2025 hasn’t unfolded as expected on the mound for Arizona
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Before the season, it looked like the D-backs might have one of the strongest pitching staffs in the major leagues. The arrival of Corbin Burnes, a healthy Merrill Kelly, breakout candidate Brandon Pfaadt, plus the proven names of Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez, coming in with career ERA+ of 129 and 110 respectively, looked to be a real strength for Arizona. However, here we are, a month into the season and the D-backs rotation ranks 24th in the majors with a 4.56 ERA – slightly higher than last year’s 4.41. Pfaadt is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.78, though even he has a fielding independent ERA (FIP) which is more than a run higher (3.95). Everyone else has combined to go 5-9 with a 5.07 ERA over 23 starts.
This is particularly rough, considering the other four starting pitchers will earn a total of $72.2 million this year. And that’s not including a further $22.5 million being paid to Jordan Montgomery as he rehab from Tommy John. All told, that’s close to a hundred million bucks being spent by the D-backs this year, for performance which, outside of Pfaadt, has basically been at replacement level. In some cases, improvement can be hoped for. Eduardo Rodriguez, for example has a FIP which is a whole two runs below his ERA. Only three of the 83 qualified pitchers have a gap bigger than that [all in the NL West, for some weird reason] But Kelly and Burnes both have FIPs higher than their current ERA.
A couple of weeks ago in this spot, we asked you which player you were most concerned about. I want to revisit the issue, now we’ve got a better sample size to look at, and I also wanted to focus purely on the rotation. It feels like there are question-marks over everyone, of varying sizes and fonts. Too many home-runs allowed would be the communal trait. The 25 allowed so far by Arizona’s starters is tied for the most in the National League, and on pace for 140 on the year, which would be thirty-four more than last season. Kelly and Pfaadt are well-below average in terms of strikeouts. Rodriguez has an OPS against of .837. Gallen is walking people at a career-high rate. And Burnes is still without a win for Arizona.
So, who do you think is the BIGGEST problem? Take into account past pedigree, current performance and their longer-term future with the club, in terms of contract length and value. Show your working in the comments. And also feel free to discuss what – if anything – can actually be DONE about it. Or are the team going to have ride these horses until the end of the season, come what may?