When will we see the D-backs top prospect?
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The proletariat are getting restless. One of the usual suspects on Twitter is proclaiming “an uprising is happening within the D-backs fan base”. I am certain it will have as much impact as all uprisings within the D-backs fan base, i.e. none at all. But there’s no doubt that Jordan Lawlar has had a hellaciously impressive start to the season. Going into play last night, he was hitting .325, with the majority of hits having gone for extra bases, resulting in an OPS of 1.049. Now, this does remain the PCL, as is demonstrated by catcher Rene Pinto having an even higher OPS of 1.069 (albeit in only 50 PA). The Reno Aces as a whole have an .847 OPS, 37 points better than any team in the majors, and are only third in the ten-team PCL.
But even adjusting for Reno, it’s still likely better than Garrett Hampson’s .464 OPS. Even taking the veteran’s defense into account he has been exactly replacement level this year, and his playing time has no doubt increased with the absence through hamstring issue of Ketel Marte. Tim Tawa is taking his walks, and has more home-runs than Gabriel Moreno, Alek Thomas and Randall Grichuk combined. But one HR every 16.5 AB does not feel very sustainable, and Tawa’s .183 average, although certainly BABIP affected, isn’t winning him many admirers among the Twitterati. Lawlar is undeniably the future. But when will the future get here?
It’s weird to think he made his debut back in September 2023, and since then, Jordan has spent more time on the D-backs’ post-season roster than the regular one. It wasn’t a great first impression, going 4-for-31 before the playoffs, where he barely saw any action (three games, and just two PA). The following year was almost lost entirely, Lawlar appearing in only 23 regular season minor-league games, due to a combination of hamstring and thumb issues. He got more playing time than that over the winter in the Dominican, though the results were underwhelming – a .670 OPS across 27 games. But this year has seen the 22-year-old infielder live up to the hype of being a consensus top-30 pick in all baseball.
When he was sent down in spring, the decision seemed based playing time. He had primarily been a shortstop, but the long-term contract given to Geraldo Perdomo, anointed him as the everyday starter. The Arizona front-office decided it was better to have the prospect playing regularly than battling for scraps of playing-time off the bench. But it’s interesting that, this year, Lawlar has played more at second (105 IP) than short (54). The team’s director of player development Chris Slivka said, “He’s adjusting well to the position. He’s an athlete. He can play all over the field… We’ve given him a steady string of starts here at second base just to make sure he’s more than capable at that position.”
The issue of service time also needs to be taken into consideration. By the rules, if a player earns more than 172 days of service in a season, they will get credit for a full year. There are roughly 187 days in the season, so by NOT calling up a prospect in the first few weeks, teams can potentially ensure the player won’t get a full year, thereby retaining control for an extra season before the prospect hits free-agency. While incentives now exist for teams not to do this by giving extra draft picks, for example if Rookie of the Year winners get that full year, teams have to weigh the cost/benefit. With Roki Sasaki the runaway rookie favorite, the D-backs may have decided to go for the extra year of control over Lawlar.
This may have been a factor in why they didn’t call Jordan up when Ketel Marte hit the injured list. At that point, we were still early enough that, if Lawlar had remained on the major-league roster, he would have got full credit, thereby costing the team his services in 2031. Of course, had he been optioned back down, that would not be an issue. But you’d have to think there are significant odds of him doing better than Hampson and basically making it impossible for the team to send Lawlar back down when Ketel returned. While they could now promote Jordan without losing a year of service, the remaining time before Marte comes off the IL is considerably shorter.
Naturally, there’s no guarantee that the success Lawlar has had in the minors will translate to the major-league level. Last year, Michael Perez had a 1.066 OPS in about the same amount of playing time, and is currently unemployed. But Michael McDermott dug a bit deeper into Lawlar’s numbers, and concluded, “given his performance through the first four weeks of the season, he’s showing that he’s ready for the next opportunity when it comes around.” That’s in the hands of Mike Hazen and his staff. But if you were the GM, would you bring up Jordan Lawlar? That’s what the poll below is for, but I appreciate there are other options, which would be why we have comments… Explain yourself there!
Answers to follow, probably on Saturday.