An extended read for an off-day afternoon
The Diamondbacks wake up this morning with a 27-29 record, the first time they’ve been two games below .500 this year. They sit fourth in the NL West, seven games back of the Dodgers, and are five games back for the final wild-card spot (currently an effective tie between the Padres and Cardinals). The recent series against the Pirates – one of the worst teams in the National League – was a harsh wake-up call for the D-backs. They dropped the series at home, and were outscored by seven, at one stage allowing Pittsburgh to score nineteen unanswered runs. It was a demonstration in miniature of all Arizona’s problems this year.
So, with an off-day today, I figured it was a good chance to take stock of where the team sits, and what – if anything – can be done to help the team over the remaining two-thirds or so of the season.
Is change necessary?
There are arguments which would caution against over-reaction. After all, fan sentiment tends to be very short-term, proclaiming player X to be in a terrible slump, and demanding he be removed from the roster after an 0-for-12 spell [Ok, who are we kidding. X = Pavin Smith] However, we are now 56 games in, and the “It’s still early” argument is no longer one which can be relied upon. Also growing tenuous is, “We have a better record than we did at this point last year.” It’s true: the D-backs were two game worse off, at 25-31, and were four games into a five-game losing streak. However, that was very much the low point. When the calendar turned to June, the team would go on a 33-19 run, resurrecting the season.
While something like that is always possible, it would be optimistic to rely on another two-month spell where this team wins at a near-record pace. Admittedly, the schedule – another common defense of Arizona’s record – does look easier going forward. By virtually every metric, the D-backs have had the hardest, or close to, schedule of games so far, of any team in the majors. The rest of the way, that’s not the case: Tankathon rates our remaining games the third-easiest. However, recently only going 3-3 at home against the Pirates and Rockies is not great. Arizona’s record against teams with losing records is only 10-8 overall, which does suggest it’s not just a strength of schedule issue.
The offense
To get the easy bit out of the way first. Overall, despite the losses of Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, the offense is almost unchanged by OPS on last season, down just one point to 114. However, the team is scoring almost half a run less (5.47 to 4.97). The reason for this is clear: a very sharp drop-off in performance with runners in scoring position. In 2024, this was a strength. The team was first in OPS with RISP at .852 – forty-three points better than anyone else. This season? That has plummeted all the way to .687, ranking the D-backs 21st. Is this fixable? Or is it just bad luck? Because the team’s BABIP with RISP is all the way down at .249, which is third-lowest in the majors.
In terms of personnel, there’s probably not much which can be done here. Reports today indicate that Jordan Lawlar has been sent down to Reno, with Ildemaro Vargas coming up to take his place. But it’s not as if giving Lawlar’s twenty-two plate appearances to somebody else would have moved the needle very much. Elsewhere, perhaps we might see Alek Thomas (OPS+ 87 and dropping, with a .479 OPS over the past three weeks) see more time on the bench, perhaps with Corbin Carroll moving to center, and Randall Grichuk getting more starts in the field. But it’s really just re-arranging the existing pieces, and I do not think we’ll see any significant trade deadline moves from Mike Hazen.
Starting pitching
This certainly has not been the area of strength we hoped it would be, before the season started. Corbin Burnes has been great. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt have been more than serviceable (though Pfaadt’s 4.91 FIP, the worst of anybody in the rotation, has me worrying about future regression). It’s Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez who have been the problem, combining for 21 starts with an ERA of 6.14, and only four wins between them. It has been suggested that E-Rod should move to the bullpen, with Ryne Nelson taking his spot. Torey Lovullo basically nuked that idea, saying “E-Rod’s a starting pitcher and we’re going to keep him that way.”
If FIP is to be believed, that’s for the best. Because Rodriguez’s 4.28 is not only far better than his ERA (7.05), it’s barely distinguishable from Burnes’ 4.09. The gap between FIP and ERA for E-Rod is the fifth biggest of the 127 pitchers with 40+ innings this season. However, through the end of June last year, Jordan Montgomery’s ERA was two runs above his FIP. The hoped-for regression did not happen, with the figures the rest of the way being 5.96 and 4.55. So there’s no guarantee Rodriguez will get better. However, there’s no denying his contract situation is a factor. Even after this season, he’s owed another $40 million, and few teams will pay that for a reliever.
