As we approach the one-quarter point, could the team have done better?
This was a topic which cropped up in the comments over the weekend, and was also something I promised to check in on, when we signed Joc Pederson in January. This winter, the D-backs were the biggest players they have been in the free agent market for a long time. They signed three of MLB Trade Rumors top fourteen free agents: Jordan Montgomery (#6), Eduardo Rodriguez (#11), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr (#14), in addition to Pederson and dealing for Eugenio Suarez. All told, that’s almost $70 million added to the team’s payroll in free agency and trades during the off-season, taking them into the top half of teams for the first full season since 2014. But could the money have been spent better?
Let’s take a look at how the players have performed and also alternatives.
DH: Joc Pederson
We’ll start with this one, because we had the most clear-cut candidates for the team before they eventually settled on Pederson. It’s also far and away the best news, so let’s start on an upbeat note! Below you’ll find the performance so far of Joc and the four other players who were generally regarded as the other candidates for Arizona at designated hitter. WAR is the average of bWAR and fWAR.
As I worked through this, I realized that it’s very difficult to come up with an “accurate” number for how much a player is costing his team in 2024. Should we include deferred amounts? J.D. Martinez is technically only costing the Mets $4.5 million this year. What about options? Signing bonuses? Incentives? When it comes to estimating price, I’ve tried to take all these somewhat into account: basically, I split signing bonuses over the duration of a contract, include any deferments, but exclude options and incentives. Still, take all salary figures above as approximate.
So far, Pederson has been comfortably the best of the candidates. currently on pace for about a 3.5 win season. That may not be sustainable – it would be a career-high for Joc. But he has delivered everything you could want, and together with platoon partner Randal Grichuk, has turned the DH position from a weakness into a strength. Last season, the D-backs ranked 27th by OPS at that spot, posting just .678. This year, they trailed only the Dodgers, with a stunning line of .344/.446/.590 for a 1.036 OPS. Again: not sustainable. But it’s a heck of lot better, not just than last year, than the other candidates thus far. Only Justin Turner, in Toronto, has been other than severely disappointing.
3B: Eugenio Suarez
At the other end of the spectrum is Suarez. The situation here is a little different, because he’s the only one who cost more than just cash, being traded from Seattle for pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala. But Arizona had to take on about $11.3 million in salary for Suarez, along with a team option for next year, at $15m or a $2m buyout. Right now, the latter seems more likely. Suarez has a disappointing 78 OPS+ and 0.2 WAR. Even if the D-backs had given up nothing at all (and Vargas is more likely to be productive than Zavala in the long run), that would still be underwhelming. Arizona’s OPS at the hot corner was bad in 2023, and has actually dropped. It was .644 last year, but has been .601.
The free-agent market at third this year was light, which does explain why Mike Hazen went the trade route instead. Jeimer Candelario got three years, $45 million from the Reds, but has been below replacement level. Matt Chapman got 3/$54m from the Giants, but the metrics differ sharply: bWAR has him at a respectable 0.7, but fWAR has him barely positive at 0.1. Hard to say he has been worth the money, and while Suarez has been bad, there were not many better alternatives available in free-agency. However, in hindsight, Isiah Kiner-Falefa would have been better than Suarez, putting up 0.6 WAR after signing a two-year deal with the Blue Jays which is worth $15 million.
SP: Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez
This is difficult to analyze, because of the 35 games played by the D-backs so far, only three have been by the pair of off-season signings. We’re still very much in the small sample size period for Montgomery: after opening with a pair of quality starts, he got blasted last time out, and now has a 5.63 ERA, roughly in line with his FIP (5.34). That’s basically between Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry in ERA, with a worse FIP than both prospects: not exactly what you want for your $25 million. Rodriguez, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch since March 19th, and might get into a throwing program this week. Hard to see him in the majors before the middle of June, even if all goes well, as he’ll need to get lengthened out.
Rodriguez got a four-year $80 million deal from the D-backs, and there are certainly players on similar contracts who have performed better so far. The most obvious is Shōta Imanaga, who got 5/85 from the Cubs and is 5-0 with a 0.78 ERA for them so far. That won’t last but his FIP is 2.23, and it seems like Chicago may have got a steal at that price. Seth Lugo is another one who has started very well: he signed for 3/45 with the Royals and is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA. But it could be worse as well. Blake Snell got a monster $62 million deal for just two seasons from San Francisco. But he had an 11.57 ERA over his first three starts and is now on the injured list with a strained adductor muscle.
OF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
This is an example of how quickly things can change. After Arizona’s fifteenth game, Gurriel was arguably the team’s MVP, having hit .317/.369/.567 for a .936 OPS. But it was then as if the OFF switch was flicked on his productivity, going .178/.211/.260 since. Which is the real Lourdes? As ever, the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. On a cursory check, I’d lean towards the former, as that had a BABIP closer to normal, than we’ve seen during the slump (.319 vs. .203). But it has dragged his overall value down to 0.4 WAR, on pace for only about two wins this year. While that wouldn’t be a disaster, it would be a downturn on last year and, turning 31 in October, not augur well for the remaining two years on his contract.
However, the team could have done less with their $14 million cost. The Rockies re-signed Charlie Blackmon for $13 million, and he has already been worth -0.4 WAR. Then again: that’s Colorado, not exactly known for smart decision-making. The big ticket outfielder of the winter, Cody Bellinger (3/80 from the Cubs), is on the IL and has been worth about the same as Gurriel. But a few million more might have got Arizona Teoscar Hernandez, who is already north of one WAR for Los Angeles. However, that’s an exception, and it feels like most of the outfielders who signed for $10 million this season or more, are doing little if any better than Gurriel.