TL;DR: Early season trends continue as mental defensive miscues, uneven bullpen performance, and lack of late game offense overrides good starting pitching.
In case you went to bed at a reasonable hour or gave up in disgust after a seven run seventh inning rally by the Cubs, you may be pleasantly surprised to see the D-Backs miraculously walked off the game on a Randal Grichuk single in extra innings last night. I can hardly believe it myself and I was Facetiming with my parents for extra emotional support at the time. Tim wrapped up all the craziness so you didn’t have to watch and is worth the read if for no other reason than he deserves it after having to recap all that wackiness. You would also be forgiven for not realizing that there was a day game after such a late, chaotic, and cathartic victory. Based on some of the body language of the D-Backs players, I think they were a little surprised as well honestly.
One person who was primed and ready to play? Ketel Marte. He has brought the incredible postseason run right into the regular season and continuing to demonstrate exactly why the D-Backs rewarded him with a five-year contract extension back in March of 2022. At the moment, that contract looks like an absolute steal – especially after he turned on the first pitch of the game from Jordan Wicks for an extremely quick 1-0 D-Backs lead. Corbin Carroll, still looking for some rhythm early, took a glancing blow off of his batting armor and then advanced to third on a wild pitch and stolen base for another early scoring opportunity for the red-hot Christian Walker. But, as would become a theme for the game, and the series as a whole, the D-Backs squandered the opportunity with a strikeout and weak groundout from Walker and Eugenio Suarez respectively to strand Carroll at third.
The D-Backs would end the day with an ugly 1-for-11 performance with runners in scoring position. For the series, they managed an impressive (in the worst way) 5-for-35 in such situations as the recent inability of the offense to cash in on opportunities came back to bite them throughout a very winnable series. Coming into play today, the D-Backs were actually performing well for the season with a .304/.408/.482 slash line with RISP even after the last two games, but it is one of several weaknesses they will need to address if they hope to contend again this year.
Thankfully, one area of the roster that has been surprisingly strong in the early going has been the starting rotation – or more specifically – two-fifths of the starting rotation. Through the first three turns of the rotation, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen have picked up exactly where they left off in the postseason. Brandon Pfaadt however, after acting as one of the key leaders in their remarkable postseason run last year has scuffled to a 6.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through his first three starts. To this point, he looked much more like the inconsistent youngster we saw in the regular season last year than the budding ace that emerged in the postseason. His fourth start showed that postseason may not have been a fluke after all.
After consecutive extra-innings games wherein both bullpens were heavily taxed, Pfaadt’s biggest priority had to be effective length and he delivered. He gutted through seven innings with only a handful of mistakes faulting an otherwise excellent outing. One of those blemishes came in the fifth when the first of the three-headed issues facing the team arose: defense. Pfaadt induced a weak chopper from Nico Hoerner that Suarez quickly corralled, but slipped out during the transfer to allow Hoerner to reach on the first of two Suarez errors in the game. I suspect that the error affected Pfaadt’s mentality as he then allowed consecutive run-scoring singles to Mike Tauchman and Yan Gomes to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead. He buckled back down to induce a double play and long flyout, but the damage had been down. The final blemish on Pfaadt’s outing came in his final inning when he allowed a solo home run to hometown boy and D-Backs nemesis Cody Bellinger for a 3-2 Cubs lead.
However, before that knock, the D-Backs rallied in the home half of the fifth on a Tucker Barnhart leadoff double and a run-scoring single from Marte – part of a 3-for-4 day to tie the score at 2-2. That’s when the second of the three-headed monster – hitting with RISP – arose as the D-Backs were handed a golden opportunity to retake the lead on a sloppy error from Hoerner when Carroll grounded into a tailor-made, inning-ending double play ball. Instead, the D-Backs had two on with one out and Lourdes Gurriel Jr stepping to the plate. Craig Counsell, noting the possible momentum shift, elected to lift Wicks for Hayden Wesneski for his 2024 debut. For his part, he quickly dispatched Gurriel Jr on three pitches with a weak popout and Christian Walker on a routine flyout to end any possibility of a D-Backs continued rally.
You might note that only two of the three-headed monster have emerged so far in this recap. That’s because the third – inconsistent bullpen results – combined with the second for a nightmarish visiting half of the eighth inning for Joe Mantiply who had been called upon to relieve Pfaadt. Mantiply quickly dispatched Ian Happ, but then allowed a Dansby Swanson single and steal of second to put the go-ahead run in scoring position. That’s when the game got a little squirrelly. Bellinger poked a single into left field that fell between Gurriel Jr and a diving Jace Peterson. It was a classic case of “hit it where they ain’t” that should have resulted in runners at the corners and one out. Instead, Gurriel Jr overran the ball while trying to throw to the plate, which allowed Swanson to scamper home to extend the Cubs lead to 4-2. Then, to compound the miscues, after Gurriel Jr collected the ball and tossed it into Suarez, he elected to try and throw behind an advancing Bellinger at second that got by Marte and into centerfield, which allowed Bellinger to end up at third.
It was a panoply of errors that the Cubs quickly took advantage of with a Michael Busch run-scoring single for a 5-2 Cubs lead. Justin Martinez, recalled from Reno earlier today, was called upon to stanch the bleeding and managed to end the rally without any more damage done. For those that are more than a little masochistic, it’s honestly hard to believe that play without watching it in real time:
The D-Backs offense would scratch one more run across on a solo home run from Joc Pederson in the home half of the ninth for the final 5-3 score. It’s never easy to waste a good starting pitcher’s outing – especially when it lowers their ERA a run and a half (6.48 to 5.32). And in case you thought Torey Lovullo was frustrated by last night’s poor defense and fundamental play that nearly cost them the game, you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be some serious discussions moving forward on how to clean up those fundamentals. There’s still time to make improvements. It’s an extremely long season, but unless the team wrestles with its three-headed monster, it could be a frustrating season instead of a resurgent one.