Merrill the Mainstay takes a page out of Jordan Montgomery’s book and heads to the Texas Rangers in a deadline deal no one wanted to see but that needed to happen.
Merrill Kelly is quite possibly one of the very best pickups Mike Hazen has made during his time in charge in Arizona. In a tenure where terrible pitching signings are more common than they probably should be, Merrill Kelly stands out as not just a decent signing, but a damn good one at that. Since Mike Hazen plucked Kelly out of the KBO, in 2019, he has been better than league average in every season save the 110-loss 2021, where everything went wrong for Arizona all at once. 2025 marked Kelly’s seventh season in the desert. It may also be his best season (either this one or 2023 is best).
He is, however, a free agent at the end of the season. With the Diamondbacks’ season now effectively over, finding a return for expiring contracts became a priority. Kelly represented one of the very best starting pitchers on the trade market that was also on an expiring contract. Not until late into deadline day when the Padres tentatively floated Dylan Cease was there an expiring contract starter that looked more appealing on the market, including struggling teammate Zac Gallen. Despite Kelly’s bonafides, the market for Kelly never really seemed to come together. Boston instead turned to Steven Matz and Dustin May, then took a quick but ineffective pass at Joe Ryan. The Cubs opted to get innings filler for the rotation and to focus on strengthening their bullpen rather than starting pitching (the same strategy employed by nearly every playoff contending team in the league this year).
The cold, harsh reality was, most teams simply were not interested in rental starting pitching. Both Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, had they been healthy, would almost certainly have crushed any potential return that Merrill Kelly was able to bring back, much less the one he did bring. Plain and simple, the new, expanded playoffs that are essentially a short tournament format pushes teams towards relief pitching, where teams can shorten games to three to five innings and then let the specialist relievers carve away the rest of the game.
Merrill Kelly (RHSP) to the Texas Rangers for Kohl Drake (LHP/#9), Mitch Bratt (LHP/#14), and David Hagaman (RHP/#16)
Despite what some local cheerleading pundits would like to claim, the Arizona Diamondbacks did not get back three future starters in the Merrill Kelly trade. The likelihood is that they got back three relievers, though two of the arms still look like they might have promise as mid-rotation starters. One of those two will certainly begin as a starter, but they may well find themselves pushed to the bullpen down the line. There will be plenty out there who complain that Arizona should have sweetened the pot some to increase the return, or accepted a single player in return instead of three. The reality is, Texas has a garbage farm system and the players that were better in that system don’t fit AZ or were simply not available without Arizona emptying their own mediocre farm. Still, the return for Kelly is fairly robust given the lack of market for rental starters. However, rather than focusing on all the negatives here, let’s look at what the team did get and then look at how the additions might or might not be anything of note.
Kohl Drake enters the Arizona pipeline as the highest-ranked pitching prospect in the organization. That includes adding the recently drafted Patrick Forbes to the list. Though the updated Arizona prospect list won’t drop until tomorrow, Kohl ranks #3 in the organization. Of all the pitchers acquired in deadline deals, Kohl represents the pitcher most likely to remain a starter. While Kohl has no true standout pitch, what he does bring is something that many of the other pitchers acquired lack – command. Kohl’s command is already solidly above average and he is still improving. He brings that command to all four of his pitches, all of which rate as average or better. Drake is another big-bodied pitching prospect. Pitching from the left side, Drake has good deception on his fastball despite its somewhat flat approach. This is due to how well Drake conceals the ball behind his back during the delivery. Drake’s velocity has continued to trend upward, despite this being his third year as a professional and him already being 25. When he was drafted, he averaged in the 92-93 mph range. Now, Drake is fairly consistently 94-95. He has a curve that is his best secondary that has a hard two-plane break. HIs changeup that he uses to get righties out has a full 10 miles per hour of separation from his fastball. Because of his level fastball, Drake works better up in the zone, around the letter. Down lower, he gets hit hard. This requires Drake to be careful with misses inside the zone, as pitches up tend to go into the seats if the batter catches up to them. Drake had some issues in AA ball with walks. Those issues seemed mostly to come from missing too high when trying to avoid contact, not from being wild around the plate. This is not a bad bit of awareness from the pitcher to know where his strengths lie and to continue leaning on them. After dominating in AA this season, Drake has only recently been promoted to AAA, where he was in the PCL for Texas as well. In four games there (one start) Drake has managed to hold his own. Drake’s stuff profiles him as a #4 pitcher in the Majors. However, his command and control could see him push up a bit higher and be a capable #3, able to eat innings in big swaths – all this despite not having any one true standout pitch, not unlike the man he was traded for, Merrill Kelly. Given how late it is in the season and that Drake was only recently promoted to AAA, it seems unlikely Arizona fans will see him in Sedona Red this season. He should, however, be ready to compete for a slot in the rotation when pitchers and catchers report. It would not be at all surprising to see Drake as the team’s #4/5 starter come opening day. Then again, it would not shock to see him take a slightly longer on-ramp and not debut until around mid-season. Much of that is going to depend on how he adapts to the change of environment.
