TODAY: Cease is the Astros’ “main target,” a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
JULY 29: The Astros have Padres right-hander Dylan Cease atop their deadline wish list, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Houston is also known to be looking for a bat and the report lists Willi Castro of the Twins, Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks as names the Astros are considering. MLBTR covered Houston’s interested in Castro earlier this week.
The Houston rotation has had a rough go in terms of health this year. They started the season with Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Cristian Javier on the injured list due to surgeries in previous years. They’re all still on the shelf. Since the start of the season, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have required Tommy John surgery, putting them out for the rest of the year. Spencer Arrighetti suffered a fractured thumb in a freak accident, getting hit during batting practice, and has been out for almost three months now. In the past two weeks, Lance McCullers Jr. hit the IL with a blister and Brandon Walter was sidelined by elbow inflammation.
They still have a strong one-two punch atop the rotation with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown but things get dicey after that. Currently, Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto and Jason Alexander are filling in. The Astros will naturally want to add some arms and push those guys down the depth chart. It’s possible they could get some guys off the IL in the coming months, but it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on that.
Cease has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Since getting promoted in 2019, he hasn’t gone on the injured list, apart from a two-day stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has made at least 32 starts in each full season since. He’s already up to 22 this year.
That reliability would certainly be attractive to the Astros amid all the injuries, though the quality has often been quite strong as well, as Cease has regularly struck out roughly 30% of batters faced. His earned run average has oscillated over the years thanks to some wobbles in his batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home run rate. His advanced metrics have held more steady. For his career, he has a 3.69 FIP and 3.82. In a full season, he’s never had a SIERA higher than 4.10 or a FIP higher than 3.72.
This year’s 4.79 ERA in on the high side, though at least part of that seems to be beyond Cease’s control. His .323 BABIP, 68.5% strand rate and 13.3% homer to fly ball rate are all to the unfortunate side. His 3.64 FIP and 3.37 SIERA suggest he’s largely been the same guy as in previous seasons. His ERA is also inflated a bit by a nine-run shellacking in his third start of the year.
Though Cease makes plenty of sense for the Astros on the field, there are other matters to consider. He is making $13.75MM this year, which leaves about $4.5MM left to be paid out. The Astros have clearly tried to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, dumping money in the offseason by trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. RosterResource currently pegs the club’s CBT number at $236MM, just $5MM from the base threshold of the tax. That’s just an estimate and it might be off by a few million in either direction.
Perhaps the Astros can add Cease and stay under the line but they also want to add a bat, which could make it tricky. On the other hand, the report from The Athletic suggests that owner Jim Crane likes star players and might be willing to cross the line in order to get someone like Cease. He was reportedly willing to cross the line in the offseason in order to re-sign Alex Bregman, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.
The Astros will also have to offer the Padres something they would like. The Friars aren’t selling in the commonly understood sense. Their plan with dealing Cease is to perhaps save some money, add a left fielder or a catcher, or prospects, or some combination of those goals. They could then use either the prospects or the saved money to acquire another starting pitching to replace Cease.
Houston doesn’t have a strong farm system, so perhaps the prospect part will be hard for them to pull off, though they could help out in some of the other areas. Catcher Victor Caratini is having a good year, though Yainer Diaz is struggling, so perhaps the Astros wouldn’t want to part with Caratini. Though if they did, Caratini is making $6MM this year, so flipping him would give the Astros some extra CBT space.
In the outfield, the Astros are currently without Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez. Their current mix includes Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, Jose Altuve, Jacob Melton, Cooper Hummel and Chas McCormick. Houston’s not giving a ton of playing time to McCormick, who has some decent seasons on his track record. However, he hasn’t been good for a couple of years now, so the Padres probably don’t have too much interest. Trammell has been hitting well lately but while striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. Hummel has been DFA fodder all year. Altuve and Smith aren’t going anywhere. Melton might be hard to pry loose because he hits left-handed, something the Astros lack, and is covering center field with Meyers out.
The report from The Athletic points out that the Astros traded three notable prospects to get a rental pitcher at last year’s deadline, flipping Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner to the Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. Perhaps they could do so again, though it’s unclear if they have the farm system to do it.
If they have some guys the Padres like, it’s theoretically possible that the Friars could then use those guys to upgrade elsewhere. A sequence of events like this helped them land Cease in the first place. They traded Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe. They then quickly put Thorpe in a package to send to the White Sox to get Cease. Perhaps the Astros can make it work but they will have competition. Cease has also been connected to the Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
As for the hitters, the Astros have also suffered a number of injuries to the lineup. As mentioned, Alvarez and Meyers are on the shelf, as well as shortstop Jeremy Peña, third baseman Isaac Paredes and others. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the club would love to get a lefty bat, ideally one who could play the infield and/or left field. Players like Altuve, Mauricio Dubón and Zack Short have some defensive versatility, giving the Astros a bit of flexibility in what kind of bat they add.
Sánchez has been a roughly league average bat in his time with the Marlins. He has a .243/.310/.425 career batting line and a wRC+ of exactly 100. He is making $4.5MM this year, which leaves about $1.5MM left to be paid out. He can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons. He’s been far better against righties in his career, which could appeal to Houston. He has a .179/.228/.287 slash against southpaws but a .258/.330/.459 line otherwise. The rebuilding Marlins likely aren’t clinging too tightly to him.
McCarthy has been good in the past but not this year. He slashed .285/.349/.400 for a 110 wRC+ in 2024, also adding 25 steals and quality defense. This year, he has a brutal .158/.232/.277 line and was sent to the minors for a few months. He did hit well in Triple-A, slashing .314/.401/.440, so perhaps the Astros see a path to getting him back on track. He still hasn’t qualified for arbitration and is being paid around the league minimum, which would be attractive for the Astros.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images