Offense: Diamondbacks Do It Right | Phoenix Sports Today

Eugenio Suarez. | Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Inspiration.

Ninth inning against the Marlins; score was 5 Diamondbacks, 9 Marlins. When behind by at least 3 runs, the Diamondbacks have a big inning comeback to take the lead in an incredible 25% of their games with opportunities (see this AZ Snake Pit article). Would it happen again? I was overflowing with optimism.

The bottom of the order loaded the bases with no outs. The top of the order scored 3 runs, to reach a 1-run game, runners on first and third, one out (Marte missed a chance to homer for an exciting end to the game). Rookie Tim Tawa was at the plate because he replaced Naylor earlier in the game. Sadly, a double play ended the comeback.

“That’s the beauty of this game: you can do a lot of things right, in one inning pile some things up, and not win a baseball game. Overall I was proud of the fight. I was proud of the way we kept going all night long.” — Torey Lovullo, postgame on 27 June.

My opinion of the Diamondbacks offense remained very positive. Let’s look at what the offense does right.

Their baserunners score often.

The following table shows that in 16 games (8-25 June), that the Diamondbacks scored baserunners at a pace better than their 2024 season, when they scored the most runs in the Majors. That’s one thing they are doing right. This season their runs scored per game ranks third in the Majors (behind the Dodgers and the Cubs). More details about this baserunner perspectives are in this AZ Snake Pit article.

Batters have two missions: get on base and score runs.

This AZ Snake Pit article talks about the two types of batters. The following table shows, for games played on 8-25 June, which Diamondbacks were skilled in getting on base. The best were Marte, Naylor, Perdomo, and Gurriel. Getting on base is another thing they are doing right.

The following table shows, for games played on 8-25 June, which Diamondbacks were skilled at scoring runs. The best were Suarez, Naylor, Marte, Perdomo, and Smith.

Eugenio Suarez is back after a pitch hit his hand.

After missing three games, on Friday he played a complete game at third base. For games played 8-25 June, Suarez averaged more than one RBI per game.

Two impact batters who will soon return from injury.

Josh Naylor has a sore neck and is day-to-day. After leaving in the middle of Friday’s game, he did not play in the next three games. Josh Naylor was second best at getting on base AND at hitting RBIs.

Corbin Carroll has a chipped bone in his wrist. Although his return date in unknown, there are good reasons to think he could be back by (or just before) the All-Star break. Corbin Carroll was 8th/7th best at getting on base and hitting RBIs, but his contribution to the team is greater than that.

Impact batters will soon return from injury, which is another thing they are doing right.

Will their return be soon enough to keep the Diamondbacks contending for a Wild Card Berth to the playoffs?

My view is that injuries contributed to the Diamondbacks merely winning (instead of sweeping) their series with the Rockies and the White Socks. The loss to the Marlins (previously discussed in inspiration paragraph) lowered their playoff odds by 5.5% per Baseball Reference. The Diamondbacks were swept by the Marlins, which lowered their playoff odds.

As of games played through 29 June, the following table shows playoff odds for the NL West. Although 10.5% odds sounds low, if the Diamondbacks achieve 90th percentile performance, they could win 89 games. Possibly that would get them a Wild Card berth.

I am confident that the Diamondbacks will keep fighting to the last game of the season, which is another thing they are doing right.

Summary.

The Diamondbacks batters are doing the following things right.

Recently, the Diamondbacks are getting on base at the same pace as last season.
Recently, the Diamondbacks scored baserunners at a pace better than last season, when they scored the most runs in the Majors.
Eugenio Suarez is back after a pitch hit his hand.
Josh Naylor and Corbin Carroll will soon return from injury.

I am confident that the Diamondbacks will keep fighting to the last game of the season.