3:10pm: The Rangers have also been informed that they are out of the running, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Diamondbacks never got a meeting with Sasaki and won’t be the destination either, per John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix.
2:56pm: The Mets have also been informed that they are out of the running, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
2:35pm: The Yankees have been told that right-hander Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. That’s the second team that is reportedly out, with the Giants having also been told that they won’t be Sasaki’s destination. Andy Martino of SNY adds that the Mets aren’t expected to sign him either, though it’s unclear if they have been given a clear denial like the Giants and Yankees. As for teams that are still in the mix, Sasaki reportedly met with the Padres in San Diego recently, per a report from Dennis Lin, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This was after his recent meeting with the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Sasaki has been on the radar of MLB clubs for years, but his situation became very interesting once it became clear that he would be coming over to North America this winter. Since he is not yet 25 years old, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s international signing rules. That makes a massive difference in his earning power and opens him up to potentially sign with any club.
Per the international bonus pool system, each club has a limit on how much signing bonus money they can give to international amateurs, with this year’s pools ranging from $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the large-market clubs have the smaller pools and vice versa. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t add more than 60% of their initial pool allotment.
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s Nippon Professional Baseball club, will also be owed a posting fee. However, the value of that fee will be a percentage of his signing bonus and won’t be a large number either. Per the NPB posting rules, the fee is 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. Since Sasaki will be capped by the pool system, his deal will lead to a modest bonus, with the posting fee adding 20%.
Had Sasaki waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional and could have signed a deal for any amount. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto took, eventually securing a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.
It can be debated as to who is the better pitcher between Yamamoto and Sasaki, but the point is that there’s tremendous upside in getting Sasaki aboard for such a small investment. Teams that normally don’t sign top free agents can become theoretical fits, while the larger clubs have big payrolls and competitive balance tax concerns, making them very interested as well.
By coming to North America now, Sasaki has seemingly illustrated that maximizing his short-term earnings is not his top priority. Since each club has roughly the same ability to offer him a bonus now, he should be focused on non-financial criteria for making his decision. It could come down to geography, a club’s reputation developing pitching or perhaps a team’s long-term competitive outlook. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said the plan was for teams to make pitches before the holidays. Sasaki would then travel to visit the home cities of certain clubs after the holidays.
A decision needs to come soon. Sasaki can’t officially sign until January 15 when the new pool year starts, but he also has to be signed by January 23, when his posting window closes. Now that there’s only a handful of days left, it seems he is narrowing the field.
The Yankees and Mets both reportedly met with Sasaki in December but it seems that he won’t be coming to New York to join either club. Both teams already have plenty of rotation options, though they surely would have welcomed the problem of adding Sasaki into the mix and further crowding things. The Yankees are already feel good enough about their pitching depth that they are reportedly shopping Marcus Stroman.
Perhaps signing Sasaki wouldn’t have added too much to the urgency to trade Stroman. MLB teams often use six-man rotations when folding in a Japanese pitcher, as the NPB usually sees starters throw once a week as opposed to the five-day rotation in North America. It’s a moot point now but the Yanks still project to start the year with a strong group that includes Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, which is why Stroman’s available.
The Mets have more uncertainty in their rotation but still have plenty of arms to potentially fill out their rotation. Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill are all possibilities. There are question marks with many of those names but that’s eight viable candidates of varying degrees for five rotation spots.
Many observers have considered the Dodgers and the Padres to be the two most likely landing spots, so it’s not especially surprising that San Diego is still in the mix. No one can be sure what Sasaki’s priorities are, but it’s been suggested that the club’s West Coast location and strong performance in recent years are points in their favor, as well as Sasaki’s friendship with Yu Darvish.
As pointed out by The Athletic and others, the Padres could probably use Sasaki more than any other club. They have known financial constraints but plenty of holes to fill, which is why players like Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Jake Cronenworth and Robert Suarez have been in trade rumors this winter. Adding a pitcher of Sasaki’s caliber at such a discounted rate would be tremendously helpful for them.
As of right now, the rotation projects to include Darvish, Cease and Michael King, with plenty of question marks beyond that. Adding Sasaki would give the Padres a very strong front four, but it could also perhaps increase the chances of the Friars trading Cease for players that are cheaper and more controllable but less proven.
It’s still anyone’s guess what team will be chosen by Sasaki and why. As mentioned, the Jays are still a possibility, based on Sasaki’s recent trip to Toronto. The Padres are obviously in there as well. The Athletic mentions the Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Mariners are clubs that are thought to be in the mix. It’s unknown if Sasaki will visit with any of those other clubs but resolution is coming soon, with more information perhaps trickling out in the coming days.