The Diamondbacks enter the unofficial second half of the season with a 47-50 record that has them buried by 11 games in the NL West and sitting 5.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot (with four teams to leapfrog to get there). General manager Mike Hazen said two weeks ago that he hopes the team puts him in a position to buy at the trade deadline. The team has gone 4-8 since he made those comments. FanGraphs gives the Diamondbacks just a 10.2% chance to make the postseason. Baseball Prospectus is ever so slightly more charitable at 11.3%. The D-backs open the second half with a three-game series against a 51-46 Cardinals team. They follow that with three against a last-place Pirates squad but then face a pair of first-place clubs — Tigers, Astros — in the final stretch leading to the trade deadline.
Suffice it to say, the outlook for 2025 isn’t great. Hazen spoke with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic at this week’s All-Star festivities and acknowledged that the Snakes “are running out of time” and that they would “need to play pretty exceptional” baseball to get back into a buy position prior to the deadline. Hazen also conceded that he’s been fielding inquiries from clear buyers already but naturally wouldn’t commit one way or another when asked about his willingness to make a move well ahead of the July 31 deadline.
[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Trade Deadline Outlook]
Arizona isn’t short on marketable assets, even if the goal is to hang onto players controlled beyond the current season. Corner infielders Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor would be two of the best bats on the market. Suárez was plunked on the hand in last night’s All-Star Game but remained in the contest. Postgame x-rays were negative. Randal Grichuk would be a nice role player for a team looking for a right-handed bat with a long track record versus lefties.
On the pitching side of things, Zac Gallen has struggled all season but has an excellent track record. He looked to be turning a corner with terrific starts on July 1 and 7 (combined 13 innings with one run on 10 hits and a 19-to-1 K/BB ratio) before being rocked for six runs in his final start prior to the break. Merrill Kelly (3.34 ERA in 116 frames) has been strong all season, though, as have relievers Jalen Beeks and Shelby Miller. Both Beeks and Miller are on the injured list — the latter due to a forearm strain on which he is ominously seeking a second opinion. If one or both returns in timely fashion, they’d be obvious trade targets for clubs seeking affordable bullpen help.
It’s at least possible the Diamondbacks will listen on more controllable players. They’re reportedly listened on their outfield depth. Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere, but each of Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Grichuk could hold varying levels of appeal.
If the D-backs do end up as a seller, which seems likely, Piecoro suggests they’ll prioritize adding pitching they can control beyond the current season. That’s only logical with Corbin Burnes facing a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery and both Kelly and Gallen hitting free agency at season’s end. Lefties Blake Walston and Tommy Henry also had UCL surgeries this season — Walston in March, Henry in June. Young righty Cristian Mena is on the 60-day IL due to a shoulder strain. The injury problems extend to the bullpen, where top relievers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk had Tommy John surgery just last month.
Looking ahead to the Diamondbacks’ 2026 rotation mix, they’ll have Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryne Nelson all locked into spots. The former two have struggled to ERAs north of 5.00 this season. Nelson has a 3.68 ERA in 78 1/3 innings. Other in-house options, like 24-year-old righty Yilber Diaz (one of their top prospects entering the season) and 27-year-old Bryce Jarvis, have had nightmare seasons in Triple-A. Diaz currently has an ERA north of 11.00.
Given the broad-reaching slate of injuries and departing free agents, it’s sensible to focus on pitching help to the extent possible. That doesn’t mean the D-backs will turn away offers that include enticing young hitters to take on lesser pitchers, but if two packages of comparable quality are offered up, the D-backs seem likely to favor one that skews toward the pitching side of things.
Of course, the D-backs needn’t focus entirely on rebuilding their staff in the next two weeks. They have nearly $75MM in salary set to come off the books via free agency and could save further money via trades in the next two weeks. Their arbitration class isn’t large, and one of their most notable arbitration salaries (Puk) could come off the books via non-tender. His UCL surgery was just last month, and 2026 is Puk’s final season of club control. There should be ample space — and need — to pursue help both in the rotation and the bullpen this offseason.