The final weekend of regular season baseball is here, and there remain so many scenarios that end with champagne showers for the Arizona Diamondbacks or an unceremonious end to their NL pennant defense.
Arizona putting together a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres at Chase Field punches its ticket, no matter what fellow NL Wild Card contenders the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves do the rest of the way. But this situation is a bit more complicated without a perfect weekend.
The Mets and Braves play a doubleheader on Monday due to postponements from Hurricane Helene, so they each have five games left to Arizona’s three. That’s one of several reasons the magic number is a bit of a moving target here. Sure, three wins is a clinch, but two wins and one Braves loss in no way guarantees the D-backs get to jump in the pool.
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Perhaps laying out the D-backs’ clinching scenarios is simpler, even if all these possibilities are a bit bell-ringing.
FanGraphs’ odds have Arizona (58.6%) slightly behind New York (76.7%) and Atlanta (64.7%) to make the playoffs entering play on Friday.
Arizona (88-71) sits in a virtual tie with New York (87-70) and one game ahead of Atlanta (86-71) without a tiebreaker over either team.
The Padres (91-68), who fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday to end their NL West chase, are three ahead of the D-backs and can lock up the top Wild Card spot with another win.
The playoffs truly start this weekend at Chase Field.
Will the Diamondbacks make the playoffs? D-backs clinching scenarios
3 wins by Arizona
Let the beer and bubbles flow, it’s over.
The Diamondbacks would jump the Padres and eliminate either the Mets or Braves with a 91-win season. This would also give the D-backs a chance to host a Wild Card Series unless the Mets finish with a 4-1 or 5-0 record. In that case, the D-backs would be off to Queens.
2 wins by Arizona
There is a reason general manager Mike Hazen was referencing the 90-win mark as significant earlier this week.
Essentially, the Mets and Braves would need to combine for four or more losses in 10 combined games left, and two of those will come Monday.
The D-backs would reach 90 wins, while the Mets and Braves eliminate the chance to both crack 90 with four more defeats between them.
That means either the Braves or Mets would have to lose at least two of three games in their respective series this weekend, or they each drop at least one. The Mets are in Milwaukee, while the Braves host Kansas City.
For example, if the Mets and Braves both win two of three games this weekend, their 89 and 88 win totals would ensure Monday’s doubleheader only decides which of the NL East rivals moves on.
If the Mets drop two of three in Milwaukee and the Braves sweep Kansas City, same deal: New York would have 88 wins and Atlanta 89. If the Braves drop two games to the Royals and the Mets sweep the Brewers, the Braves are eliminated.
1 win by Arizona
This is where it gets really tricky for the Diamondbacks.
For 89 wins to get Arizona into October, the Mets would have to finish 1-4 or 0-5, or the Braves would need to go 2-3 or worse.
The D-backs finishing with 89 wins would be enough by the end of the weekend only if the Braves get swept. That’s the lone scenario where Monday’s doubleheader would not matter for the D-backs’ postseason chances, only seeding, in this case.
No wins by Arizona
Arizona would need the Mets to lose out or have the Braves finish 1-4 or 0-5.
The D-backs would not be in a position to clinch before Monday if they are swept by San Diego.
Unfavorable matchups to help the D-backs
The Mets visit a Brewers team with absolutely nothing to play for. The Brewers are the NL Central champs locked into the third division winner spot behind the Dodgers and Phillies. Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy can manage workloads with his pitching and position players.
Frankie Montas (4.85 ERA) will start on Friday for the Brewers against Mets ace Sean Manaea (3.29 ERA).
The Braves host the Royals, whose magic number for an AL Wild Card berth is one. A Royals win or a Minnesota Twins loss would clinch a spot for Kansas City, as only the second or third Wild Card slot would be up for debate.
Brady Singer (3.73 ERA) starts for Kansas City against Atlanta’s Max Fried (3.42 ERA) in the opener.
And that is why FanGraphs’ odds have the D-backs’ odds behind the Mets and Braves to make the postseason entering play on Friday.
Doubleheader impacts Diamondbacks
Failing to clinch before Monday’s doubleheader is a tenuous possibility for the Diamondbacks.
That scenario brings up the potential nightmare of either the Mets or Braves clinching in the first game of their doubleheader and slamming the brakes to preserve their top starters, relievers and position players for a second game in which the other club needs a win to get in. If the D-backs win 90 games but both the Mets and Braves sit at 89 entering Monday, that’s a problem.
There’s also this scenario: Let’s say the D-backs finish with 89 wins, the Mets sweep the Brewers to clinch while the Braves win two of three against Kansas City. Atlanta would only need one win in two games against the Mets’ B-Team to eliminate the D-backs.
Very simply, the Diamondbacks could really use two wins to keep their odds solid — if they don’t slam the door with three.
Yes, the playoffs truly start this weekend.