Yep: them again…
It is fair to say that the Dodgers are not running away with the NL West, in the way many (including myself) expected before the season. after another winter orgy of spending. However, in my defense, the competitive nature of the West is less due to Los Angeles, and more to the OVER performances coming out of elsewhere in California. After all, despite being swept in the Freeway Series by the Angels, the Dodgers are still 29-18, on pace to win a hundred games, with a Pythag record exactly in line with their actual record. Their playoff odds at Fangraphs haven’t spent a day below 95%, and at least until the sweep, their division odds were basically the same 83.8% at which they started.
However, they have had their issues, and some people saw them coming. Back in November, after Los Angeles added Blake Snell Jack Sommers wrote that “the Dodgers’ rotation is filled with injury prone pitchers that have durability concerns.” And, lo, it has come to pass. Less than fifty games in, Los Angeles has used no fewer than THIRTEEN different starting pitchers, more than twice as many as the Diamondbacks’ six. Snell made only two starts and is currently on the 60-day IL, while their other big ticket acquisition, Roki Sasaki, is also on the IL, after eight underwhelming starts which were worth precisely replacement level by bWAR.
You could, quite literally, assemble an entire pitching roster off the LA hurlers currently on the IL. The question, however, is whether the Dodgers may have the depth to be able to tolerate Armpocalypse 2025. True, their rotation is ranked 23rd in ERA. But that is only one spot below the D-backs, who at time of writing are one Corbin Burnes skipped start from perfect health. We saw last year what a lack of depth can do; a rotation ERA of 5.42 across May and June. The Dodgers are at 5.19 in May. so are in the same area. Arizona seem to be facing them at an optimum time, and should have a starting edge in two of the three games. Let’s see if they can convert that into wins in the standings.