Now to take a (very late) look at the one move most expected that was not made by Mike Hazen and the Diamondbacks
I certainly hope Mike Hazen has some thick skin and an awful lot of suntan lotion. The amount of flack Mike Hazen is getting from the Arizona fans, local media, armchair GMs, and even nationally famous pundits for not moving Zac Gallen on deadline day is overwhelming to the point of near absurdity. Hazen has been questioned repeatedly about the subject in the past 36 hours or so. His reasons have been met largely with a rolling of the eyes. That may or may not be fair, but it is certainly further indication of the general consensus of Hazen’s deadline day performance. In fact, the perceived failure to move Gallen (and potentially others) on deadline day has even resulted in the Diamondbacks making appearances on some of the “deadline day losers” lists.
Most of Hazen’s public reasoning can be found in the following comments he has made since the deadline.
“Trading Zac Gallen to say that I traded Zac Gallen and moved him out of here, I don’t feel good about that,” Hazen said.
“Having Zac Gallen in our rotation versus just trading him because I could say that I traded him for somebody in A-ball somewhere, I just didn’t I feel like that was the right decision to make.”
In a vacuum, this seems somewhat fair. Even filling the vacuum some, the move of Shelby Miller to unload some of Jordan Montgomery’s salary off the books is further condemnation that Hazen should have done more. After all, if the team wants to save money to restock this winter, moving Gallen saves them more than the Miller/Montgomery deal did. But, despite this season’s unpleasant reminder that baseball is indeed a business venture, saving some money is not everything.
Why Zac Gallen remaining in Arizona is not a bad thing
There are numerous reasons, both subtle and overt, that make Zac Gallen’s continued presence on the roster a good thing. Let’s start with the most obvious of obvious reasons.
*The Diamondbacks need a starter for the rotation
To say that the Arizona rotation has been stretched thin to the point of tearing would be an understatement. At the time of the trade deadline, the rotation contained the following arms:
Zac Gallen
Merrill Kelly
Brandon Pfaadt
Ryne Nelson
Eduardo Rodriguez
The starting depth beyond five was on display last night, making a start in place of the traded Merrill Kelly. That start was taken by Anthony DeSclafani, a pitcher who should consider himself fortunate to have a Major League job. After Tony Disco though, it gets even worse.
Starting pitching depth in AAA-Reno that is not on the IL:
Bryce Jarvis
The closest thing to a potential MLB starter currently found in Reno and not on the IL is probably Yu-Min Lin, followed closely (or perhaps even exceeded by) the recently acquired Kohl Drake, who is still not MLB-ready. Yu-Min Lin has found the jump from AA to AAA a steep one. With each passing week on the calendar, he is looking more and more like a future reliever. I did list Bryce Jarvis above. Many still feel he is destined long-term to being a reliever. Even if he is able to reliably pitch more than two innings at a go at the MLB level though, that simply means he is the Merrill Kelly fill-in and that he is still unavailable to help replace the lost Gallen innings.
From the starting five listed, the Diamondbacks traded away Merrill Kelly, opening up one hole in the rotation. Ryne Nelson will almost certainly have his innings monitored the rest of the way in order to avoid a repeat of last season. Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are wildly inconsistent right now, giving anywhere from three innings to seven innings of work each outing, depending on luck and other factors. Removing Zac Gallen opens up a second hole in the rotation. Trading away Kelly already created a need for ~50 more innings of starting pitching. Adding a Gallen trade would double that to ~100 innings that need to be found.
The organization simply does not have anything close to that kind of production waiting to be tapped into. The team would essentially be tossing a 9-inning bullpen game for 40% of the remainder of the season. Given that the team has a lack of arms that can be relied upon to go even as far as only two innings of work at the MLB level, where are those innings coming from? The team’s bullpen is already overworked. The depth in Reno is suspect at the very best. There are simply not enough relief arm innings to cover the extra workload that would be created by losing those 100 innings. The current bullpen would be overburdened even more than the mediocre, inconsistent rotation already has it and the replacement pitchers would then be throwing until their arms fell off. That’s simply no way to run an organization.
