go back to 1974, when Willie Wilson was picked by the Royals. He ended up with a 19-year career including two All-Star Games. More recently, the eighteenth slot has also seen players like Corey Seager, Sonny Gray and R.A. Dickey get selected.
The draft will take place during the All-Star break next year, and the D-backs may have an additional early pick, depending on what happens with Christian Walker. Because they made him a qualifying offer, they will be eligible for compensation if he signs elsewhere: the nature of the comp pick depends on the contract. They’ll also currently have a competitive balance pick, which next year will come after the conclusion of the second round. However, it’s worth noting that these those picks can actually be traded to another team.