Good to see Ketel Marte back in the starting line-up. All the thinking certain members of the SnakePit were doing about his groin last night, clearly did the trick. 🙂 Losing him for any extended period of time, would be about the last thing the team needs as they try to claw back into the wild-card race. Despite last night’s win, Arizona still sits 4.5 wins behind the last wild-card spot, though that is now owned solely by San Francisco. They were previously in a three-way tie with St. Louis and San Diego – those two both lost yesterday, dropping a game off the pace. A win tonight could move the D-backs up the ladder though, bringing them level with the Reds, who are down big early against the Marlins.
Merrill Kelly’s season has hit a little bit of a bump in the road of late. After pitching six shutout innings against the Mariners on June 9, his season ERA was down to 3.18, and his fielding-independent number was almost the same (3.23), indicating he hadn’t been “lucky” to be doing so well. However, Kelly’s last four starts, covering 22 innings, have seen an ERA of 4.91, the Diamondbacks winnings just one of that quarter of games. The strikeouts have still been there (24), but the walks have been creeping up (8), and so have the home-runs (4). Merrill only allowed three HR over the eight previous starts, covering almost fifty innings, so that is something to watch.
Indeed, Kelly is unbeaten this year when he doesn’t allow a home-run. He is 6-0 with four no-decisions. If a ball leaves the park when Merrill is on the mound, he is 1-4 with three no-decisions. The good news is, the Padres do not hit many home-runs: their tally of 76 so far this year, is better than only the Pirates (62) in the National League. Part of that may be Petco, as San Diego have actually hit more homers on the road (40-36) than in their own park. It is playing pitching friendly this year, with an overall Park Factor of 96, ranked 25th. That’s down from 17th in 2024. Hopefully, that’ll help Kelly keep the ball inside the fence, and continue the recent trend.