Mitch Bratt is another pitcher whose stuff plays up better than it has any right to. Again, like with Drake, this is because of superior command. Yet, while Drake has strong command that is improving and quite impressive, Bratt has pinpoint command. Bratt dots all of his pitches wherever he wants to in and around the zone. Bratt’s problem is that of his five pitches, only his cutter is truly an above average pitch. Another lefty, Bratt does not throw with nearly the power of fellow trade chip, Drake. Bratt’s fastball lives in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 94. He plays this up by putting it wherever he wants in the upper part of the zone. Like Drake, Bratt has seen his velocity slowly creeping upward, where 94 is becoming more common. Bratt also features a changeup, a curve, a slider, and a cutter, though the difference between the slider and cutter can become difficult to differentiate sometimes. This is less the result of his cutter being slider-ish like it is with many pitchers and more the result of Bratt having a great feel for changing the shape and run of all his pitches. Bratt has the ability to throw a traditional slider, a sweeper slider, and a cutting slider, and is able to fill the zone with all three. If, and it is admittedly a very big if, Bratt is able to maintain this increase in velocity while continuing to hone his secondaries, he stops profiling as a future swingman and becomes a solid #3 prospect. That is going to take some significant work from Arizona’s pitching development crew, which is where plenty of concern creeps in. Bratt is not going to blow the doors off of anyone. Nor is he going to put up dazzling results. What he does bring is a strikeout to walk ratio pushing up against seven. That will play just about anywhere. If he is unable to stick in the rotation due to lack of velocity, he’s a steady, solid arm that can be relied upon in the bullpen. This season should see Bratt reach around 23-25 starts and reach around 120-130 innings pitched. Bratt just turned 22 last month and could be poised to make his debut as a starter for the Diamondbacks at just age 23. Even if he takes a bit of time to adjust to AAA-Reno next season, there is every reason to expect that he will make some sort of MLB debut sometime in 2026. He’ll be Rule-5 eligible this December, so the team will be adding him to the 40-man roster. That will clear one hurdle for Bratt. From there, it is merely a matter of finding where he fits best. Of the pitchers received at the deadline, Bratt likely has the widest range of successful outcomes, a range that will be entirely informed by how his stuff plays up once he heads to Reno.
David Hagaman is not the sort of prospect that is ever going to fly up the organization’s prospect rankings. But then, not every player acquired in trades can always fit into the top 10-15 players. Hagaman has the stuff to be a starter, molded around his 94-96 mph fastball that touches 98 frequently. He works off that pitch with a mid-80s slider. He also features an 85 mph change, giving him good velocity separation from his fastball. At 6’4”, 215 pounds, with a high waist, Hagaman has all the desired physical features of a starter at the highest level. The question marks most readily surround his endurance, and whether or not his pitches will continue to play the way they do once he starts being asked to throw multiple innings with regularity. Hagaman was on track to be a high draft pick in the 2024 draft. However, internal brace surgery right before the draft dropped him considerably and Texas took a flyer on a hidden gem. It is not a foregone conclusion that Hagaman is a reliever. However, coming back from surgery, his innings were limited this season and he will likely end the season 30 or so innings pitched, perhaps a tick higher. He is only 22 and will likely land in A+ Hillsboro, though he might stay in Visalia until 2026. That said, stretching Hagaman out and getting him back to a starter’s workload that will hold up over a season will be a long process and holds little in the way of assurances of being successful. If Arizona is able to stretch him out without a loss of stuff, he’s still likely four full seasons removed from joining the rotation. However, given Hagaman’s limited repertoire and his ability to bring the heat with two pitches in traditional late-inning reliever fashion, Hagaman joining the 26-man roster as a power righty reliever is probably a 2.5 season process. There is no reason for Arizona to rush to that sort of development. But it should certainly remain an option on the table and be considered sooner rather than later. Hagaman could be an effective addition to the bullpen and Arizona lacks pitchers with his power profile in the system.
While the hoped-for return from a trade of Merrill Kelly might have been somewhat higher, it is difficult to find fault with the upside that Mike Hazen did manage to get – especially given how bereft of impact talent the Texas farm is and how few teams showed true, bidding interest in Kelly. It is far from inconceivable that both Drake and Bratt could develop into pitchers that are as good or better than Kelly has been since his return from Korea. It is also quite possible the team has three new relievers who will all be on their way out by the end of 2028. Such is the nature of making trade. The most likely outcome beyond busting seems to be that Arizona has themselves a future with a decent lefty swingman and two modest impact relievers. For two months of Merrill Kelly, that’s fairly impressive .Now, it is up to Arizona’s pitching gurus to unlock all the potential that was acquired. That though, is an entirely different problem.