The sweep of St. Louis increasingly looks like the last twitch of the death nerve for the 2025 D-backs’ play-off hopes. They haven’t been obviously outclassed by the Astros over the first two games. The difference between the teams largely comes down to Brice Matthews, who has driven in seven of Houston’s nine runs so far. But there HAS been a difference. As I mentioned in the recap comments, the fact Arizona were sending out a 28-year-old pitcher who has been below replacement level over his six-season career, to protect a one-run lead in the eighth… No disrespect to Jake Woodford, but he just hasn’t done enough to show he should be a high-leverage pitcher on a team with post-season aspirations.
The Marlins did beat the Padres again this morning, in another one-run game. But the Reds shutout the Nationals, and the Giants are about to finish off the Braves. The Cardinals will be under way shortly in Coors. But it does mean even a victory today won’t be moving the needle much, and Arizona’s playoff odds are down to 13.1%, according to Fangraphs. Fans of Dumb & Dumber may be saying, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”, but about one in eight isn’t something on which I’d want to bet. To extend the morbid metaphor of this intro, the vultures are circling, looking to pick the carcass clean. I’ve gone from scoreboard watching, to refreshing Twitter and looking for trade reports.