Not only does that destroy the arms that would be working, but it stunts the development of everyone taking the field. The likes of Lawlar and Locklear and others need competitive first-team reps if they are going to be ready to help this team in 2026 and beyond. Throwing up the white flag and refusing to field a team that could at least compete with the likes of the White Sox and Rockies for two out of four games will not help any player develop into their MLB potential.
*Just getting something/anything is not nearly enough
I’m acknowledging the elephant in the room right up front here. Zac Gallen has the worst ERA among qualified starters this season. By Fangraphs’ metrics, Gallen is sporting an ERA- of 133, making him a full third worse than league average. That ERA, combined with a balky hamstring, and what has come across to many as quite the attitude problem , makes Zac Gallen a difficult pitcher to watch or to have anywhere on the team’s roster – most especially for the fans.
Spending even a few cursory moments examining Gallen’s overall numbers though, it is not difficult to see that Gallen has, despite his issues, also been unlucky this year. A somewhat deeper dive shows that Gallen has not changed much of anything and that most of the rate stats are holding pretty steady. The one thing that has changed is that Gallen’s curve ball, the pitch he has used to great effect for the past three years, has suddenly been getting hit more. The shape and velocity are still there, but the location is not. This becomes worse when looking at the approach batters are taking against Gallen. Hitters, aware of Gallen’s reliance on his curve, are now sitting on it more than ever. Then, if/when he misses his spot, it is being crushed.
If one goes back and watches Gallen’s last 7-10 starts, one pattern will recur over and over. Gallen’s starts tend to be punctuated by one bad inning. If Gallen is able to navigate the dangers of a particularly rough inning with minimal damage, he tends to turn in a good outing. When that one inning gets away, the entire game does. Frustratingly, it is not consistently the first inning or Gallen’s final inning. From game-to-game, Gallen’s “bad inning” shifts all over the place. Just the slightest bit more consistency and Gallen returns to being the Gallen of 2022-2024.
A pitcher with that sort of profile, combined with Gallen’s previously established pedigree gives him value. When combined with an extreme need for more than two innings of pitching coverage every five days, and suddenly Gallen has even more value. Only two weeks ago, Gallen still looked like a pitcher likely to receive a qualifying offer this winter. If that were to happen and he were to walk, the Diamondbacks would be in line for draft pick compensation. That compensation would be reliant upon what size contract Gallen signed. If the contract is worth $50 million or more, the Diamondbacks will pick at the end of the first round around the 30th pick, as they did with the compensation they received for losing Christian Walker. If the contract is under $50 million, the Diamondbacks get a pick after the second round, around #70.
These potential outcomes need to be considered when moving a starter like Gallen. If the value of the return from a trade “just to unload him” does not exceed the value of the expected draft pick compensation (and associated bonus pool money) then it makes little sense to trade Gallen. Trades need to do one of two things at a minimum; increase the team’s longer-term value, or cut team expenses by saving payroll. Plenty more can come from trades, but at least one of those two things should apply to all of them.
There is an argument to be made (and it has been made quite loudly by many) that tendering Gallen a qualifying offer is nuts. Gallen’s mediocre results on the season, coupled with the ignominy of having the worst qualified ERA screams to many that he should be allowed to simply walk without even considering giving him a qualified offer. This does tend to ignore the previous several seasons of strong work, or that the upcoming free agent pitching market is dreadful. Even this terrible version of Gallen slots as one of the five-to-seven best starters on the market. Even the slightest uptick in performance over the stretch run will only increase that standing. The market is there for pitchers capable of throwing 160 innings in a season to clean up. Also to be considered, Zac Gallen is a Scott Boras client. Boras tends to push his clients to turn down the qualifying offer if they get one. It is though, still the player’s call. This means that Gallen might still accept the qualifying offer if one is made.
Let me be very clear here. If there is no intention of tendering Gallen a qualifying offer, then Hazen and company did not do enough to find an innings-eater to get Gallen off the roster “for something”.
