There has been plenty of trade speculation surrounding the Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger this offseason, as both players have outsized salaries and are somewhat imperfect roster fits on their respective clubs. These same issues have seemingly led to a rather quiet trade market for either player to date, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Arizona “tried to get the Cubs interested in a swap” involving the two players. It isn’t known if the proposed deal was a straight one-for-one trade or if other players were involved, though it could be a moot point since the Cubs apparently didn’t have much interest.
Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of only an okay 2024 season, leaving him on Chicago’s roster through the 2026 season for $52.5MM in remaining salary. This breaks down as $27.5MM in 2025, and then Bellinger can either opt out of the final year of the deal and pocket a $5MM buyout on his way back to free agency, or he can again forego the opt-out clause and earn $25MM in 2026.
Montgomery also decided against opting out of the final year of his two-year deal Arizona, and will receive $22.5MM for the 2025 season. Whereas a case could’ve been made for Bellinger to test the market again this winter, there was no doubt Montgomery would be staying in his contract in the wake of a disastrous first season with the D’Backs. Montgomery signed with Arizona just before Opening Day and then struggled to a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings, seemingly a by-product of missing Spring Training and not having a proper ramp-up due to his extended stint in free agency.
D’Backs owner Ken Kendrick was publicly critical of the Montgomery signing during a radio interview back in October, which was viewed as either some surprisingly harsh honesty from an executive about a player, or as Kendrick’s attempt to try and get Montgomery to opt out of his contract just to pursue a fresh start elsewhere. If the latter, the tactic obviously didn’t work, and Nightengale writes that “the Diamondbacks are shopping [Montgomery] everywhere” to try and move that salary off the books.
A Montgomery-for-Bellinger trade is fascinating for several reasons, beginning with the simple fact that they were both members of the so-called “Boras Four.” Along with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, Montgomery and Bellinger were both represented by agent Scott Boras last offseason, and all four players ended up settling for shorter-term contracts with opt-out after lengthy stints in free agency didn’t result in the lucrative longer-term pacts each player was looking to score. It should be noted that Chapman and Snell have now found such contracts in the last few months — Chapman via his extension with the Giants and Snell’s new five-year deal with the Dodgers.
From a pure baseball perspective, swapping Montgomery for Bellinger helps the D’Backs and Cubs each address some needs. Bellinger would bring offense to an Arizona team that might be losing Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk in free agency, and Bellinger could slot right in as a replacement for Walker at first base. While Bellinger’s left-handed bat would further imbalance a Diamondbacks lineup that is already heavy with lefty swingers, Bellinger’s ability to play the outfield could make the D’Backs more comfortable in trading one of their in-house left-handed hitting outfielders. Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas are the likeliest trade candidates, since obviously Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere.
The Diamondbacks have a rotation surplus that is also drawing trade interest, and moving Montgomery to the Cubs would help Chicago bolster the back of its rotation. Matthew Boyd was recently signed to join Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon in the Cubs’ starting five, and though Javier Assad is lined up for that fifth starter’s job, the Cubs are reportedly open to more additions in the starting pitching department. Trading for Montgomery would give Chicago its own semi-surplus of rotation options that could be turned into trade chips, and also move Bellinger out of the Cub’ crowded outfield and first base situation.
Despite his rough 2024 numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montgomery rebound to his old self now that he’ll have the benefit of a normal offseason. It’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a popular bounce-back candidate in trade talks if it wasn’t for the $22.5MM price tag, as rival teams might not want to make quite that big of a bet that Montgomery can regain his old form.
The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees have all shown some degree of interest in Bellinger, and New York in particular could emerge as a stronger suitor if the team doesn’t re-sign Juan Soto. Even if the numbers haven’t matched up to date for the Cubs in finding a trade partner for Bellinger, this active market could be a reason why the Cubs are aiming a bit higher in their pursuits than perhaps settling for Montgomery in a swap of unfavorable contracts.
While Bellinger might yet opt out after 2025, the Diamondbacks would be facing the bigger financial burden in taking on two years of salary in exchange for Montgomery’s final remaining year. After the 2025 season, however, a good deal of money is coming off Arizona’s books, as Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly are all free agents next winter. That could make fitting Bellinger into the 2026 payroll a bit more palatable for the Snakes.