I wonder if Gallen’s position in the rotation might be more at risk. His FIP (4.57) is higher than Rodriguez, and he’s very unlikely to be a D-back after this season, so it’s not as if the team has to worry about his feelings. I’ve mentioned this before, but Gallen has been very mediocre since coming off the Injured List last June. That’s now 29 starts since then, with an underwhelming 4.64 ERA. Maybe he’ll end up getting moved to the bullpen? It would certainly be something for Arizona’s Opening Day starter to end the year working in relief, but it would not be unprecedented. Josh Collmenter did exactly that in 2015, moving to the bullpen in June after posting a 5.24 ERA as a starter – actually better than Gallen’s right now.
The bullpen
Saving the best on-field area for last. Oh, hang on: sarcasm font doesn’t work in articles. I trust I need hardly draw you a picture about the Arizona relievers of late. They have posted a 6.75 ERA for May, to go with a 2-7 record. With two games left to go, that ERA is currently the worst for a calendar month by the D-backs bullpen in 15 years, since the May 2010 version had a franchise-worst 8.56 ERA. [That was a factor in getting A.J. Hinch fired as manager about a month later. I’m just sayin’…] Oddly, this year, the Dodgers actually have more blown saves (12 vs. 11) and the same number of saves as the D-backs (17). The difference is their large edge in holds (43 vs. 30).
It’s here I think we’re likely to see Hazen make some moves, hoping for something along the lines of the 2023 run, where the team picked up Paul Sewald and rode his arm to the World Series. Though it’s worth noting Sewald demonstrates reliever volatility: a three-year spell from 2021-2023 when he had a 2.95 ERA, and a 5.55 ERA over the rest of his career, now in its ninth season. That kind of thing feels like lightning in a bottle, and for every occasion where a trade deadline relief acquisition works, there are others that don’t. Remember Dylan Floro last year? Exactly. 2.06 ERA over 51 games for the Nationals. Came to Arizona and had a 9.37 ERA the rest of the way. So it’s no magic bullet.
There’s been criticism leveled at Hazen for not spending on bullpen help this winter. I don’t think that’s necessarily fair. I suspect the plan was to get as much of Jordan Montgomery as possible off the books, and use that. But Tommy John had other plans, leaving the D-backs to pay all $22.5 million. Though as discussed recently, I’m not a fan of paying for expensive relievers, because genuinely “reliable” ones are scarce. I think the front-office have already squeezed ownership for just about everything they can in terms of payroll. If an impact arm is to arrive before the trade deadline, it may require spending prospect capital in the deal. But Ben has an article coming up later tonight on bullpen options, so I’ll say no more here!
Off the field
Naturally, change doesn’t just occur within the lines, and there’s increasing pressure likely to come on coaches, the manager and even the front-office. I suspect that’s likely the order of likelihood too. I can certainly see a scenario where pitching coach Brian Kaplan gets the boot, because what was supposed to be a strength this year has become a liability. Despite the arrival of Burnes, the team’s collective ERA+ has declined two points on last season, dropping from 91 to 89. If last year’s performance was deemed poor enough to get Brent Strom canned, it would be logical to conclude Kaplan shouldn’t be kept around. The same goes for bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda.
Naturally, it’s manager Torey Lovullo who has come in for most criticism, but I would not expect any changes before the end of the season. [Changing managers rarely has much effect. The three MLB teams to fire managers this year have improved their W% under the new men by… .039] As ever, it’s very difficult to come up with any kind of objective measure for managerial effectiveness. Some criticism is legitimate. But often he’s maligned for things that are outside his control (Jack has written some good articles on this topic), or frankly ludicrous stuff like not calling players out more in press conferences. You want that? Really? But both Derrick Hall and Hazen have recently backed Lovullo, Hazen saying:
“He is ultimately responsible for it, but it is a group that is making decisions based on the information they have. We are aware of why they make those decisions. We’re part of some of that calculus and giving them information that they have available to them. And you trust that they’re making the right decisions, and I do believe he’s doing that. When the execution doesn’t happen, then it’s the easiest place to go is it was his decision that screwed it up. That is not what happens. The players bear a responsibility to execute in those situations.”
But if things don’t change, and the highest payroll in franchise history results in a worse record, and stays home in October? I’m sure Ken Kendrick and the owners will not be happy, and they may [emphasis entirely deliberate] decide on a change in direction this winter. For all Hazen’s successes, he has never been able to solve the pitching question. Even discounting the early, lean years, and beginning after six years of Hazen drafting, development and recruiting, from the pennant winning season of 2023 through now, the D-backs rank 26th in fWAR for pitching. That’s not something any successful team can hope to survive in the long-term.