Team batting of .315 wOBA is the line of no return.
Kevin Seitzer was the Diamondbacks hitting coach in 2007. He lasted half a season – he was replaced in July. Although I did not find batting wOBA for his tenure, I estimated it at .314. His coaching journey took him to the Braves. He was the Braves pitching coach from 2015 through 2024. That’s a long time!
It wasn’t until his third season with the Braves that the team wOBA broke above .315. That’s a meaningful number. The Braves’ wOBA stayed above .315 until the 2024 season when it fell to .315. Kevin Seitzer did not return to his position. Perhaps for many batting coaches, wOBA of .315 is the line of no return.
Joe Mather is the Diamondbacks hitting coach.
After two seasons (2020 and 2021) with wOBA below .315, Joe Mather was hired as the Diamondbacks hitting coach. It took him two seasons to raise team wOBA above .315.
In the last two seasons, Diamondbacks batters had excellent wOBAs (.337 in 2024 and .349 in 2025 through 17 April).
What happened to the Rockies?
First, let’s look at their team wOBA with notes that add meaning (see table).
Rockies Batters. Data from Baseball Savant and SB Nation.
The elephant in the room is a clear insight: After the Rockies rebuilt their playing surfaces (Coors Field), their batters’ wOBA fell (with the caveat that correlation is not causation). My insight is that hiring and firing batting coaches did not raise the Rockies’ wOBA.
In October 2024, one of the Rockies’ two assistant-hitting-coaches left with no replacement. Two thoughts.
- My work experience is that when that type of action happens, another person starts wearing two hats. The person wearing two hats often protects himself from the consequences of tasks that stop being executed by saying it will take time to sort it out. That’s good politics, but the reality is that the organization’s performance suffers. In this case, it’s likely that some batters did not receive coaching that would have improved their performance.
- That action was penny wise and pound foolish because players are paid a minimum of $750,000 per year while an internet article made me think (perhaps wrongly) that the Rockies’ assistant batting coaches are paid about $61,000 per year.
Before this season, the Rockies did not make significant off-season moves to improve team. See this offseason review.
On March 22, the Rockies traded away outfielder Nolan Jones This season he increased hard-hit percentage from 44.4% to 59.3%. His hard-hit percentage is now at the 95th percentile. His strikeout percentage was little changed while his walk percentage increased from 12.1% to 15.7%. His expected wOBA increased from .287 to .302. In summary, they traded away an excellent batter with potential to be a great batter.
Injuries impacted the Rockies. As of 20 April, Injured list salary was $42 Million, retained salary $5 Million, active roster salary $76 Million. $76 Million active roster salary is low.
I wonder whether batting coaches ignored two important batters. The only two Rockies batters with long term financial commitments are Ezequiel Tovar through 2030 and Ryan McMahon through 2027. In games through 17 April, Tovars’ wOBA fell from .324 to .251, and Ryan McMahon’s wOBA fell from .315 to .293. These two batters are the core for the future.
The Rockies scored zero runs in a 3-game series with the Padres. The Padres are a much better team, so that is no great surprise. Nevertheless, those shutouts may have been an embarrassment. Perhaps the team owners needed to find someone to take the blame to reduce their embarrassment
The Rockies fired batting coach Hensley Meulens.
“It’s an unusual move, as coaching changes don’t usually happen so early in a season.” —Darragh McDonald, MLBTR
Although it may have been a mistake to fire a hitting coach so early in the season, there were many factors (beyond wins and loesses) that might have led to them firing their hitting coach.
Clint Hurdle was named the new batting coach. Although during his career he was a batting coach, it appears he has not done that job since 2010. Ideas about batting excellence change. Technology advances. After 15 years, it’s unlikely he has the knowledge needed to be effective. Also, he is about to turn 68 years old. Does he have the energy required to be an effective batting coach?
Looking Ahead for the Rockies.
The FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projection is that the Rockies increase their runs scored per game from the current 2.89 R/G to 4.85 R/G. That 50% improvement is unlikely, no matter how well Clint Hurdle coaches. Therefore, my view is the Rockies will win fewer than the 59 projected wins.
My view is that the Rockies will finish the season with the least wins in the league. Jim Bowden of the Athletic has a slightly different view that by the All-Star break the White Sox will be the worst team.
Summary.
When a team’s wOBA is .315 or lower, sometimes the batting coaches are replaced.
There are many reasons to argue against the idea that better batting coaches could improve the Rockies batting:
- Coors playing surfaces were rebuilt.
- The Rockies did not replace an assistant batting coach.
- The Rockies did not make significant offseason moves to improve the team.
- The Rockies traded away a potentially great batter.
- The Rockies’ batting coaches may have not helped their core players.
There are reasons to think the Rockies batters will not improve with Clint Hurdle as batting coach:
- Clint Hurdle has not been a batting coach for 15 years.
- Clint Hurdle is about to turn 68 years old.
- The Rockies would need to improve batting by 50% (very unlikely) to reach the 59 wins projected by FanGraphs.