…and what will be left of them?
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The writing appears to be on the wall for the 2025 Diamondbacks. They reach the break with only the 10th-best record in the National League, 51⁄2 games back of the third wild-card spot. Fangraphs currently gives them a season-low 10.4% chance of making the playoffs, so barely more than one in ten. True, Arizona have been the victim of an almost non-stop barrage of injuries. But the only significant help they’ll get coming back off the in the second half is going to be Gabriel Moreno. It seems likely that the team will be sellers as we approach the deadline at the end of the month, and there’s likely to be no shortage of buyers, with the D-backs having some top-shelf rentals to offer.
There are four main pieces: for the purpose of this, I’ll discount bullpen arms like Jalen Beeks and Shelby Miller (the latter is likely to be on the IL anyway), and also Randal Grichuk. We are talking, instead, about everyday players at the corner infield positions, Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, and starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen. All four would potentially be of interest to contending teams seeking extra oomph for their offense, or to improve their rotation. Among potential trade partners for one or more of these current D-backs are the Mariners, Yankees and Blue Jays in the American League, while the Mets, Cubs and Reds could be trade partners within our own league.
Obviously, the short-term nature of the players concerned will limit the return. But given it’s likely to be a seller’s market for all of those (admittedly, to varying degrees), it could certainly give the team a chance to restock areas of need. However, part of the problem is that the team is largely short of credible alternatives to replace these players. The obvious candidate at third-base would be prospect Jordan Lawlar. However, he is again having a season hamstrung by… well, his hamstring in this case. He has been on the Injured List for almost a month with a strain there, and there’s no information on when he might return. Otherwise, maybe Blaze Alexander becomes your everyday starter at the hot corner?
At first, the team could look to Pavin Smith… who is also on the IL, having gone there a week or so ago with a strained oblique. That led to the major-league debut of Tristin English, but he is not a player who was in Arizona’s top 30 prospects at the start of the season, or even Fangraph’s top 53. So I’d not be expecting too much. As for the rotation, Bryce Jarvis is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster who doesn’t have an “IL” by his name. Right now, we’d probably end up converting someone like Jake Woodford back from a long reliever to a starter. The impact on the team’s second-half record of all these replacements likely doesn’t need to be detailed.
But as a guesstimate, the worst drop-off between first and second half for Arizona was back on 2000, when they lost 121 points of win percentage. [Interesting, 2023 was next worst, at a 120-point drop]. If that is matched after the break this year, following a sell-off of all our expiring contracts, it would be a .364 W% for the second half, an ugly 24-41 record which would see the Diamondbacks finishing at 71 wins. That would certainly have a negative impact on ticket sales – and also on renewals for 2026. It could well make it very difficult for Ken Kendrick to sustain a payroll which is already the highest in franchise history. Fire sales never make great advertising.
So, how many of those big four do you think will be dealt over the remainder of the month? That’s what the poll below is for. If you want extra credit, go into the comments and tell us exactly which players you think will go, and why!