On the flip-side of things, there are many that are worried that, not only will Hazen tender the offer, but that Zac Gallen might accept it to try and make good and return to the market in a stronger position than he will this year.
Why Zac Gallen accepting a qualifying offer would not necessarily be a bad thing at all
A bit of context needs to be established to frame this thesis. For starters, the team is at an all-time high when it comes to payroll this season, results be damned. Granted, that exp;loding payroll brought Corbin Burnes to the team and allowed the Diamondbacks to extend some players identified as core contributors to the future. But in the end, results do matter and the team simply has not found those results this year. Much of that is due to injury, but not all of it. Ken Kendrick, while being more generous of late, is still not among the wealthy owners in baseball and is known to become ultra-miserly at the drop of a Sedona Red hat. With that in mind, it is worth noting that, the combined savings of the moves made at the deadline come in around $18 million for the remainder of the season. That’s a whole year of league average service for a player.
This winter, the Diamondbacks are going to have to be very active in free agency. Short of some sort of trade haul extravaganza, the Diamondbacks do not currently have the personnel to field a 26-man roster in 2026. This will include needing to find a minimum of one full-time starter, but likely two and potentially three, especially given how rare it is to get through a full season (for any team) on fewer than seven starters. Some of this could be mitigated by an offseason reunion with Merill Kelly. That, however, is far from assured at this point and, even on a hometown discount, Kelly will not be coming back cheaply.
The cost of free agents in general has climbed significantly since COVID-19. Pitching costs more now than it ever did before. One need look no further than the recent extension of Seth Lugo in Kansas City (a deal considered team-friendly) to see that at work. These days, pillow contracts for pitchers inferior to Gallen are going for $12-14 million and those are going to pitchers without any of Gallen’s past successes. And, while it is important to pay for the future and not the past, the past is going to inform the future. No free agent starting pitcher that is as good as Gallen or better is signing a one-year deal. They certainly are not doing so for anything less than the estimated $20-21 million value of next year’s qualifying offer.
Of the upcoming free agent pitchers who will rank below Zac Gallen, those with any upside are still going to want multiple year contracts for an AAV in the vicinity of $16 million, the soft going-rate for a marginally bang average starter. Jack Sommers published a piece about Arizona’s upcoming payroll issue and the impending free agency market. It can be found here. The quick and dirty is that Arizona, if they maintain current spending levels, has approximately $50 million to spend in free agency this winter. That’s a decent figure, but not nearly as much as it seems when considering the team’s need for regular players instead of part-time role players. If the Diamondbacks end up spending $20 million on Gallen alone, that does not leave much left for the other team needs.
It can be strenuously argued that there will be no larger team need than starting pitching. With Jordan Lawlar, LuJames Groover, and the newly acquired Tyler Locklear all MLB-ready or near-ready to be added to the 26-man roster, with depth of Pavin Smith, Blaze Alexander, Tim Tawa, and others, the team has real incentive to not spend much on adding to the 26-man roster infield. With Lourdes Gurriel, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and Corbin Carroll all still slated for the outfield in 2026, there is some concern the team needs an upgrade there. Luckily for Arizona, Jordan Lawlar, Tommy Troy, Tim Tawa, Pavin Smith, and others provide some depth. Meanwhile, low-cost outfield additions on a one or two-year deal are rather easily found. The team may need to look for yet another DH in 2026. However, those too can be picked up by being inexpensively creative. Setting aside $10 million to find a creative way to address the outfield/DH issue is a sane approach and in line with the past few seasons. That would leave roughly $40 million to spend on finding two MLB-capable starters. It is expected that Arizona will make a strong run at bringing back Merrill Kelly. That contract will almost certainly be a 3-year deal to allow Kelly to ensure he gets his stated wish of reaching 10 years of MLB service. Because of that length, Kelly might be had for as little as $`15-18 million per season, but it does not seem terribly likely at this point, given the current market. At $20 million, the deal likely gets done, but it is still not guaranteed. The cost of Gallen and Kelly combined likely lands somewhere in the $38-42 million range for 2026.
