Anybody need an All-Star?
Eugenio Suarez probably represents the most useful player on the D-backs, in terms of trade value. Indeed, there’s a case to be made that he’s among the most useful available anywhere this trade deadline. I mean, he was an All-Star just two days ago – and not those “Well, I suppose we have to have somebody from the Rockies…” All-Stars. He’s one of only four players to have hit more than thirty home-runs this year. The other three – Cal Raleigh, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani – are certainly not going to be available at the trade deadline. Sure, he comes with issues in strikeouts and defense. But he hit four home-runs in a game! I repeat: HE HIT FOUR HOME-RUNS IN A GAME!!!!
You should, of course, read the above slightly tongue in cheek, and as more as a sales pitch than any deep analysis of Suarez’s merits. But he probably doesn’t need to be talked up much, with the likelihood being that Mike Hazen is getting more calls about the availability of Eugenio than any other player. So let’s look at who might need him most. As with yesterday’s piece on Josh Naylor, to find the most likely suitors, we start by looking at teams currently above .500, and who have a third-base position which is below average in terms of production, as measured by bWAR.
The candidates
Below are the six teams with winning records, whose third-base production has been worst (by bWAA), along with their current post-season odds, per Fangraphs.
- Cincinnati Reds: 50-47. -1.6 bWAA, 10.8%
- Chicago Cubs: 57-39, -0.7 bWAA. 93.7%
- New York Mets: 55-42, -0.5 bWAA, 85.0%
- St. Louis Cardinals: 51-46, -0.1 bWAA, 28.1%
- Philadelphia Phillies: 55-41, -0.1 bWAA, 91.7%
- New York Yankees, 53-43, 0.1 bWAA, 88.7%
It is worth noting that Suarez would be helpful for other teams. The D-backs are at +1.5 bWAA at the hot corner, behind only four teams. So you could also throw Milwaukee (+0.3), Seattle (+0.4), Toronto (+0.7) and even the Astros (+1.2) in there, as teams for whom Suarez would be an upgrade. But I’m going to stick with the half-dozen mentioned above. Happily, the Reds are the only ones who carry over from the Naylor piece – otherwise, it’s five new suitors with whom we can check in. But let’s start with Cincinnati.
Hello again, Reds. How badly do you need a third-baseman? Of the 182 players this year with at least 275 PA, your most-regular starter, Santiago Espinal, ranked ahead of just TWO by OPS+. An All-Star in 2022, it has more or less been all downhill from there for Espinal. However, the return of Noelvi Marté from an oblique strain has meant results from the hot corner have been much better for Cincinnati. He had a year to forget in 2024, serving an 80-game suspension for PEDs, and had just a 49 OPS+ on his return. Is his 136 OPS+ this season legit? If so, then the Reds would seem to be in no need of Suarez. Might depend on whether or not someone asks Marté to pee in a cup though.
By a tick, the Cubs are the most likely of the eleven teams on today’s and yesterday’s lists to make the post-season. They’re 51⁄2 games up on the 7th-placed Giants, and it would take a major collapse to miss out. But things get much tougher in the playoffs, and that’s why they have been linked to Suarez. Rookie Matt Shaw has been a huge disappointment at the plate, with a 62 OPS+, though his defense has kept Shaw’s overall value above replacement. He could end up going on a Pete Crow-Armstrong like tear down the stretch. But is that a chance Craig Counsell and the Cubs’ front-office are willing to take? One downside: their farm system isn’t well-stocked with near MLB-ready pitching, the D-backs’ biggest need.
The combination of Mark Vientos and Brett Baty at third has not been a good one for the Mets this season. By OPS, their output of .650 there ranks 24th in the majors: the D-backs, almost entirely powered by Suarez, at #1 at .848. Suarez would certainly represent a better option, and if they’re not keen on his defense, also gives them another option they can use at DH. Plus – and let’s not ignore this – snatching away someone the Yankees are also targeting is never seen as a bad thing in Queens. See: Soto, Juan. If the two New York clubs were to get into a bidding war for Suarez, I’m sure Mike Hazen would be happy to hold their jackets while they get on with it.
This is a bonus year for St. Louis, who weren’t expected to contend, yet find themselves just 1.5 games out at the break. They could be sellers rather than buyers, though I’m not sure why the Cards score so low by bWAA. Nolan Arenado may be a shadow of his former self, but has been worth a respectable 1.3 bWAR while starting 80 games at third. Given they’re paying him $32 million, I can’t see him sitting. And while the ten-time Gold Glover (albeit three years removed from his last one) isn’t what he used to be on defense either, he has hardly been a butcher, so moving him to DH seems counter-productive. Indeed there have been suggestions Arenado could be dealt away, though he has full no-trade protection.
Philadelphia has a generally strong roster, and are probably in need of bullpen help more than at third-base. Alec Bohm has been the starter there, and has been okay. As the guys at PHLY Sports noted, bringing Suarez in would provide a nice right-handed power threat to pair with All-Star MVP Kyle Schwarber from the other side. However, it would require them to shuffle a lot of moving parts around. On the other hand, the Phillies offense this year is nothing special: all told, 18th in the league at -1.6 bWAA. It’s been their starting pitching (first, at +10.7 bWAA – almost five wins better than anyone else) which has got them this far. Adding Suarez would certainly kick the bats higher up the rankings.
Last, and certainly not least, the Yankees. You’d not know from the yipping of fans in the Bronx that their team is almost certain to make the playoffs. But to the Yankees, success is measured only in rings, and the 16-year gap since their last World Series win is the longest since the mid-nineties. Third-base has been an obvious hole, with no particular filling – nobody has even 125 PA at the spot, noted home-run hitter Jazz Chisholm seeing most. Jon Heyman wrote on Tuesday, “The Yankees’ top target for third base should be as obvious as their need. It has to be Diamondbacks All-Star Eugenio Suárez.” If we can prise away someone from them like prospect Cam Schlittler, I’d call it a done deal.
Conclusions
I strongly expect Suarez to go to one of the Yankees, Cubs or Mets – and I would probably put the three candidates in that order. None of those teams exactly “need” him for the stretch run – the Mets have the lowest playoff odds, and even they are still at 85%. But adding Eugenio to any of their rosters, would certainly make them stronger in the post-season. This is definitely a good situation for the D-backs, because all of those clubs will feel pressured to make moves before the deadline. Having one team interested in a player is nice: but when you get two, or better still three, then there a good chance of a bidding war which can allow the selling team to cash in.
I’m sure I wasn’t the only person to hold their breath after Suarez got hit on the hand in the All-Star Game. Fortunately, he seems to have come through intact, going by the subsequent bare-handed play he made, and I strongly expect trade talk to intensify over the next couple of weeks, until the trigger on a deal gets pulled. Of all the players on the D-backs roster, Suarez is the one I am most certain will be gone by the end of the month. It is a shame, because his first half was certainly one for the record books. But if he can be turned into something which can help the Diamondbacks in the longer term, that might be a better legacy for him than Just Dingerz.