This might be tough
It has certainly been an emotional roller-coaster for Diamondbacks fans this season. It feels like every tragedy, where it feels the season is going down the plughole, is followed by a surge of positive results. Well, until the next tragedy, anyway. But what’s interesting is how little an impact any of this has had on the team’s overall post-season chances. Below, is the graph of Arizona’s playoff odds from Fangraphs. Of course, there have been ups and downs. But the odds have remained close to the 59.2% at which they started the season: they have only briefly been outside of ten percent, plus or minus, from that figure. Right now, they sit at 53.8%, the best they have been since May 2nd.
I suspect the small decrease is probably less due to Arizona’s own performance, than those of the Padres and Giants, who have both seen significant increases in their odds. San Francisco has improved from 29.0% to 47.2%, and San Diego from 35.1% to 49.9%. You will not be surprised to hear that neither Los Angeles nor Colorado have moved much. While some of their gains come from Arizona, the NL Central also seems to have suffered. On Opening Day, the five teams there combined for 150.2% of post-season percentage. That number is now down to 126.8%. The East, meanwhile, have eaten themselves, cannibalizing the Braves’ odds to feed those of the Phillies and Mets.
The stability of the D-backs’ odds is interesting, because it tends to reinforce my belief about fan sentiment being profoundly reactionary. This isn’t particularly a D-backs thing, or even a baseball thing, and despite my best efforts, I’m as guilty as anyone of it sometimes. Teams across all sports are perceived as only as good as their last game, and players as good as their last appearance. But in baseball particularly, where luck – or “chaos”, if you prefer! – plays such a large part in outcome, it’s magnified, because over a week or two, any player can hit .000 or .500. Witness how we went from bemoaning Scott McGough to “Why the hell is Torey taking him out?” last night.
Emotion is good. Passion is good. We yell, curse and scream at our TVs, because we care. But let’s not forget that a) it’s a very long season, and highly likely that nothing will be decided until September, and b) in the end, it’s only a dumb game. 🙂