Our annual survey of the writers, and your chance to have your say!
Every year the Snakepit staff comes together as a community and gives their best prediction for how the Diamondbacks will do in a given season. Generally, those predictions will be based on well-reasoned evidence and statistical analysis, but will often be just based on gut feeling or just being stubborn.
Steak86 – 92
Despite pretty bad pitching last year, the team performed well, but had tons of bad luck. The pitching will be better. The offense will take a step back, but the metrics that are more reliable in spring (swing decisions, exit velocity) indicate that Marte and Josh Naylor/Randal Grichuk should be able to sustain production from the 2B, 1B, and DH positions. This looks like it could be the best pitching staff, top to bottom, in franchise history.
And the Dodgers are already a game up. So 92 wins might not do more than send the Dbacks to Milwaukee, yet again. But at least they can’t be the first team ever to get eliminated by tie-breakers determined in offices in New York instead of on the field. That distinction will eternally belong to the 2024 Diamondbacks.
1AZfan1 – 92
I’m going with a slight improvement on the win total from last year. The lineup likely won’t be as good, but I’m hopeful that the starting pitching and bullpen will be able to make up the difference. What I’m more optimistic about is two aspects of luck. First our injury luck wasnt terrible, but it wasn’t good, either. Also, we were less than lucky in extra innings games last year (5-8 record). I’m expecting the extra innings luck to bounce us back to at least .500 in those games which would give us a few games improvement over last year. If we get really lucky in the extra innings (Padres were 10-2 in extras last year) and we have no major injuries, this team could approach 100 wins.
James Attwood – 90
The team is going to need to be more efficient than it was last season due to the departures of so many impact bats. However, the pitching should be (and that is a very big SHOULD) substantially improved over last season. Hopefully, that offsets any losses from the offensive side and then some. Last season the team ended up with 89 wins and was one game short of matching its Pythagorean record. With (hopefully) better team balance and a strengthened bullpen due to the addition of some quality arms that were injured last year, I think it’s very possible for the team to run themselves into meeting that Pythagorean record, which would have made them the final playoff team last year instead of the final omission from the playoff bracket. All of this goes out the window though if there is any sort of injury problem. As has been the case for a while now, this team has no appreciable depth if any one of a number of particular players gets hurt for more than a few days.
Makakilo – 90.3
90.3 wins is based on predictions of 809 runs scored and 713 runs allowed. Details are in an AZ Snake Pit article which can be found at this link
Spencer O’Gara – 87
I’m going a little conservative with 87 this year. My optimism is extremely high and I think 100 wins is possible. But that underestimates the Dodgers and that’s unfair to us and them. So 87 wins and a Wild Card sounds excellent to me! I don’t trust ERod in the rotation and due to previous pitcher signings I’m hesitant of Burnes, but I’m a big believer in contract year boosts (Gallen), Pfaadt and Ryne. The offense seems squared away, especially with Lawlar waiting in the wings. Defense might be an issue but so be it I suppose. The bullpen hasn’t had me this excited in a long time. Outside of Monty, I trust every arm right now which is unheard of. I’m sure injuries and ineffectiveness will rear their heads soon enough across the board to some degree but overall I’m very confident in this iteration of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Brett_Johnson44 – 94
Obviously the lineup could lose a little bit of that homerun and run scoring power that had them as the top scoring offense in 2024, but with Corbin Burnes joining this rotation and the bullpen seeming to be the strongest we have had in many years, I see them being a more well rounded team than they were in 2024 and I think a 5+ win improvement is a very realistic outcome for this Snakes squad in 2025
ISH95 – 100
I’m going to keep predicting this until it happens dammit!
But seriously, this is a great team on paper. Key parts of that team have looked great this Spring Training. For possibly the first time ever, there isn’t a part of the team that I’m specifically worried about. Sure, the bullpen could be better, but it’s hardly a dumpster fire either. Martinez, Puk, and Ginkel in the back are a solid trio. We have arugably the deepest rotation in baseball. Basically this exact same offense was the best in MLB last season. Throw in the fact that my gut tells me either the Padres or Giants are going to step in it and put together a Dbacks 2021-esque season, there is a path for this team to hit triple digits.
justin27 – 88-91.
For an actual number, I will be bold and say 90. Last year (I think it was) I simmed 10 seasons on Baseball Mogul, without human intervention. I didn’t get the beta this year, so can’t do that. This year, I just looked at some win projection sites and looked at WAR totals (Naylor was almost 1 full WAR point below Christian Walker. Oh, who am I kidding, this wasn’t very scientific lol.
Kind of wish I had Mogul now that I think of it. That was interesting last year posting about the high and low win totals and how the seasons went.
Jim McLennan – 89
The same as last year, albeit in a somewhat different way. The pitching will generally be improved, but I don’t think the team will be able to repeat as scoring the most runs in baseball. The loss of Joc Pederson will hurt, and while Josh Naylor can probably replace Christian Walker at the plate, the defense will be a downgrade. I also expect the record in one-run games to regress to the mean. All told, I think it’ll balance out, but this year, 89 wins will be enough for a playoff spot. Then, who knows?
C.Wesley Baier – 90
I actually changed my mind after the fact, and I’m going to go with 10 wins. They’re going to smash the smash the Spider’s record for worse winning percentage.
In all seriousness, my gut says they’ll be much better than last year. They did actually get better during the regular season, and made a big FA splash to boot.
mcbenseigs23 – 91
Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes have the possibility of being the best Arizona starting pitcher combination since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Corbin Carroll looks absolutely locked in at the plate and has made mechanical changes to adjust away from his struggles last year. There is absolute filthiness in the back end of the bullpen. The team has legitimate upper level pitching depth for the first time in what feels like forever while there are top-level prospects seeking to graduate and make their impact on the big league club. I’m all in on the team cracking 90+ wins for the first time in nearly a decade.
samath – 93
Using last year’s Pythagorean wins of 90 as the baseline, I expect a ~6-win improvement in the rotation counteracted by a ~3-win decline in the offense. These are just gut feelings though.
DBacksEurope – 87
I do not believe we will reach the same heights as last year, at least not offensively, but just like last year, I hope this will be enough to reach the playoffs. Gallen will lead us in his career year and Kelly might just have enough left in his tank for his final year. Burnes and Rodriguez will do enough so we don’t need to burn Thompson, Puk, Ginkel and Martinez before the season is over. We will lose many against the Dodgers, make those losses up by punching on the Rockies and stay just in front of the Padres. This is not a great team, but still one to be aware of.
Dano in Tucson – 92
Despite the decision to go with Garrett Hamster instead of Ildemaro Vargas for the bench bat, I still feel pretty optimistic about our group going into the regular season.
All told, that’s an average prediction of 91.3 wins, with a range of 87 to 100. But now it’s time for you to tell us what you reckon… Poll below, feel free to give an exact prediction and an explanation in the comments!
Do you have your own prediction for 2025? Do you agree or disagree with any of our writers predictions? Do you think that the ‘pit is being too optimistic? Let us know down in the comment section down below!