It wasn’t even two weeks ago when MLBTR did a poll regarding whether or not anything could shake up the seemingly-stagnant NL playoff picture. At the time, more than 64% of respondents believed that the sextet of clubs in postseason position (Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, and Mets) would be the ones to ultimately represent the senior circuit in October. The playoff odds over at FanGraphs were even more bullish on that group, as New York’s 95.2% chance to make the postseason was the lowest out of those six clubs.
A lot has changed since then regarding the perception of the NL’s playoff field. While five of the aforementioned six teams are still all but guaranteed to play in October, the Mets have entered a freefall. While a win on Sunday snapped their losing streak at eight games, they’re still 4-9 in September and 15-26 since the start of August (though they’re beating up on the Padres tonight). That extended slump has opened the door for the hangers-on in the NL playoff field to take advantage and, while the Reds and Giants have mostly spun their wheels with 75-75 records headed into the final two weeks of the season, one team has taken full advantage to force themselves back into the conversation: the Arizona Diamondbacks, who weren’t even a listed option for the postseason in that aforementioned early September poll.
With an 8-5 record in September and 25-17 since the start of August, Arizona’s been almost the inverse of the Mets over the past six weeks. Despite selling off everyone from Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller at the deadline, they’ve fought their way back over .500 and now sit just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with 11 games to go after last night’s win over the Giants. It’s very impressive for the team to have rebounded this well over the past few weeks, and a lot of things needed to go the right way for that to happen.
Since the start of August, Zac Gallen (2.68 ERA), Ryne Nelson (3.61 ERA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.63 ERA) have all looked like quality starters, while Nabil Crismatt has broken out to deliver 30 innings of 2.70 ERA ball in the rotation since making his season debut on August 17. The offense, meanwhile, has gotten sensational performances out of not just superstars like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, but also lower profile talents like Geraldo Perdomo (174 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances) and Gabriel Moreno (166 wRC+ in 74 plate appearances). Even rookie Blaze Alexander (124 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances) has done a great job letting fans in Arizona forget about the loss of Suarez.
As monumental as the team’s efforts to force their way into the postseason have been, they still face a very uphill climb even as they sit just a game and a half back. The schedule has done them absolutely no favors. After this series against the Giants, they’ll run a gauntlet of Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres to close out the season. Perhaps the series in Philadelphia won’t be as difficult as it might look on paper if the Phils ease off the gas after clinching the NL East last night, but L.A. and San Diego remain locked in a close battle for the NL West and surely won’t make it easy for their division rivals in the desert to finish this attempt at a comeback.
All of that leaves Arizona with just a 7.7% chance to make the postseason entering play today, according to FanGraphs. Those are long odds, and while they’ll surely improve at least somewhat if the Diamondbacks can put the Giants to bed in this ongoing series, even a sweep isn’t especially likely to move the needle unless the Mets help them out by doing a lot of losing in the coming days. Even then, the Giants and Reds both lurk just half a game behind the Snakes. A series loss to the Giants would likely spell the end of Arizona’s hopes then and there, and a schedule that affords Cincinnati five more games against the struggling Cardinals and Pirates should keep them competitive even if Arizona can dispatch San Francisco.
Unlikely as it may seem on paper, however, an eight-game September losing streak in Queens and the Diamondbacks winning at a .595 clip after trading off their best players didn’t seem terribly likely either. Could Arizona really finish the job and return to the postseason this year? Have your say in the poll below:
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