A qualifying offer is a one year deal with no further obligations. This makes Gallen a rental player at the deadline. Even as a marginally league average pitcher, he’ll have essentially the same deadline value or more than he did this year. That means there will be some wiggle room to move him in July if the team once again needs to retool or save some money. Also, there is another incentive for signing Gallen to a one-year deal, an incentive that is painful to think on, but one that must be taken into account.
There is every indication that there will be yet another lockout that eats into or wipes out (the former seems more likely) the 2027 season. For this reason, filling one of the rotation holes with a known quantity one-year contract has extra appeal. The contract expires before the lockout. Later seasons are not lost to the lockout. Also, the team then comes out of the lockout with a clean slate. No one wants to offer a starting pitcher multiple years with that sort of uncertainty on the horizon. An accepted qualifying offer helps Gallen rebuild his value and it helps the Diamondbacks avoid the unwanted extra years.
Doing some very rudimentary math, the Diamondbacks are able to bring back Merrill Kelly on a three-year deal, one that does not come without risk, but which will make the fans happy and give insurance to the rotation while Arizona continues to develop the starters of the future (or to find them via trade) and to also bring back Zac Gallen on a one-year deal that has little risk beyond the money to it. If Gallen is as bad next season as he has been this season, the team is really no worse off. That seems unlikely though, given Gallen’s much larger track record of success. The biggest reason to think Gallen may struggle next year is that we do not currently know what the pitching coach situation is going to look like. There are also some who seem to believe that Gallen’s arm is toast, that he is washed up as a starter. This last part I disagree with. Gallen’s peripheral numbers, velocity, and four-out-of-six good innings per start right now all suggest Gallen still has plenty in the tank. But damn, does he need to get out of his head and to find someone who can work with him to identify where he is going wrong.
Gallen is going to be motivated to find his lost self next season. It will be his last chance to prove he deserves his one big deal. He is not that far removed from substantial success and current outings indicate that particular pitcher is still in there to be rediscovered. The team needs another 160 IP starter. The other options to be had all come with some combination of; less of a history of success, significant injury concerns, a more advanced age, longer contract commitments, even worse recent results, and higher potential AAV.
Beyond the simple, fans are annoyed because they want better and they feel slighted by Gallen, there is not much to be said for failing to give Gallen a qualifying offer. If it comes to pass that a qualifying offer is tendered and rejected, Arizona is in the very same position that they are now. No return for Gallen at the deadline would change that – not today, not three years from now. If a qualifying offer is tendered and Gallen accepts, that could sneakily end up being the savvy one-year contract that helps Arizona bridge the gap between where they are now and the arrival of their developing starters, combined with the return of Corbin Burnes (assuming he does not opt-out).
In short, the Diamondbacks need a 160 IP starter. They would really be better off if said starter were on a one-year contract, given the state of their rotation and the timeline for other remedies. The pitchers that fit that bill all fall short of having anywhere close to the upside of Gallen. This, today, is likely Gallen at his worst until his arm really does finally give up. The other side of that coin is that Gallen could also give the team a 10-game streak of excellence and make 2026 look better than it is currently slated to. Upside is always nice and the other pitchers in the same bucket lack any of that upside. Those are the type of pitchers that one hopes holds on long enough to remain a qualified starter at the end of the season.
If Zac Gallen is tendered a qualifying offer and accepts, it will come with many rolled eyes and many fans swearing and gnashing their teeth. It will come with frustration and irritation. It might also be the best possible outcome for an Arizona team in extreme flux that is almost a full year away from getting back difference makers like Corbin Burnes and Justin Martinez. The team should not simply write off 2026 entirely. This would help them avoid doing so. The risk in making that deal is far less about dollar-cost or opportunity. The biggest risk is an emotional one and how the fans will react to a struggling Gallen that has rubbed so many the wrong way returning for one more year. I’d rather struggle like that with at least a hint of a chance at finding some success than move forward without the “risk” or struggle, knowing that the team will not be playing another meaningful game until 2027, which is a very real risk the team runs without finding two more starters (in addition to Kelly). Gallen fits the bill. It may be a frustrating fit, but it is a fit.