Have clear frontrunners emerged already?
Introduction
Rookie of the year is one of those awards that’s never been based purely on performance. For example, Dontrelle Willis wasn’t quite as good as Brandon Webb in 2003, but the vibes surrounding him and the eventual World Series winning Marlins were a key part of him getting the award that year. So before we begin, I’m largely ranking these players off of their bWAR totals, with a special consideration to the unquantifiable ‘Vibes’ they bring. Vibes can include things like a team being in contention, hitting for a high batting average, home run totals, etc.
American League Rookie of the Year
In the American League, there’s a clear frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, and that’s Philadelphia Kansas City Oakland Sacramento the Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson. Wilson is hitting .347/.388/.487 with a 149 wRC+, and has been worth 2.4 bWAR and 3.3 fWAR. Although not as flashy, Boston Red Sox Catcher Carlos Narvaez has been quietly having a great rookie season. Narvaez’s .268/.349/.431 batting line might not be as impressive Wilson’s, but he’s put up 2.2 bWAR/2.4fWAR in 15 less games than Wilson, so he should at least be in the conversation. Just based on vibes though, I’d give it to Wilson just based on the high BA, even if Narvaez has handled Boston’s pitching staff remarkably well for a rookie catcher, and is technically the most valuable rookie by bWAR. Kansas City Royals pitcher Noah Cameron has had a solid rookie season so far; In his 8 starts, he’s pitched 47.2 IP with a 2.08 ERA and 199 ERA+.
National League Rookie of the Year
There really aren’t any clear frontrunners for the National League at this point in the season. If we’re just going by WAR and looking at just the position players, Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is the frontrunner with 1.9 bWAR in 52 games, the most in the National League. Baldwin is hitting .288/.358/.487 with 9 hrs, good for a 135 wRC+. Alternatively, you could go with Dodgers infielder Hyeseong Kim, who’s been worth 1.2 bWar/1.0 fWAR in 34 games. Surprisingly, Kim isn’t deriving value from his defense and has actually been much more valuable offensively, as evidence by his robust .372/.410/.538 batting line along with a 168 wRC+.
If we’re looking at pitchers, as far as actual quantifable value produced, then you have to go with the Reds Rhett Lowder. In his six starts, Lowder has pitched 30 2/3 with a 1.17 ERA and has been worth 1.9 bWAR.
Finally there are players who as of right now just haven’t played enough to call them frontrunners, but probably will be if they keep it up the rest of the season. Prime example being Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who’s given up just two earned runs while striking out an inning per per batter in eleven innings pitched. I don’t really have other examples, Spencer had privately mentioned him in a conversation, so I had to work that in somewhere.
So who do you think is going to win the Rookie of the Year in American League and the National League? Who’s earned it for the first half the season? Who are the glaring omissions in this article?